Avalanche Watch Posted 1/25-1/26 Up-Coming Events: TONIGHT!!! January 26, 6 pm - 6th Annual Snow Ball Fundraising event put on by Friends of the Mt. Shasta Avalanche Center and sponsored by Timberworks and Chitwood Energy Management at the Mt. Shasta City Park with Dinner, music, dancing, all types of beverages and tons of raffle and silent auction items. Best party of the year! January 27, Flying Squirrel Classic - Telemark and Rando fun race; costumes optional; backcountry demo gear available. Benefit for Friends of the Mt. Shasta Avalanche Center and sponsored by The Fifth Season. Registration 11:30-12:30, race at 1:00 pm. Best fun race of the season! February 1, 6 pm Free Avalanche Awareness presentation at the Mt. Shasta Library. 1-1.5 hours February 2, 9 am Free Avalanche Transciever clinic. Meet at The Fifth Season and dress to be on the snow. Demos available. Road info: The Everitt Mem. Hwy. closed today at 10:00 am. Avalanche Advisory for Saturday, January 26, 2008 at 6:45 am By Eric White The Details: This Season: We had an early thin snow pack with December bringing near normal precipitation and 3.5 feet of snow along with strong winds above tree line. Our precipitation is around 96% of normal since September 1. A strong storm series in early January deposited 4-8 feet of snow with major wind scouring above tree line. We are in a "La Nina" climate condition which often means wetter than normal winters in our area and expectations are for above normal precipitation into the spring of 2008. Weather Observations: We have rain/snow mix in town this morning, 2 slushy inches of new snow in town (0.86 inches H2O), and it is currently 35F in Mt. Shasta and 33F in Dunsmuir. Mt. Shasta - We are measuring 79 inches of snow on the ground near tree line with 6 inches of new snow over the last 24 hours. However, I would estimate that 9-12 inches fell with 3-6 inches of settlement over the last 24 hours due to heavier snow on light snow. Temperatures have ranged between 21F to 29F at 7000 ft. and it is currently a 28F. Winds this morning are estimated at 20 mph below tree line from the SE. Above tree line winds are estimated at 45 mph from the S and on the upper mountain winds are estimated at 50 mph from the S. Castle/Mt. Eddy - Mt. Eddy received 9 inches of new snow and 8 inches of settlement in the last 24 hours. We estimate around 5.5 ft. of snow on the ground. The temperature on Mt. Eddy this morning is 29F. Temperatures near Castle Lake have been between 25F-31F over the last 24 hours and currently are around 31F. Weather Forecast: The closed low pressure has moved south and west over the last 24 hours and is now feeding heavier precipitation to the coastline of northern California to Brookings, Oregon. It will continue to bring snow to Mt. Shasta today with heavier snow fall in the Trinity Alps and Marble Mountains. A cold front will tie in with our current storm tonight and bring heavy snow fall and lower snow levels Sunday. Things should ease up Monday with wet and unsettled weather through next week. For today we can expect snow above 4000 ft. with accumulations of 8-12 inches at 6-9000 ft. possible by Sunday morning. Temperatures will continue in the mid 20's at mid elevations (7-10,000 ft.) and in the upper 20's to 30F at lower elevations. Winds below tree line will be 20-30 mph from the SSE with gusts to 45 mph and moving to the SSW tonight. Above tree line, winds will be 50 mph with gusts to 65 mph from the SSW. Snow Pack: People were able to enjoy 12-15 inches of light powder on a crunchy crust yesterday below tree line. The top few inches became heavier later in the day with increasing temperatures and wind effects. During stability tests yesterday at 7400 ft. on a NW aspect we found easy failures at the base of the new snow (Rutschblock score R3, Q1-2 shear, 1 ft. down) with failures on a facet layer in the older snow with moderate force (R4, Q1-2 shear, 2 ft. down). We observed heavy wind loading to N and NW aspects and saw shooting cracks and easy small slab avalanches on safe test slopes. With wetter snow through the night and some more today, this creates an upside down snow pack which creates instability. The best conditions today will be below tree line on slopes not affected by the wind and less than 30 degrees. Be observant today for any of the 5 red flags of avalanche danger (see below), choosing lower angle slopes (less than 30 degrees) and avoiding wind loaded aspects (W/N/E). A shooting crack in the snow created by a skier. Results of a stability test in the snow pack showing 2 failures, 1/25/08, Mt. Shasta. A shooting crack on 1/25/08 (left) at 7200 ft., WNW aspect, Mt. Shasta. The Rutschblock stability test (right) gave 2 failures. One occurred around 12 inches below the surface at the bottom of the new snow and almost all of it slid off the block (R3 - knee bend). The second failure occurred 2 ft. below the surface on a facet layer and slid cleanly and evenly 8 inches (R4 - first jump). <> Some important thoughts: This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires at midnight tonight. As always, use safe travel practices: travel with a partner, travel one at a time in suspect areas, go from one island of safety to another, choose safe routes, wear a transceiver, carry a shovel and probe, and know how to use your gear!