Aspen ===== LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, crusts, low pressure, sugar snow, wind drifted, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 11/22/2007 1:24:01 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Happy Thanksgiving! Clouds are beginning to stream across the western part of the state with the approaching storm. A low pressure system continues to dig southward across the Great Basin this afternoon. This system will move into the Four Corners region tonight, bringing snow to the San Juans by Friday morning. Discrepencies exist between weather models as to timing and duration of this storm. However, all models show the best moisture and lift, thus the heaviest snowfall, will occur near sunrise on Friday. The storm favors the Southern San Juan and Sangre de Cristos and may bring upwards of a foot of snow to favored locations before moving out. The main storm energy stays to the south, though moisture will spread north and east during the day Friday, yielding a chance of snow showers in the Central and Northern Mountains. The low tracks southeast Friday night leaving dry and cool conditions for the state through the weekend. Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 15-20 0-5 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 0-10 5-15 Wind Direction SSW WNW NNE Sky Cover Increasing Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Snow(in) 0 0-2 0-2 Snowpack Discussion The Aspen Zone picked up about 4-6" of new snow on Tuesday night. Moderate NW winds with this storm redistributed the new snow so you may find some wind loaded areas near and above treeline today. This snow fell on a variable older snowpack made up of crusts and weak sugar snow on higher elevation shady aspects, those facing NW, N, and NE. At lower elevations and on sunnier slopes, there is only a patchy older snowpack or bare ground under Tuesday night's snow. Human triggered avalanches will be possible today on higher elevation NW, N, and NE facing slopes where the weak older snowpack exists below the new wind drifted snow. In all other areas, a shallow snowpack with its buried rocks, stumps, and trees will be a bigger hazard than avalanches. Avalanche Danger Pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger exist on slopes facing NW, N, and NE above treeline. Moderate NW winds have redistributed new snow and have created some wind loaded areas at higher elevations. Human triggered avalanches will be possible. On all other aspects and elevations, the danger is LOW. If you are traveling in the backcountry this holiday weekend, we would love to know what you are seeing. Observations can be sent to [59]caic@qwest.net . Front Range =========== LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross loading, drifted, drifting, low pressure, slabs, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 11/22/2007 1:17:59 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Happy Thanksgiving! Clouds are beginning to stream across the western part of the state with the approaching storm. A low pressure system continues to dig southward across the Great Basin this afternoon. This system will move into the Four Corners region tonight, bringing snow to the San Juans by Friday morning. Discrepencies exist between weather models as to timing and duration of this storm. However, all models show the best moisture and lift, thus the heaviest snowfall, will occur near sunrise on Friday. The storm favors the Southern San Juan and Sangre de Cristos and may bring upwards of a foot of snow to favored locations before moving out. The main storm energy stays to the south, though moisture will spread north and east during the day Friday, yielding a chance of snow showers in the Central and Northern Mountains. The low tracks southeast Friday night leaving dry and cool conditions for the state through the weekend. Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 0-5 15-20 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction SW NW NE Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Snow(in) 0 0-2 0-2 Snowpack Discussion Roughly a half a foot of new snow fell in most areas of the Front Range Zone mid week. This added up to just enough new snow to freshen up the existing snow patches and hide shallowly buried obstacles. Strong, gusty winds have redistributed new snow, so expect to find some cross loading and drifting up to 2 feet deep. Observers near A-Basin saw evidence of small wind loaded soft slabs on east faces, though they did not run far. The old snow is mostly stable, meaning avalanche problems will be limited to the new snow.Watch for pockets of drifted snow on steep slopes. If a gully or slope looks nicely filled in, it probably is. Carefully evaluate the bond between the new and old snow. Beware of obstacles just below the surface! It is not too early for avalanches! In fact, our first skier triggered avalanche occured last week. Here is an [59]an early season avalanche reminder. It does not take much snow to make a bad day, and even a small early season avalanche can drag someone through rocks. Avalanche Danger There are pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger on steep north, northeast, and east aspects above treeline. Look for areas of drifted new snow. Otherwise the avalanche danger is LOW. Grand Mesa ========== LOW, avalanche danger, low pressure, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 11/22/2007 1:31:07 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Happy Thanksgiving! Clouds are beginning to stream across the western part of the state with the approaching storm. A low pressure system continues to dig southward across the Great Basin this afternoon. This system will move into the Four Corners region tonight, bringing snow to the San Juans by Friday morning. Discrepencies exist between weather models as to timing and duration of this storm. However, all models show the best moisture and lift, thus the heaviest snowfall, will occur near sunrise on Friday. The storm favors the Southern San Juan and Sangre de Cristos and may bring upwards of a foot of snow to favored locations before moving out. The main storm energy stays to the south, though moisture will spread north and east during the day Friday, yielding a chance of snow showers in the Central and Northern Mountains. The low tracks southeast Friday night leaving dry and cool conditions for the state through the weekend. Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 15-20 25-30 10-15 Wind Speed(mph) 0-10 0-10 5-15 Wind Direction S WNW NNE Sky Cover Increasing Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Snow(in) 0 0-2 0-1 Snowpack Discussion Grand Mesa picked up 6 inches of new snow from the mid-week storm. Areas of patchy snow could be found prior to the storm though there is still too little snow to pose much of an avalanche danger. Our forecaster Rob visited Grand Mesa on the 20th. He said the fishing looked good. That changed overnight with plummeting temperatures! Maybe ice skating will be in order soon. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Grand Mesa zone is LOW. If you have observations from this area, or any other, please send them to [59]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== LOW, avalanche danger, drifts, faceted, low pressure, slabs, starting zones, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 11/22/2007 1:40:39 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Happy Thanksgiving! Clouds are beginning to stream across the western part of the state with the approaching storm. A low pressure system continues to dig southward across the Great Basin this afternoon. This system will move into the Four Corners region tonight, bringing snow to the San Juans by Friday morning. Discrepencies exist between weather models as to timing and duration of this storm. However, all models show the best moisture and lift, thus the heaviest snowfall, will occur near sunrise on Friday. The storm favors the Southern San Juan and Sangre de Cristos and may bring upwards of a foot of snow to favored locations before moving out. The main storm energy stays to the south, though moisture will spread north and east during the day Friday, yielding a chance of snow showers in the Central and Northern Mountains. The low tracks southeast Friday night leaving dry and cool conditions for the state through the weekend. Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 12-17 18-23 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 5-15 Wind Direction SSW S NNE Sky Cover Increasing Overcast Decreasing Snow(in) 0-3 4-7 1-4 favors N. side Snowpack Discussion If we think positively and as a collective, "limited snow cover throughout the Northern San Juan zone" will be a thing of the past as of tomorrow. A majority of the snow we have now is on shaded slopes near and above treeline (mostly NE-N-NW aspects, but also some high, terrain-shaded E and W aspects as well). Most of this snow has been faceted through and is weak and cohesionless. However, some slopes also have firm and slick wind-affected surfaces that new snow will have difficulty bonding to. Recent winds have built some relatively deep, smooth drifts in upper starting zones and while they present little danger at this time, they could get enough new and wind-transported snow during and after this storm to form fresh slabs. Most sun-exposed aspects have little or no snow cover. If, as presently forecast, we get 5-14" with moderate southerly winds, NW-N-NE slopes near and above treeline will present the greatest danger during and directly after this storm. This coming storm will be a welcome change in the weather and has the ingredients of a decent snow-producer for our region - so get out there and do a snow dance! Snow will accumulate through the day Friday. Look for rising avalanche danger, particularly on northerly slopes, as the snow (hopefully) piles up. Have a Happy and Safe Thanksgiving! Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the North San Juan Zone is LOW. However, look for rising avalanche danger, particularly on northerly slopes, as the snow (hopefully) piles up on Friday. If you have observations from this area, or any other, please [59]Submit an Observation. San Juan South ============== LOW, avalanche danger, drifts, low pressure, stabilize, start zones, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 11/22/2007 1:51:22 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Happy Thanksgiving! Clouds are beginning to stream across the western part of the state with the approaching storm. A low pressure system continues to dig southward across the Great Basin this afternoon. This system will move into the Four Corners region tonight, bringing snow to the San Juans by Friday morning. Discrepencies exist between weather models as to timing and duration of this storm. However, all models show the best moisture and lift, thus the heaviest snowfall, will occur near sunrise on Friday. The storm favors the Southern San Juan and Sangre de Cristos and may bring upwards of a foot of snow to favored locations before moving out. The main storm energy stays to the south, though moisture will spread north and east during the day Friday, yielding a chance of snow showers in the Central and Northern Mountains. The low tracks southeast Friday night leaving dry and cool conditions for the state through the weekend. Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 15-20 20-25 10-15 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 5-15 Wind Direction SSW S N Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Overcast Decreasing Snow(in) 1-4 5-8 trace - 2 Snowpack Discussion There is limited snow cover throughout the Southern San Juan zone. With any luck, that it about to change with a good "San Juaner" on the way. Everybody do your best snow dance! Currently, sun-exposed aspects have little or no snow cover at all. Shaded areas above 11,000' have the most snow, though coverage remains spotty. Time and warm temperatures have helped to stabilize the small amounts of snow in avalanche start zones. The existing snow is hard ice or loose sugar and remains more of a future concern than a current one. Look for changing conditions on Friday as the snow (hopefully) piles up. Higher elevation NW-N-NE facing slopes will present the greatest danger during and directly after the storm. Have a Safe and Happy Thanksgiving! Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Southern San Juan zone is LOW. However, look for rising avalanche danger, particularly on northerly high elevation slopes as snow accumulates. Deep drifts may build rapidly so use caution on steep slopes. Sangre de Christo ================= LOW, avalanche danger, drifts, low pressure, stabilize, start zones, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 11/22/2007 1:56:25 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Happy Thanksgiving! Clouds are beginning to stream across the western part of the state with the approaching storm. A low pressure system continues to dig southward across the Great Basin this afternoon. This system will move into the Four Corners region tonight, bringing snow to the San Juans by Friday morning. Discrepencies exist between weather models as to timing and duration of this storm. However, all models show the best moisture and lift, thus the heaviest snowfall, will occur near sunrise on Friday. The storm favors the Southern San Juan and Sangre de Cristos and may bring upwards of a foot of snow to favored locations before moving out. The main storm energy stays to the south, though moisture will spread north and east during the day Friday, yielding a chance of snow showers in the Central and Northern Mountains. The low tracks southeast Friday night leaving dry and cool conditions for the state through the weekend. Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 17-22 7-12 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 10-20 Wind Direction SW S NE Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Overcast Decreasing Snow(in) 0-2 3-6 0-3 Snowpack Discussion There is limited snow cover throughout the Sangre de Cristo zone. Shaded areas above 11,000' have the most snow. The winds have built some smooth rounded drifts that are a couple of feet deep, but they present little danger at this time. Time and warm temperatures have helped to stabilize the small amounts of snow in avalanche start zones. Most sun-exposed aspects have little or no snow cover. The areas that have some snow cover today will present the greatest danger when more snow comes. Look for changing conditions on Friday as the snow (hopefully) piles up. Higher elevation NW-N-NE facing slopes will present the greatest danger during and after the storm. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Sangre de Cristo zone is LOW. Look for rising avalanche danger on Friday if the upper end of forecasted snow totals are reached. Sawatch ======= LOW, avalanche danger, drifted, drifts, low pressure, probe, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 11/22/2007 1:30:21 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Happy Thanksgiving! Clouds are beginning to stream across the western part of the state with the approaching storm. A low pressure system continues to dig southward across the Great Basin this afternoon. This system will move into the Four Corners region tonight, bringing snow to the San Juans by Friday morning. Discrepencies exist between weather models as to timing and duration of this storm. However, all models show the best moisture and lift, thus the heaviest snowfall, will occur near sunrise on Friday. The storm favors the Southern San Juan and Sangre de Cristos and may bring upwards of a foot of snow to favored locations before moving out. The main storm energy stays to the south, though moisture will spread north and east during the day Friday, yielding a chance of snow showers in the Central and Northern Mountains. The low tracks southeast Friday night leaving dry and cool conditions for the state through the weekend. Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 15-20 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 10-20 Wind Direction S SSE NNE Sky Cover Increasing Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Snow(in) 0 trace-3 0-2 Snowpack Discussion Gobble Gobble! The new snow we received on Tuesday evening into Wednesday has changed the view of the landscape. It looks more like winter! However, the new snow has been redistributed to aspects facing north through east. Terrain depressions and gullies may be tender from the added weight of the loaded snow. Some areas could have newly formed drifts up to 2 feet deep. Remember, a thin snowpack does not mean NO avalanches. Assessing the bond between the old and new snow is a continual process. You can use either a ski or probe pole to feel for these drifted areas. Beware of obstacles just below the surface! It is not too early for avalanches! In fact, our first skier triggered avalanche occured last week. Here is an [59]an early season avalanche reminder. It does not take much snow to make a bad day, and even a small early season avalanche can drag someone through rocks. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Sawatch zone is LOW. Steamboat ========= LOW, avalanche danger, density, drifts, low pressure, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 11/22/2007 1:05:16 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Happy Thanksgiving! Clouds are beginning to stream across the western part of the state with the approaching storm. A low pressure system continues to dig southward across the Great Basin this afternoon. This system will move into the Four Corners region tonight, bringing snow to the San Juans by Friday morning. Discrepencies exist between weather models as to timing and duration of this storm. However, all models show the best moisture and lift, thus the heaviest snowfall, will occur near sunrise on Friday. The storm favors the Southern San Juan and Sangre de Cristos and may bring upwards of a foot of snow to favored locations before moving out. The main storm energy stays to the south, though moisture will spread north and east during the day Friday, yielding a chance of snow showers in the Central and Northern Mountains. The low tracks southeast Friday night leaving dry and cool conditions for the state through the weekend. Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 0-5 22-27 0-5 Wind Speed(mph) 0-10 5-15 10-20 Wind Direction SW NE NNE Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion An observer in the Buffalo Pass area reported 10 inches of "low density fluff" on Wednesday afternoon. Prior to the storm, only patchy areas of older snow persisted in shaded areas above 11,000'. Although new snow fell on limited snow cover, expect fresh shallow drifts on top of the old snow. You might be able to find some isolated spots to trigger the new drifts, though you would have to hunt for them on steep slopes. Even a small slide could drag you through shallowly burried obstacles such as rocks or downed logs. It is not too early for avalanches! Click the following link for our season's first reported skier-triggered avalanche. Here is an [59]an early season avalanche reminder. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Steamboat zone is LOW. Expect isolated areas of unstable snow where the new snow drifts more than six inches. Vail ==== LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, drifted, drifts, low pressure, probe, slabs, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 11/22/2007 1:21:21 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Happy Thanksgiving! Clouds are beginning to stream across the western part of the state with the approaching storm. A low pressure system continues to dig southward across the Great Basin this afternoon. This system will move into the Four Corners region tonight, bringing snow to the San Juans by Friday morning. Discrepencies exist between weather models as to timing and duration of this storm. However, all models show the best moisture and lift, thus the heaviest snowfall, will occur near sunrise on Friday. The storm favors the Southern San Juan and Sangre de Cristos and may bring upwards of a foot of snow to favored locations before moving out. The main storm energy stays to the south, though moisture will spread north and east during the day Friday, yielding a chance of snow showers in the Central and Northern Mountains. The low tracks southeast Friday night leaving dry and cool conditions for the state through the weekend. Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 0-5 17-22 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction SW WNW NE Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Snow(in) 0 0-2 0-2 Snowpack Discussion Gobble Gobble! The new snow we received on Tuesday evening into Wednesday has mostly change the view of the landscape. However, the new snow has been redistributed to new aspects facing North through East. Terrain depressions and gullies may be tender from the added weight of the loaded snow. Some areas could have newly formed drifts up to 2 feet deep. Remember, low snow does not mean NO avalanches. In fact, observers near A-Basin saw evidence of small wind loaded soft slabs on east faces, though they did not run far. Assessing the bond between the old and new snow is a continual process. You can use either a ski or probe pole to feel for these drifted areas. Beware of obstacles just below the surface! It is not too early for avalanches! In fact, our first skier triggered avalanche occured last week. Here is an [59]an early season avalanche reminder. It does not take much snow to make a bad day, and even a small early season avalanche can drag someone through rocks. Avalanche Danger There are pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger on steep north, northeast and east aspects above treeline. Look for areas of drifted new snow. All other aspects and elevations, the avalanche danger is LOW.