Good morning, this is Sue Burak with the Inyo National Forest Eastern
   Sierra Avalanche Center with an advisory for Saturday, February 28,
   2009.

   MOUNTAIN WEATHER

   Enjoy the dry and warm weather today because things are going to
   change. Cloudy skies today will give way to clouds and the chance of
   snow and rain beginning tomorrow night. Storms are gathering and
   organizing over the eastern Pacific but between the position of the
   main low and southwesterly flow, the storm will carry most of the
   precipitation into the Tahoe area north. Yesterdays forecast of up to a
   foot of new snow along the Sierra Crest has been downgraded and perhaps
   even worse, snow levels have gone up. The southern Sierra will see snow
   showers above 10,000 ft with more snow accumulations to the west of the
   crest. The best chances for snowfall will be Sunday and Monday nights
   and will be limited to the highest elevations.

   Skies will be partly sunny or mostly cloudy today with highs at the
   8,000 to 9,000 ft elevations in the mid to upper 40s. Dont be surprised
   to see highs right around 50 F in the Mammoth, June Mountain and Bishop
   Creek areas.

   Higher elevations will be warmer today Look for highs in the mid 30s to
   upper 30s and low 40s at the higher elevations. Southerly winds will be
   picking up by the afternoon with gusts up to 55 mph by the afternoon.

   Next week looks interesting with stormy weather forecasted for
   Tuesday/Wednesday. NWS in Reno usually downplays long range forecasts
   but talked about the potential for a widespread significant snow event
   at all elevations from Thursday night through Friday, but also caution
   the storm is almost a week away and many things in the atmosphere can
   change between now and next Thursday.

   SNOWPACK AND AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

   Dry clear weather and the passage of time have allowed the alpine
   snowpack to gain some strength. The avalanche danger from human
   triggered wind slab avalanches is now MODERATE on all steep north to
   east facing slopes above 9,000 ft in the Mammoth Lakes Basin and 8,500
   ft in the June Mountain backcountry. Yesterday, we stomped around and
   did numerous snowpit tests and ended up with ragged shears and
   inconclusive results.

   Though the avalanche danger from human triggered avalanches in wind
   loaded terrain has decreased to MODERATE, be alert for localized,
   individual unstable slopes. Use good travel habits like putting one
   person on a slope at a time and spread out through a steep walled
   gully.

   Probing is an easy way to find the buried rain/wet snow layer. In all
   the places I visited the last few days, the layer is about half way to
   2/3 of the way down in the pack, whether the pack is deep or shallow.
   Take the time today to find this layer before you ski, if possible,
   take a look, talk to your partners and minimize your risk by using good
   travel techniques and sound decision making.

   Skiers and riders in areas with shallow snowpacks in areas north and
   south of the Mammoth/June regions need to be aware that this lens comes
   with a very thin layer of well developed facets above it. This is a
   perfect recipe for an avalanche- a weak layer, a sliding layer and you,
   the trigger.

   Be aware that todays direct sun and slow melting of the snow surface
   can increase the stress on a slope with buried weak layers and thus may
   increase the chances of triggering slides on steep slopes as the day
   progresses. Watch out for wet snow avalanches on all steep slopes and
   avoid rock outcrops- rocks retain heat from the sun and can be the
   starting point for point release and wet slab slides.

   The avalanche danger rating today for wet snow sluffs and slabs is
   MODERATE on all steep slopes as the suns energy melts the snow
   surfaces. Small wet snow releases can move downslope, trigger the weak
   faceted snow below the snow and create a wet slab avalanche. Recently,
   this has been occurring on many slopes.

   BOTTOM LINE

   Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be MODERATE above treeline
   on steep windloaded and northwest to east facing slopes in the Mammoth
   and June Lake backcountry. The MODERATE danger rating means there are
   localized or individual slopes, gullies or bowls that can be unstable
   and it is possible you could trigger an avalanche.

   The avalanche danger rating today for wet snow sluffs and slabs is
   MODERATE on all steep slopes as the suns energy melts the snow
   surfaces. Small wet snow releases can move downslope, trigger the weak
   faceted snow below the snow and create a wet slab avalanche.

   Please note that the avalanche danger rating in this advisory expires
   in 24 hours. Backcountry travelers should be aware that elevation and
   geographic distinctions are approximate and that a transition zone
   exists between upper and lower elevations.

   Avalanches do not happen by accident and most human involvement is a
   matter of choice not chance. Most avalanche accidents are caused by
   slab avalanches that are triggered by the victim of member of the
   victim's party. Even small slides can be dangerous. Always practice
   route finding skills and carry avalanche rescue gear. Remember that
   avalanche danger ratings are only general guidelines. Distinctions
   between geographic areas, elevations, slope aspects and slope angles
   should be made.