Avalanche Advisory for Saturday, January 5, 2008 at 6:30 am By Eric White Special Note: A Heavy Snow Warning has been posted for Mt. Shasta through 6pm tonight. As of 0830 hrs on 1/5/08 both the Everitt Mem. Hwy. to Bunny Flat and the Castle Lake roads remain closed and gated. Down trees, deep snow and large wind drifts, along with heavy snow fall on priority roads, will keep these closed all day. The Details: This Season: We had an early thin snow pack with December bringing near normal precipitation and 3.5 feet of snow along with strong winds above tree line. Our precipitation is around 109% of normal since September 1. A strong storm series in early January deposited 4-8 feet of snow with huge wind drifts. We are in a "La Nina" climate condition which often means wetter than normal winters in our area and expectations are for above normal precipitation into the spring of 2008. Weather Observations: We have snow showers and 2-10 inches of snow in town this morning. It is currently 30F in Mt. Shasta and 34F in Dunsmuir. Mt. Shasta - We are measuring 69 inches of snow on the ground near tree line with 21-27 inches of new snow over the last 24 hours. We have a storm total of 4-6 feet. 7 inches of settlement has occurred over the last 24 hours and temperatures have ranged between 21F to 28F at 7000 ft. and it is currently 21F. Winds this morning at tree line were estimated at around 45 mph from the SW, and 25 mph from the SSW below tree line. On the upper mountain winds are estimated this morning at 50+ mph from the SW. Castle/Mt. Eddy - Mt. Eddy received 34 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. We estimate that Castle Lake received 2-3 feet of new snow over the last 24 hours and a storm total of 4-6 feet. We estimate around 5 ft. of snow on the ground and a temperature at Castle Lake this morning of 25F. <> Weather Forecast: The main front has passed south of our area and is in the southern Sierra this morning where very heavy snow fall occurred overnight. However, the strong jet stream continues to feed our area and a long moisture plume out into the central Pacific will continue to bring wet weather to Mt. Shasta today. We can expect snow showers today and a surge this evening. Things will taper again tomorrow morning and another surge will bring cold air and more snow Sunday afternoon and evening. Monday will be a short break with a strong warm front moving in Tuesday. Today we can expect snow showers with 1-2 feet of snow possible over the next 24 hours. The snow level will drop today to 2500 ft and possibly down to Redding (500 ft.) tomorrow morning. Winds below tree line will be 20 mph from the SSW over the next 24 hours, while above tree line winds will be 35-45 from the WSW with gusts to 50 mph. The wind chill on the upper mountain today will be around -46F. Temperatures at mid elevations today will be in the teens to low 20's. <>Snow Pack: Heavy snow fall and strong winds (2 of the classic red flags of avalanche danger) occurred yesterday with 4-5 inches per hour during the peak. With that type of weather, natural avalanches occurred. 2 adjunct forecasters were able to make it to 7000 ft. yesterday and reported shooting cracks and easy failures during stability tests on easterly slopes at only 25 degrees. Although the winds have slowed down, they are still plenty strong enough to easily transport snow and continue to load NW/N/NE/E/SE aspects at different elevations. Swirling winds on the upper mountain will load many aspects. Although we have decreased from High to Considerable avalanche danger at all aspects above 5000 ft., this should not be taken lightly. The snow pack is still adjusting to its' new load which continues to deepen today and natural avalanches will be possible. Unstable slabs will be found in steep terrain and you should be increasingly cautious near these areas! <> Avalanche Specialist communicating by radio during blizzard conditions on Mt.Shasta 01/03/08. Avalanche Specialist, Eric White, reporting conditions during the start of the blizzard conditions on Mt. Shasta. 01/03/08 Some important thoughts: This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires at midnight tonight. As always, use safe travel practices: travel with a partner, travel one at a time in suspect areas, go from one island of safety to another, choose safe routes, wear a transceiver, carry a shovel and probe, and know how to use your gear!