Avalanche Watch Posted 1/25-1/26 Up-Coming Events: January 26, 6 pm - 6th Annual Snow Ball Fundraising event put on by Friends of the Mt. Shasta Avalanche Center and sponsored by Timberworks and Chitwood Energy Management at the Mt. Shasta City Park with Dinner, music, dancing, all types of beverages and tons of raffle and silent auction items. Best party of the year! January 27, Flying Squirrel Classic - Telemark and Rando fun race; costumes optional; backcountry demo gear available. Benefit for Friends of the Mt. Shasta Avalanche Center and sponsored by The Fifth Season. Registration 11:30-12:30, race at 1:00 pm. Best fun race of the season! Avalanche Advisory for Friday, January 25, 2008 at 6:45 am By Eric White The Details: This Season: We had an early thin snow pack with December bringing near normal precipitation and 3.5 feet of snow along with strong winds above tree line. Our precipitation is around 94% of normal since September 1. A strong storm series in early January deposited 4-8 feet of snow with major wind scouring above tree line. We are in a "La Nina" climate condition which often means wetter than normal winters in our area and expectations are for above normal precipitation into the spring of 2008. Weather Observations: We have light snowfall with calm winds in town this morning, 8-10 inches of new snow in town, and it is currently 29F in Mt. Shasta and 33F in Dunsmuir. Mt. Shasta - We are measuring 73 inches of snow on the ground near tree line with 11 inches of new snow over the last 24 hours with 4-5 % water content (6-7% in town). 2+ inches of settlement has occurred over the last 24 hours and temperatures have ranged between 18F to 22F at 7000 ft. and it is currently a 21F. Winds this morning were 15 mph below tree line from the SW. Above tree line winds were around 25 mph from the SSE and on the upper mountain winds were 10-20 mph from the SSE. Castle/Mt. Eddy - Mt. Eddy received 9 inches of new snow and 5 inches of settlement in the last 24 hours. We had reports of 10 inches of new snow late yesterday at Castle Lake. We estimate around 5.5 ft. of snow on the ground. The temperature on Mt. Eddy this morning is 17F. Temperatures near Castle Lake have been between 20F-25F over the last 24 hours and currently are around 25F. Weather Forecast: The closed low pressure storm is parked off the northern California coast with a strong southerly flow moving up the coast range and central valley. These types of systems can have a mind of their own which leaves some uncertainty in the forecast, but they can be very strong, especially for the Castle Lake and Mt. Shasta area. Right now it looks like the strongest part of this storm will hit our area this afternoon and continue through Saturday morning. Snow showers will continue through most the weekend, decreasing Sunday night and Monday. Wet and unsettled weather is expected through most of next week. For today, we can expect snow with 5 inches by this afternoon and 15-20+ inches tomorrow morning. The snow level will rise today to 2000 to 2500 ft. and around 3500 ft. tomorrow morning. Temperatures at mid elevations (7-10,000 ft.) will warm to low to mid 20's today and the upper 20's at lower elevations. Winds below tree line will continue from the SE at 15 mph picking up late tonight and early tomorrow morning to 30 mph. Above tree line, winds will 30-40 mph from the S and SE, picking up tonight to 45-55 mph from the S and SW. On the upper mountain winds will be 35 mph, increasing to 70 mph from the SW. Snow Pack: We had some white smoke yesterday with very light snow (4-5%) on top of a crust. We had some reports yesterday of shooting cracks and wind loading to north aspects at 6000 ft. I observed easy failures in the new snow at 7000 ft. (Compression test 1-3 taps in new snow) with reports similar to slightly more moderate at 6000 ft. (Rutschblock test R3 in new snow). I also found a weak layer of facets underneath the crust in the old snow and found failures there under moderate force. With the expected heavy snow fall this evening and increasing SE/S/SW winds, we can expect the avalanche danger to increase. Be observant for and avoid areas with any of the 5 Red Flags of avalanche danger (see below). These will be most likely on NW/N/NE aspects, on slopes greater than 30 degrees, at all elevations, with greater wind loading above tree line. Some important thoughts: This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires at midnight tonight. As always, use safe travel practices: travel with a partner, travel one at a time in suspect areas, go from one island of safety to another, choose safe routes, wear a transceiver, carry a shovel and probe, and know how to use your gear!