Aspen ===== LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, crusts, faceted, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, low pressure, precipitation , wind drifted, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 11/23/2007 2:36:14 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis The low pressure center over the Four Corners earlier this morning has started squirting out to the north east. Circulation around the low is starting to fill some clouds into the north side of the San Juans and radar is showing some echoes of precipitation as we move into the afternoon hours. Skies are clearing over AZ and NM this afternoon, so the San Juans will be seeing decreasing preciptation intensity as we move into Friday night. There have been some reports of the odd flake here and there across the northern and central portions of the state, but outside of Monarch Pass, no accumulations. As the current storm exits to the north east it will be followed by a ridge of high pressure on Saturday. The high pressure looks to linger into Sunday, maybe Monday morning, before the next series of storms develop for the last week of November. Weather Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 22-27 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction N NE N Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-1 0 0 Snowpack Discussion The Aspen Zone currently has a shallow and variable early season snowpack. There is however enough snow to be thinking about avalanches. Higher elevation slopes facing northeast, north, and northwest have the deepest snowpack at this time. On these aspects you will find new snow and some wind drifted snow from Tuesday's storm at the surface with older snow from October below. The lower layers in the snowpack are made up of weak faceted snow and crusts in some locations. If you are traveling on these higher elevation shady aspects today, be sure and check the bond between these layers and keep an eye out for areas recently wind drifted snow. At lower elevations and on sunnier slopes, there is only a patchy older snowpack or bare ground under our most recent storm snow. This shallow snowpack with its buried rocks, stumps, and trees will be a bigger hazard than avalanches. Avalanche Danger Pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger exist on slopes facing Northeast, North, and Northwest above treeline. Moderate NW winds during the last storm have redistributed the new snow and created some wind loaded areas at higher elevations. Human triggered avalanches will be possible. On all other aspects and elevations, the danger is LOW. If you are traveling in the backcountry this holiday weekend, we would love to know what you are seeing. Observations for the Aspen Zone, or any other area, can be sent to [59]caic@qwest.net . Front Range =========== LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross loading, drifted, drifting, high pressure, low pressure, precipitation , slab, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 11/23/2007 2:27:27 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis The low pressure center over the Four Corners earlier this morning has started squirting out to the north east. Circulation around the low is starting to fill some clouds into the north side of the San Juans and radar is showing some echoes of precipitation as we move into the afternoon hours. Skies are clearing over AZ and NM this afternoon, so the San Juans will be seeing decreasing preciptation intensity as we move into Friday night. There have been some reports of the odd flake here and there across the northern and central portions of the state, but outside of Monarch Pass, no accumulations. As the current storm exits to the north east it will be followed by a ridge of high pressure on Saturday. The high pressure looks to linger into Sunday, maybe Monday morning, before the next series of storms develop for the last week of November. Weather Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Temperature(°F) 2-7 20-25 6-11 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction NNE NNE->NNW NW Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-2 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Roughly a half a foot of new snow fell in most areas of the Front Range Zone mid week. This added up to just enough new snow to freshen up the existing snow patches and hide shallowly buried obstacles. Strong, gusty winds have redistributed new snow, so expect to find some cross loading and drifting up to 2 feet deep. Only limited and small activity has been reported from the Front Range zone since the last storm cycle The old snow is mostly stable, meaning avalanche problems will be limited to the new snow. Watch for pockets of drifted snow on steep slopes. The little bit of new snow expected by tonight will mostly load onto the westerly aspects where little in the way of old snow exists. If the terrain looks well covered in snow, it probably has enough snow to hide a slab. Carefully evaluate the bond between the new and old snow. Beware of obstacles just below the surface! It is not too early for avalanches! In fact, our first skier triggered avalanche occured November 14th. Here is an [59]an early season avalanche reminder. It does not take much snow to make a bad day, and even a small early season avalanche can drag someone through rocks. Avalanche Danger There are pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger on steep north, northeast, and east aspects above treeline. Otherwise the avalanche danger is LOW. Grand Mesa ========== LOW, avalanche danger, high pressure, low pressure, precipitation , Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 11/23/2007 2:39:40 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis The low pressure center over the Four Corners earlier this morning has started squirting out to the north east. Circulation around the low is starting to fill some clouds into the north side of the San Juans and radar is showing some echoes of precipitation as we move into the afternoon hours. Skies are clearing over AZ and NM this afternoon, so the San Juans will be seeing decreasing preciptation intensity as we move into Friday night. There have been some reports of the odd flake here and there across the northern and central portions of the state, but outside of Monarch Pass, no accumulations. As the current storm exits to the north east it will be followed by a ridge of high pressure on Saturday. The high pressure looks to linger into Sunday, maybe Monday morning, before the next series of storms develop for the last week of November. Weather Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 24-29 7-12 Wind Speed(mph) 0-10 0-10 0-10 Wind Direction WNW N NNE Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Grand Mesa picked up 6 inches of new snow from the mid-week storm. Areas of patchy snow could be found prior to the storm though there is still too little snow to pose much of an avalanche danger. Our forecaster Rob visited Grand Mesa on November 20th. He said the fishing looked good. Plummeting temperatures have likely changed that! Maybe ice skating will be in order soon. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Grand Mesa zone is LOW. If you have observations from this area, or any other, please send them to [59]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, drifts, faceted, high pressure, low pressure, precipitation , slabs, starting zones, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 11/23/2007 3:07:39 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis The low pressure center over the Four Corners earlier this morning has started squirting out to the north east. Circulation around the low is starting to fill some clouds into the north side of the San Juans and radar is showing some echoes of precipitation as we move into the afternoon hours. Skies are clearing over AZ and NM this afternoon, so the San Juans will be seeing decreasing preciptation intensity as we move into Friday night. There have been some reports of the odd flake here and there across the northern and central portions of the state, but outside of Monarch Pass, no accumulations. As the current storm exits to the north east it will be followed by a ridge of high pressure on Saturday. The high pressure looks to linger into Sunday, maybe Monday morning, before the next series of storms develop for the last week of November. Weather Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Temperature(°F) 4-9 23-28 7-12 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 G 20s 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction N N N Sky Cover Overcast Decreasing Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 2-4 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Reports Friday added a few more inches to the old overall snowpack across the northern San Juan. A majority of the snow we have is on shaded slopes near and above treeline (mostly NE-N-NW aspects, but also some high, terrain-shaded E and W aspects as well). Most of this snow has been faceted through and is weak and cohesionless. However, some slopes also have firm and slick wind-affected surfaces that new snow will have difficulty bonding to. Recent winds have built some relatively deep, smooth drifts in upper starting zones and while they present little danger at this time, they could get enough new and wind-transported snow during and after this storm to form fresh slabs. Most sun-exposed aspects have little or no snow cover. With 5-14" of new snow and with moderate southerly winds, NW-N-NE slopes near and above treeline will present the greatest danger during and directly after this storm. Weather models indicate a wind shift to the north Friday night into Saturday, so backcountry travelers will need to use good skills to see where the new snow has deposited. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the North San Juan Zone is LOW over all. Still, with the new snow from Friday, we could see some pockets of MODERATE develop near and above treeline on the NW-N-NE aspects where old snow was on the ground before the current snow cycle. If you have observations from this area, or any other, please [59]Submit an Observation. San Juan South ============== LOW, avalanche danger, high pressure, low pressure, precipitation , Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 11/23/2007 3:00:15 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis The low pressure center over the Four Corners earlier this morning has started squirting out to the north east. Circulation around the low is starting to fill some clouds into the north side of the San Juans and radar is showing some echoes of precipitation as we move into the afternoon hours. Skies are clearing over AZ and NM this afternoon, so the San Juans will be seeing decreasing preciptation intensity as we move into Friday night. There have been some reports of the odd flake here and there across the northern and central portions of the state, but outside of Monarch Pass, no accumulations. As the current storm exits to the north east it will be followed by a ridge of high pressure on Saturday. The high pressure looks to linger into Sunday, maybe Monday morning, before the next series of storms develop for the last week of November. Weather Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Temperature(°F) 510 25-30 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction SW->NE NE NE Sky Cover Decreasing Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 3-5 0-2 0 Snowpack Discussion There was limited snow cover throughout the Southern San Juan zone before Fridays storm. New snow Friday fell mainly on bare ground. Consequently avalanche danger has not gone up much, if at all yet. We are starting to build that early season base now. Getting into the backcountry will still be a little tricky, with rocks and other hidden treasures lurking just underneath the new snow probably being the greatest danger. We are dropping the danger rating back to LOW overall. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Southern San Juan zone is LOW. Sangre de Christo ================= LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, drifts, high pressure, low pressure, precipitation , stabilize, start zones, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 11/23/2007 2:48:08 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis The low pressure center over the Four Corners earlier this morning has started squirting out to the north east. Circulation around the low is starting to fill some clouds into the north side of the San Juans and radar is showing some echoes of precipitation as we move into the afternoon hours. Skies are clearing over AZ and NM this afternoon, so the San Juans will be seeing decreasing preciptation intensity as we move into Friday night. There have been some reports of the odd flake here and there across the northern and central portions of the state, but outside of Monarch Pass, no accumulations. As the current storm exits to the north east it will be followed by a ridge of high pressure on Saturday. The high pressure looks to linger into Sunday, maybe Monday morning, before the next series of storms develop for the last week of November. Weather Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 19-24 8-13 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 G 20s 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction NNE NE ENE Sky Cover Overcast Decreasing Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 3-5 0 0 Snowpack Discussion For the sason so far, there has been limited snow cover throughout the Sangre de Cristo zone. Shaded areas above 11,000' have the most snow. The winds have built some smooth rounded drifts that are a couple of feet deep, but they present little danger at this time. Time and warm temperatures have helped to stabilize the small amounts of snow in avalanche start zones. Most sun-exposed aspects have little or no snow cover. The areas that have some snow cover now will present the greatest danger as new snow Friday and Friday night add up. Wind flow will be easterly which will mean a little more snow on the east side of the range, but light loading could be found on the western aspects. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Sangre de Cristo zone is LOW. Look for rising avalanche danger over the next 24 hours to MODERATE if the upper end of forecasted snow totals are reached. Sawatch ======= LOW, avalanche danger, high pressure, low pressure, precipitation , slab, slabs, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 11/23/2007 2:45:44 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis The low pressure center over the Four Corners earlier this morning has started squirting out to the north east. Circulation around the low is starting to fill some clouds into the north side of the San Juans and radar is showing some echoes of precipitation as we move into the afternoon hours. Skies are clearing over AZ and NM this afternoon, so the San Juans will be seeing decreasing preciptation intensity as we move into Friday night. There have been some reports of the odd flake here and there across the northern and central portions of the state, but outside of Monarch Pass, no accumulations. As the current storm exits to the north east it will be followed by a ridge of high pressure on Saturday. The high pressure looks to linger into Sunday, maybe Monday morning, before the next series of storms develop for the last week of November. Weather Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 18-23 8-13 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20G 30s 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction E NE NNE Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Mostly Clear Snow(in) 2-4 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Unfortunately, what snow we received earlier in the week is shrinking, showing bare ground on sunny aspects. Some of the new snow has been transported to fill in gullies on North through East aspects above tree line. Tender slabs can be found in these isolated pockets which for the most part are the areas one would look for to ride. The Monarch Pass area may pick up enough new snow by Saturday morning to cover the ground once again. If you choose to ride, be aware of the snow stability in these areas, approaching with caution. Observers have confirmed there are soft slab conditions on East aspects above treeline. Our most likely injury with our current snowpack would be bodily or to our equipment. It is not too early for avalanches! In fact, our first skier triggered avalanche occured November 14. Here is an [59]an early season avalanche reminder. It does not take much snow to make a bad day, and even a small early season avalanche can drag someone through rocks. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is currently rated as LOW. Be cautious near all wind loaded aspects above tree line facing North through East as well as steep gullies. Steamboat ========= LOW, avalanche danger, drifts, high pressure, low pressure, precipitation , Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 11/23/2007 2:40:22 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis The low pressure center over the Four Corners earlier this morning has started squirting out to the north east. Circulation around the low is starting to fill some clouds into the north side of the San Juans and radar is showing some echoes of precipitation as we move into the afternoon hours. Skies are clearing over AZ and NM this afternoon, so the San Juans will be seeing decreasing preciptation intensity as we move into Friday night. There have been some reports of the odd flake here and there across the northern and central portions of the state, but outside of Monarch Pass, no accumulations. As the current storm exits to the north east it will be followed by a ridge of high pressure on Saturday. The high pressure looks to linger into Sunday, maybe Monday morning, before the next series of storms develop for the last week of November. Weather Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 24-29 6-11 Wind Speed(mph) 3-13 0-10 1-11 Wind Direction NNE NW WNW Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-1 0 0 Snowpack Discussion No new reports of snowfall since Wednesday. The current storm system is not favorable for the Steamboat Zone so avalanche danger will remain at LOW Prior to the storm, only patchy areas of older snow persisted in shaded areas above 11,000'. Although new snow fell on limited snow cover, expect fresh shallow drifts on top of the old snow. You might be able to find some isolated spots to trigger the new drifts, though you would have to hunt for them on steep slopes. Even a small slide could drag you through shallowly burried obstacles such as rocks or downed logs. It is not too early for avalanches! Click the following link for our season's first reported skier-triggered avalanche. Here is an [59]an early season avalanche reminder. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Steamboat zone is LOW. Expect isolated areas of unstable snow where the new snow drifts more than six inches. Vail ==== LOW, avalanche danger, high pressure, low pressure, precipitation , settled, slab, slabs, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 11/23/2007 2:34:36 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis The low pressure center over the Four Corners earlier this morning has started squirting out to the north east. Circulation around the low is starting to fill some clouds into the north side of the San Juans and radar is showing some echoes of precipitation as we move into the afternoon hours. Skies are clearing over AZ and NM this afternoon, so the San Juans will be seeing decreasing preciptation intensity as we move into Friday night. There have been some reports of the odd flake here and there across the northern and central portions of the state, but outside of Monarch Pass, no accumulations. As the current storm exits to the north east it will be followed by a ridge of high pressure on Saturday. The high pressure looks to linger into Sunday, maybe Monday morning, before the next series of storms develop for the last week of November. Weather Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Temperature(°F) 3-8 23-28 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 G 20s 5-15 G 20s 5-15 Wind Direction NE N NW Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-2 0 0 Snowpack Discussion The 6-7 inches of new snow from mid-week has settled in and looks to have bonded to what old snow surfaces we had in the Summit/Vail zone. Much of the new snow has been transported to fill in gullies on North through East aspects above tree line. Tender slabs could be found in these isolated pockets. For the most part these are the areas one would look for to ride. If you choose to ride, be prepared to test the snow stability on the slope in question before jumping in with a full commitment. Observers have confirmed there are soft slab conditions on East aspects above treeline. The most likely injuries if caught in a slide under our current conditions would be from rocks and other terrain features, not to mention what happens to the new toys we're on. It is not too early for avalanches! In fact, our first skier triggered avalanche occured November 14. Here is an [59]an early season avalanche reminder. It does not take much snow to make a bad day, and even a small early season avalanche can drag someone through rocks. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is currently rated as LOW. Be cautious near all wind loaded aspects above tree line facing North through East as well as steep wind loaded gullies.