Avalanche Advisory for Friday, January 4, 2008 at 7:00 am By Eric White Special Note: An Avalanche Warning is posted for the next 24 hours. With 2-3 feet of snow fall over the last 24 hours and another 3-4 feet expected in the coming 24 hours along with very strong winds, both natural and human triggered avalanches are likely above 5000 ft. A blizzard warning has been posted by the NWS for Mt. Shasta and continues through 7am Saturday . The Details: This Season: We had an early thin snow pack with December bringing near normal precipitation and 3.5 feet of snow along with strong winds above tree line. Our precipitation is around 110% of normal since September 1. We currently have around 4-6 feet of snow on the ground below tree line and from 0-15 feet of snow above tree line. We are in a "La Nina" climate condition which often means wetter than normal winters in our area and expectations are for above normal precipitation into the spring of 2008. Weather Observations: We have heavy snow fall and 7-12 inches of snow in town (3500 ft.). It is currently 34F in town with gusty SE winds. Mt. Shasta - We have 50+ inches of snow on the ground near tree line with 24 inches of new snow over the last 24 hours. 7 inches of settlement has occurred over the last 24 hours and temperatures have ranged between 25F to 28F at 7000 ft. and it is currently 27F. Winds this morning at tree line were estimated at around 85 mph from the S, and 40 mph from the S below tree line. On the upper mountain winds are estimated this morning at 65+ mph from the SW. Castle/Mt. Eddy - Mt. Eddy received 24 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. We estimate that Castle Lake received 2-3 feet of new snow over the last 24 hours. We estimate around 4 ft. of snow on the ground and a temperature at Castle Lake this morning of 30F. Weather Forecast: A very strong surge in the current storm cycle is hitting us this morning. This is driven by a 200 knot jet pushing this blizzard through Northern California. It will move SE today into the Sierra and will taper here tomorrow morning. More surges will continue into the weekend with very cold air bringing snow to the Sacramento valley, however, the greatest amounts will be today. The snow level will fluctuate around town (3-4000 ft.) today and then drop this evening to 2500 and down to 500 to 1000 ft. tomorrow morning. Today we will see 3-5 feet of snow fall at mid elevations. Winds at tree line will be 90 mph this morning from the SSW and then around 60-65 mph from the SW most of the day, slowing to 40 mph tomorrow morning. Below tree line, winds will be 25-30 mph from the SE/S/SW, gusting to 50+ mph. Temperatures at mid elevations will be in the mid to upper 20's today and drop the teens tonight. Snow Pack: Heavy snow fall and strong winds (2 of the classic red flags of avalanche danger) will continue to stress the snow pack and natural avalanches will be possible over the next 24 hours. Heavy snow fall means 2-4 inches an hour, which we had at times over the last 24 hours and is likely today. When I went out yesterday morning winds were maching below tree line from the SE and wind slabs were forming rapidly on WNW aspects. This is an unusual storm and has raised concerns all over the state for floods, wind damage and avalanches. Unusual weather creates unusual avalanches and you need to use unusual precautions in the back country today!!! (Doug Fesler quote). Remember, the access roads to Castle Lake and Bunny Flat are not plowed on a regular schedule and are expected to be closed today. Climbers should wait for better weather and safer avalanche conditions before attempting to climb Mt. Shasta. Some important thoughts: This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires at midnight tonight. As always, use safe travel practices: travel with a partner, travel one at a time in suspect areas, go from one island of safety to another, choose safe routes, wear a transceiver, carry a shovel and probe, and know how to use your gear!