Good morning, this is Sue Burak with the Eastern Sierra Avalanche
   Center with an avalanche advisory posted on Saturday March 22, 2008.

   MOUNTAIN WEATHER

   Calm winds and daytime highs running 5-12 F higher yesterday made for a
   pleasant day in the mountains. Today will be another pleasant day with
   a few degrees of warming and clear skies. Highs at the 8,000 to 10,000
   ft elevations will range in the low 40s to 50 F with northeast winds
   gusting to 30 mph. Tonights lows will be in the low to mid 20s.

   Elevations above 10,000 ft will have clear skies with moderate east
   winds gusting up to 35 mph. Expect highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
   All elevations will see night time temperatures dropping to around
   20-25F tonight.

   Sunday will be another nice day with temperatures a couple of degrees
   warmer than today. Southwest winds will pick up tomorrow though, with
   ridgetop gusts around 35 F.

   The outlook for the last week of March is changing from a dry forecast
   to an unsettled one with the chance of snow by Wednesday. Forecasters
   are hinting at a winter storm for next weekend, billing it as the last
   major storm of the winter. If it doesnt snow again, the snowpack will
   be both below and above what is considered normal for April 1
   conditions. Mammoth Pass is below normal while Rock Creek Lakes and
   South Lake are a few inches above their April 1 averages. Bishop Pass
   and Gem Pass are also below normal snowpack water contents for the end
   of March.

   SNOWPACK AND AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

   After a cold and windy day Thursday with hard snow surfaces, yesterdays
   sun and lack of wind allowed solar insolation to go to work on east,
   south and west aspects. Though north and northeast slopes remained
   firm, crusts on high elevation southern aspects had melted some. Only
   lower elevations have true spring corn snow with elevations above 9,500
   to 10,000 ft having a spring like texture due to the many days of
   strong north winds.

   A couple of snow pits dug yesterday on a south to southeast slope at
   10,000 and 12,000 ft showed multiple crusts in the upper 18 inches of
   the snowpack. With so many potential sliding layers, one can ask why
   dont all slopes avalanche when surface snowmelt percolates down to one
   of these prime sliding layers and decreases the strength of the snow or
   changes the mechanical properties.

   There is no good answer to this question. Meltwater percolation is
   notoriously complicated but the truth is snow scientists really dont
   understand wet snow avalanches. This is due to the fact that dry slab
   avalanches kill more people and most snow scientists love to ski power
   so wet snow slides have been neglected in most research.

   What we do know is that wet slides generally occur after the upper
   couple of inches of the snow becomes wet and mushy and you feel like
   you are breaking trail. Right now, the slopes to watch out for are the
   ones that receive the longest and greatest amount of solar radiation-
   east, south and west. Later in the spring, northern aspects will become
   an avalanche concern.

   For today and Sunday, avoid high elevation sun exposed slopes in the
   afternoon when the snow is mushy and you can start mini releases with a
   ski cut or traverse. Most of us enjoy skiing gullies and couloirs which
   become terrain traps if you trigger and wet slide and go for a ride.
   Cartwheeling into rocks on the side of a gully could ruin a perfectly
   fine day.

   BOTTOM LINE

   For the morning today and for Easter Sunday, the avalanche danger
   rating is LOW on all aspects and elevations in the morning with good
   overnight freezing temperatures. By mid day, the avalanche danger
   increases to MODERATE in sun exposed terrain steeper than 35 degrees.

   Please note that the avalanche danger rating in this advisory expires
   in 24 hours. This advisory is our best interpretation of snow pack
   conditions and NWS forecasts issued today. Backcountry travelers should
   be aware that elevation and geographic distinctions are approximate and
   that a transition zone exists between upper and lower elevations.

   Avalanches do not happen by accident and most human involvement is a
   matter of choice not chance. Most avalanche accidents are caused by
   slab avalanches that are triggered by the victim of member of the
   victim's party. Even small slides can be dangerous. Always practice
   route finding skills and carry avalanche rescue gear. Remember that
   avalanche danger ratings are only general guidelines. Distinctions
   between geographic areas, elevations, slope aspects and slope angles
   should be made.