Up-Coming Events: Today: January 12, 9 am - Shasta Mountain Guides offers a free, Womens' transceiver clinic. Meet at The Fifth Season. January 18, 6 pm - Free Avalanche Awareness presentation at the Mt. Shasta Library 1-1.5 hours January 19, 9am - Free Avalanche Transceiver clinic. Meet at the Fifth Season and be prepared to travel on snow. January 26, 6 pm - 6th Annual Snow Ball Fundraising event put on by Friends of the Mt. Shasta Avalanche Center and sponsored by Timberworks and Chitwood Energy Management at the Mt. Shasta City Park with Dinner, music, dancing, all types of beverages and tons of raffle and silent auction items. Best party of the year! January 27, Flying Squirrel Classic - Telemark and Rando fun race; costumes optional; backcountry demo gear available. Benefit for Friends of the Mt. Shasta Avalanche Center and sponsored by The Fifth Season. Registration 11:30-12:30, race at 1:00 pm. Best fun race of the season! Special Note: As of 9 am on 1/10/08, it looks like both the Everitt and Castle Lake roads will continue to remain closed for an extended time period. We will keep you informed when they open. Avalanche Advisory for Saturday, January 12, 2008 at 6:25 am By Eric White The Details: This Season: We had an early thin snow pack with December bringing near normal precipitation and 3.5 feet of snow along with strong winds above tree line. Our precipitation is around 110% of normal since September 1. A strong storm series in early January deposited 4-8 feet of snow with huge wind drifts. We are in a "La Nina" climate condition which often means wetter than normal winters in our area and expectations are for above normal precipitation into the spring of 2008. Weather Observations: We have overcast skies in town this morning, and it is currently 33F in Mt. Shasta and 34F in Dunsmuir. Mt. Shasta - We are measuring 73 inches of snow on the ground near tree line with no new snow over the last 24 hours. We had a storm total of 84 inches or 7 feet from 1/3-1/10. 3 inches of settlement has occurred over the last 24 hours and temperatures have ranged between 18F to 33F at 7000 ft. and it is currently 26F. Winds this morning at tree line were estimated at around 25-30 mph from the W, and 20-25 mph from the SW below tree line. On the upper mountain winds are estimated this morning at 30 mph from the W. Castle/Mt. Eddy - Mt. Eddy received no new snow in the last 24 hours. We estimate around 5.5 ft. of snow on the ground and a temperature at Castle Lake this morning of 23F. Weather Forecast: A weak storm is moving in this morning and the front is right on the coast line. This storm is also moving in a westerly direction over the State of Jefferson which is unfavorable for precipitation in the Mt. Shasta area. Radar this morning shows light precipitation west of our area and light to moderate in the coast range. Models predict up to 1 inch of snow possible today above 6000 ft, mostly before noon. High pressure will begin to develop off the coast and bring warmer air in tonight and tomorrow. A weak storm will bring mostly clouds to our area Monday evening with dry weather expected through the week. Today we can expect cloudy skies in the morning with light snowfall at mid and upper elevations and light rain at lower elevations and temperatures at mid elevations in the mid 20's warming to the mid 30's. Winds today below tree line will be light from the SW, while above tree line, winds will be 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph from the WNW and moving to the NW later today. Winds on the upper mountain will be 40 mph from the WNW in the morning and 30-35 mph from the NW later today and tonight. Snow Pack: Warming temperatures continues to drop snow out of trees and make the top 4 inches very heavy with difficult crusts on northerly aspects. Yesterday I studied the snow at lower elevations (4500-5000 ft.) and found 30% water content in the top layer of snow and 12-15% below that. During stability tests I was able to release a solid 1.5 ft. deep slab. This was on a northerly aspect, 30-32 degrees and showed moderate stability (Rutschblock R4, Q1-2). Examining the results from a Rutschblock stability test 01/11/08 on Mt. Shasta. Test results from a Rutschblock today (1/11/08) at low elevation. This 50 cm slab failed on the first jump during a Rutschblock test (R4) and had a Quality 1-2 shear (clean failure, smooth plane, travelled as a unit 1 foot). 30 degree, N facing slope at 4600 ft. Rollers and snow falling out of trees were reported up to 8000 ft. yesterday. Nick went to the Klamath mountains and found challenging crusts with moderate to good stability up to 7000 ft. Nick Meyers studying the snow in the Trinity Alps, 01/11/08 Nick Meyers studying the snow in the Trinity Alps 1/11/08. West aspect, 6900 ft., 34 degree slope R6 (jump mid-block) 25 cm failure during Rutschblock showing fair stability. Today, rain in the morning will add instability to the snow and expect some mashed potatoes a lower elevations (4-6000 ft.) and breakable crusts at mid elevations (6-9000 ft.). Wind slabs forming yesterday morning on E and S aspects will still be sensitive to human triggering at upper elevations (8-14,000 ft.) Some important thoughts: This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires at midnight tonight. As always, use safe travel practices: travel with a partner, travel one at a time in suspect areas, go from one island of safety to another, choose safe routes, wear a transceiver, carry a shovel and probe, and know how to use your gear!