FALL AVALANCHE STATEMENT updated November 18^th, 2007.


 Climate experts continue to observe "La Nina" conditions in the
 Pacific Ocean. This usually means cold and wet conditions for the
 Pacific Northwest and dry conditions for the south and southwest. Mt.
 Shasta often benefits during La Nina conditions, but sometimes the wet
 weather stays north. Moderate La Nina conditions are expected to
 continue over the next few months with a change early in 2008.


 With funding from the Friends of the Mt. Shasta Avalanche Center,
 Snowdog Engineering was able to upgrade the communication system for
 the Mt. Eddy weather station and do some maintenance at all of the
 other weather stations this Fall. However, we recently had lightning
 damage to our main radio which has prevented communication with all of
 our weather stations. We are diligently working on repairing this
 problem.



 Matt Hill, one of the founders of the Mt. Shasta Avalanche Center, has
 moved on and his position does not look like it will be filled this
 winter. With only 1 forecaster, we will provide avalanche advisories
 3-4 days a week this winter instead of daily. Your input and
 observations of weather and snow pack are needed more than ever this
 winter! (530)926-9614


 

 Mountain Weather:

 Precipitation so far this water year (July 1 - June 30) has dropped to
 just below normal (~71% in town). Around 5 inches of water has fallen
 on the mountain with patchy snow at tree line and 2-3 feet on the
 upper mountain. Strong winds, up to 80 mph at tree line, have
 occurred this fall, carrying more snow to the east side. Wind slabs
 may exist on easterly aspects on the upper mountain. We usually have
 enough snow to ski on by late November or early December when we will
 begin providing avalanche advisories 3-4 days a week. Fall is often a
 time of strong winds on Mt. Shasta and most climbers recently have
 been forced to retreat. With thin snow pack, rock fall is continuing
 in Avalanche Gulch.


 Some things to consider:

 Backcountry travelers should make terrain, weather and snow pack
 evaluations as they travel over snow covered terrain. Remember that
 seemingly insignificant slides may be dangerous. Almost half of all
 avalanche fatalities occur in slides traveling less than 300 feet.


 Fall Season Watch Outs!

 * Surface sluffs and wind slabs
 * Shallowly buried rocks and trees can cause serious damage or
 injury.

 * Sink holes around brush and small trees can be dangerous.

 * Snow bridges over crevasses can be touchy and unsupportable.

 * Shallow snowpack with cold air temperatures can produce unstable
 snow


 These are just a few things you should watch out for when traveling
 during the early part of the winter season.



 The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include: 1)
 Recent/current avalanche activity 2) Whumpfing sounds and shooting
 cracks 3) Recent/current heavy snowfall 4) Strong winds transporting
 snow 5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.



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