Good morning, this is Sue Burak with the Inyo National Forests Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center with an advisory for Monday, May 5, 2008. SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT The road to Horseshoe Meadows is now open to the Forest Service gate just below the meadow yesterday. There is still snow on the campground roads. The daily entry quotas for overnight trips in the John Muir and Ansel Adams Wildernesses are in effect as of May 1. Daily entry quotas for both day use and overnight use in the Whitney Zone also went into effect May 1. For reservations, contact the Inyo National Forest wilderness reservation page: http://www.fs.fed.us/r5/inyo/recreation/wild/permitsres.shtml During May, the North Fork of Lone Pine Creek, George Ck/Williamson (up to May 15 closure date) and Shepherd Pass will have the reserve-able portion of the quota (60% of total quota) filled on some days. The remaining 40% of the daily entry quota is for walk-ins on a first-come first-served basis. Here's the link to the web page that provides regularly updated information on dates the reserve-able quota is filled: http://www.fs.fed.us/r5/inyo/recreation/wild/otheravail.shtml MOUNTAIN WEATHER On Sunday, scattered showers and thunderstorms fired over most of the eastern Sierra. Expect more of the same today with slightly warmer temperatures. The moist and unstable atmosphere will persist through Wednesday with scattered showers expected in the morning and late afternoon. Dew points are up this morning Temperature forecasts are puzzling for the first part of the week. Mono County has higher forecasted temperatures than similar elevations in Inyo County. For the 9,000 ft level, Reno NWS forecasters expect temperatures in the low 50s today, climbing to 60 F on Tuesday. Nights at 9,000 ft will barely reach freezing. For the 9,000 ft elevations in Inyo County, highs are forecasted to be in the low to mid 40s with lows in the mid 20s. The same difference exists for the higher elevations above 10,000 ft. For Mono County, highs are expected to be in the upper 40s with lows in the upper 20s. Higher elevations in Inyo County are expected to reach the mid 30s for most of the week. If the weird difference in temperatures between counties is real, then high elevations in Inyo County may not soften much the next couple of days and the skiing around the Tioga Pass area could be slush by mid morning. SNOWPACK AND AVALANCHE DISCUSSION The most often heard word for skiing and riding conditions this weekend in the Tioga Pass area was FIRM. Yesterday was cooler and cloudy for most of the day compared to Saturday. Both days, firm snow was found at most elevations and aspects above 10,000 ft. Yesterday morning, I saw a large group head out to ski Ellery Bowl and all members were wearing helmets for the ascent. The Tioga Pass area was similar to a daily scene from the Wasatch, with overflowing parking areas and numerous parties heading to the usual popular locations: False White, Solstice, cornice drops by Gaylor and firm snow in the Powerhouse chute. One unsuspecting party dropped into the Dana Couloir and discovered blue ice the length of the couloir. Depending on careful aspect selection, one could find softer snow on southeast aspects. Northern aspects were firm. I also found wet saturated snow on an east facing slope that avalanches regularly during the winter. The snowpack was only 16-18 inches deep and even the old depth hoar at the base was rounded. One of our local skiers had triggered a nice wet slide last Monday or Tuesday when temperatures were in the 50s at the higher elevations. He skied over a rock band on a 40 degree slope where the snow was shallow from being repeatedly avalanched over during the winter. Though only about 50 across at the top of the slide, it flowed through some whitebark pines, over another rock band and left a nice debris pile about 200 yards from the Tioga Pass road. Where the snow was shallow, it was not supportable. A few hundred yards away in the Bennettville gullies, one party found firm conditions on a similar aspect and elevation that is not scoured by avalanches. Depending on how the temperature forecast pans out today, today could be similar to the weekend or about 5-10 degrees warmer. Since there is more uncertainty in the weather forecast than usual, I will keep the avalanche danger rating at LOW for the morning, increasing to MODERATE on steep slopes that soften early in the day. At this time, the avalanche danger appears to be isolated to steep slopes under and around rock outcrops and rollovers. Avoid areas around exposed rocks as melt water is flowing over rock formations under the snow on east, south and west aspects. BOTTOM LINE Since there is more uncertainty in the weather forecast than usual, I will keep the avalanche danger rating at LOW for the morning, increasing to MODERATE on steep slopes that soften early in the day. At this time, the avalanche danger appears to be isolated to steep slopes under and around rock outcrops and rollovers. Avoid areas around exposed rocks as melt water is flowing over rock formations under the snow on east, south and west aspects. Please note that the avalanche danger rating in this advisory expires in 24 hours. This advisory is our best interpretation of snow pack conditions and NWS forecasts issued today. Backcountry travelers should be aware that elevation and geographic distinctions are approximate and that a transition zone exists between upper and lower elevations. Avalanches do not happen by accident and most human involvement is a matter of choice not chance. Most avalanche accidents are caused by slab avalanches that are triggered by the victim of member of the victim's party. Even small slides can be dangerous. Always practice route finding skills and carry avalanche rescue gear. Remember that avalanche danger ratings are only general guidelines. Distinctions between geographic areas, elevations, slope aspects and slope angles should be made.