Aspen ===== Current Keywords: LOW, crusts, faceted, high pressure, loose snow avalanches, point release, sluff, wind loading, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 11/24/2007 1:10:55 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis High pressure across the west is helping temperatures rebound a little bit today. It certainly feels more winter like than the first part of November did. With the clear skies again Saturday night, expect valley floor temperatures to plummet, with warmer temeperatures found higher up on the mountain. This high pressure system remains through the weekend, with a more notable warm-up for Sunday. Winds at the higher elevations remain moderate, especially along the Continental Divide and the Northern San Juan zone. Low pressure over New Mexico and the exiting storm just east of Colorado are contributing to these stronger winds. This high pressure will flatten on Monday morning allowing for a weak system to brush the north and central portions of the state, though little change is expected from this new system. The bigger change looks to be Tuesday and Tuesday night. We'll have more details as we head into the new week. Weather Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Temperature(°F) 2-7 22-27 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction N N W Sky Cover Clear Partly Cloudy Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Yesterday's light snow brought us ½ to 1 inch of accumulation during the day around the Aspen Zone, not enough to effect our avalanche conditions today. The snowpack in our area can best be described as shallow and highly variable from one slope to the next. There is however enough snow to be thinking about avalanches. Higher elevation slopes facing Northeast, North, and Northwest have the deepest snowpack at this time. On these aspects you will find the recent storm snow in the upper snowpack with older snow from October below. The lower layers in the snowpack are made up of either weak faceted snow or crusts depending on what aspect you are on. If you are traveling on these higher elevation shady aspects, be sure and check the bond between all these layers. At lower elevations and on sunnier slopes, there is only a patchy older snowpack or bare ground under our most recent storm snow. This shallow snowpack with its buried rocks, stumps, and trees will be a bigger hazard than avalanches. Avalanche Danger Avalanche danger in the Aspen Zone is rated an overall LOW today. Please remember that at a LOW rating it is still possible to see avalanche activity. Keep an eye out for some loose snow avalanches (point releases or sluff's) if you are traveling on steeper slopes facing Northeast, North, or Northwest. Also look out for any areas above treeline that have seen recent wind loading. If you are traveling in the backcountry this holiday weekend, we would love to know what you are seeing. Observations for the Aspen Zone, or any other area, can be sent to [59]caic@qwest.net . Front Range =========== Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, drifted, high pressure, slab, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 11/24/2007 1:10:08 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis High pressure across the west is helping temperatures rebound a little bit today. It certainly feels more winter like than the first part of November did. With the clear skies again Saturday night, expect valley floor temperatures to plummet, with warmer temeperatures found higher up on the mountain. This high pressure system remains through the weekend, with a more notable warm-up for Sunday. Winds at the higher elevations remain moderate, especially along the Continental Divide and the Northern San Juan zone. Low pressure over New Mexico and the exiting storm just east of Colorado are contributing to these stronger winds. This high pressure will flatten on Monday morning allowing for a weak system to brush the north and central portions of the state, though little change is expected from this new system. The bigger change looks to be Tuesday and Tuesday night. We'll have more details as we head into the new week. Weather Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Temperature(°F) 3-8 27-32 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 G 30 10-20 G 30s 10-20 G 30s Wind Direction WNW NW W Sky Cover Clear Partly Cloudy Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Roughly a half a foot of new snow fell in most areas of the Front Range Zone mid week. This added up to just enough new snow to freshen up the existing snow patches and hide shallowly buried obstacles. A few snow plumes have been reported off the high terrain of the Front Range Saturday, so shallow avalanche possibilities remain. No new slide activity has been reported for several days now. Good rideable terrain is still a little tough to find in quantity, but we are slowly building a foundation. The old snow is mostly stable, meaning avalanche problems will be limited to the new snow. Watch for pockets of drifted snow on steep slopes. If the terrain looks well covered in snow, it probably has enough snow to hide a slab. Carefully evaluate the bond between the new and old snow. Look at the consequences of any ride. Rocks hurt. It is not too early for avalanches! In fact, our first skier triggered avalanche occured November 14th. Here is an [59]an early season avalanche reminder. It does not take much snow to make a bad day, and even a small early season avalanche can drag someone through rocks. Avalanche Danger There are pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger on steep north, northeast, and east aspects above treeline. Otherwise the avalanche danger is LOW. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: LOW, avalanche danger, high pressure, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 11/24/2007 1:12:20 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis High pressure across the west is helping temperatures rebound a little bit today. It certainly feels more winter like than the first part of November did. With the clear skies again Saturday night, expect valley floor temperatures to plummet, with warmer temeperatures found higher up on the mountain. This high pressure system remains through the weekend, with a more notable warm-up for Sunday. Winds at the higher elevations remain moderate, especially along the Continental Divide and the Northern San Juan zone. Low pressure over New Mexico and the exiting storm just east of Colorado are contributing to these stronger winds. This high pressure will flatten on Monday morning allowing for a weak system to brush the north and central portions of the state, though little change is expected from this new system. The bigger change looks to be Tuesday and Tuesday night. We'll have more details as we head into the new week. Weather Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Temperature(°F) 6-11 28-33 17-22 Wind Speed(mph) 0-10 0-10 0-10 Wind Direction N NNW W Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Grand Mesa picked up 6 inches of new snow from the past mid-week storm. Areas of patchy snow could be found prior to the storm though there is still too little snow to pose much of an avalanche danger. Our forecaster Rob visited Grand Mesa on November 20th. He said the fishing looked good. Plummeting temperatures have likely iced over the lakes, so the little fishies will have a bit of a respite from barbed hooks for a while Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Grand Mesa zone is LOW. If you have observations from this area, or any other, please send them to [59]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, faceted, high pressure, lee , point release, slab, slabs, wind loading, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 11/24/2007 1:16:00 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis High pressure across the west is helping temperatures rebound a little bit today. It certainly feels more winter like than the first part of November did. With the clear skies again Saturday night, expect valley floor temperatures to plummet, with warmer temeperatures found higher up on the mountain. This high pressure system remains through the weekend, with a more notable warm-up for Sunday. Winds at the higher elevations remain moderate, especially along the Continental Divide and the Northern San Juan zone. Low pressure over New Mexico and the exiting storm just east of Colorado are contributing to these stronger winds. This high pressure will flatten on Monday morning allowing for a weak system to brush the north and central portions of the state, though little change is expected from this new system. The bigger change looks to be Tuesday and Tuesday night. We'll have more details as we head into the new week. Weather Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Temperature(°F) 3-8 24-29 10-15 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G 30s 12-22 G 30s 10-20 G 30 Wind Direction N N W Sky Cover Clear Partly Cloudy Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Reports of snow totals from yesterday's storm range from roughly 4"-11" for the Northern San Juan Zone. Most of the snow during this storm fell while winds, which were blowing strong enough to transport new snow, were on a S-SW track. As a result, northerly slopes in the high country got some decent loading. Although we haven't had new snow in quite some time, some of the upper starting zones on northerly slopes had up to a meter of snow in them. Fresh slabs on NW-N-NE slopes near and above treeline now sit on either faceted, cohesionless snow or fairly slick wind-affected surface snow with which the new slab may struggle to bond. Late Friday afternoon, ridgetop winds swapped toward the north and have remained there overnight, and have been rather brisk off the high ridgetops. This change in direction redistributed some of the new snow back onto southerly aspects. However, it also helped to stiffen the freshly formed slabs on the northerly aspects, making them more prone to propagate if triggered.Observers have called in reporting snow plumes, so fresh wind loading is a certainty on the lee slopes and cross loaded terrain. As the sun warms things up Sunday, we can expect to see loose point releases, particularly out of steep, sunny aspects with rocky outcroppings. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Northern San Juan Zone is generally LOW, but on NW-N-NE aspects that are 35 degrees or steeper near and above treeline the danger is MODERATE. Backcountry enthusiasts will undoubtedly be eager to get out in the new snow this weekend. If you are one of them, be careful of tender new slabs on high northerly slopes, as well as thinly covered trees, rocks and other "obstacles" on other slopes. If you have observations from this area, or any other, please [59]Submit an Observation. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: LOW, avalanche danger, faceted, high pressure, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 11/24/2007 1:16:48 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis High pressure across the west is helping temperatures rebound a little bit today. It certainly feels more winter like than the first part of November did. With the clear skies again Saturday night, expect valley floor temperatures to plummet, with warmer temeperatures found higher up on the mountain. This high pressure system remains through the weekend, with a more notable warm-up for Sunday. Winds at the higher elevations remain moderate, especially along the Continental Divide and the Northern San Juan zone. Low pressure over New Mexico and the exiting storm just east of Colorado are contributing to these stronger winds. This high pressure will flatten on Monday morning allowing for a weak system to brush the north and central portions of the state, though little change is expected from this new system. The bigger change looks to be Tuesday and Tuesday night. We'll have more details as we head into the new week. Weather Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Temperature(°F) 2-7 32-37 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 10-20 5-15 Wind Direction NW SW SW Sky Cover Clear Partly Cloudy Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion There was limited snow cover throughout the Southern San Juan zone before Fridays storm. New snow Friday fell mainly on bare ground. Consequently avalanche danger has not gone up much, if at all yet. We are starting to build that early season base now. If we return to the typical Colorado winter, much of this new snow will alter from the nice stellar snow flake to the weaker faceted sugar like snow. This bears watching as it could be a problem as we work further into winter. Getting into the backcountry will still be a little tricky, with rocks and other hidden treasures lurking just underneath the new snow. Our valient Wolf Creek Pass observer has vowed to sacrifice his skis to get out a little later and look at how things are stacking up. The danger rating has backed to LOW overall. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Southern San Juan zone is LOW. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: LOW, avalanche danger, crust, drifts, high pressure, stabilize, start zones, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 11/24/2007 1:18:15 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis High pressure across the west is helping temperatures rebound a little bit today. It certainly feels more winter like than the first part of November did. With the clear skies again Saturday night, expect valley floor temperatures to plummet, with warmer temeperatures found higher up on the mountain. This high pressure system remains through the weekend, with a more notable warm-up for Sunday. Winds at the higher elevations remain moderate, especially along the Continental Divide and the Northern San Juan zone. Low pressure over New Mexico and the exiting storm just east of Colorado are contributing to these stronger winds. This high pressure will flatten on Monday morning allowing for a weak system to brush the north and central portions of the state, though little change is expected from this new system. The bigger change looks to be Tuesday and Tuesday night. We'll have more details as we head into the new week. Weather Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Temperature(°F) 2-7 27-32 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 G 30s 10-20 G 30s Wind Direction NW NW NW Sky Cover Clear Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion 3-4" of new snow was reported from the southern end of the Sangres Saturday morning. For the season so far, there has been limited snow cover throughout the Sangre de Cristo zone. Shaded areas above 11,000' have the most snow. The winds have built some smooth rounded drifts that are a couple of feet deep, but they present little danger at this time. Time and warm temperatures have helped to stabilize the small amounts of snow in avalanche start zones. Most sun-exposed aspects have little or no snow cover, but where this is snow, a hard melt freeze crust has developed. The areas that have some snow cover now will present the greatest danger as the new snow from Friday and Friday night see a little wind re-distribution. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Sangre de Cristo zone is LOW. Remember, LOW does not mean avalanches are impossible Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: LOW, avalanche danger, cross loaded, high pressure, slab, slabs, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 11/24/2007 1:20:07 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis High pressure across the west is helping temperatures rebound a little bit today. It certainly feels more winter like than the first part of November did. With the clear skies again Saturday night, expect valley floor temperatures to plummet, with warmer temeperatures found higher up on the mountain. This high pressure system remains through the weekend, with a more notable warm-up for Sunday. Winds at the higher elevations remain moderate, especially along the Continental Divide and the Northern San Juan zone. Low pressure over New Mexico and the exiting storm just east of Colorado are contributing to these stronger winds. This high pressure will flatten on Monday morning allowing for a weak system to brush the north and central portions of the state, though little change is expected from this new system. The bigger change looks to be Tuesday and Tuesday night. We'll have more details as we head into the new week. Weather Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Temperature(°F) 2-7 19-24 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 G 30 10-20 G 30s 10-20 G 30 Wind Direction N N W Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Two or more new inches fell throughout the zone Friday and Friday night. Expect the wind to move some of this new snow to the lee aspects and cross loaded slopes and gullies, as well as some to melt away on sunny aspects. New snow has been transported to fill in gullies on North through East aspects above tree line. Tender slabs can be found in these isolated pockets which for the most part are the areas one would look for to ride. If you choose to ride, be aware of the snow stability in these areas, approaching with caution. Observers have confirmed there are soft slab conditions on East aspects above treeline. Our most likely injury with our current snowpack would be bodily or to our equipment. It is not too early for avalanches! In fact, our first skier triggered avalanche occured November 14. Here is an [59]an early season avalanche reminder. It does not take much snow to make a bad day, and even a small early season avalanche can drag someone through rocks. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is currently rated as LOW. Be cautious near all wind loaded aspects above tree line facing North through East as well as steep gullies. Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: LOW, avalanche danger, drifts, high pressure, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 11/24/2007 1:05:24 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis High pressure across the west is helping temperatures rebound a little bit today. It certainly feels more winter like than the first part of November did. With the clear skies again Saturday night, expect valley floor temperatures to plummet, with warmer temeperatures found higher up on the mountain. This high pressure system remains through the weekend, with a more notable warm-up for Sunday. Winds at the higher elevations remain moderate, especially along the Continental Divide and the Northern San Juan zone. Low pressure over New Mexico and the exiting storm just east of Colorado are contributing to these stronger winds. This high pressure will flatten on Monday morning allowing for a weak system to brush the north and central portions of the state, though little change is expected from this new system. The bigger change looks to be Tuesday and Tuesday night. We'll have more details as we head into the new week. Weather Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 25-30 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 10-20 5-15 Wind Direction WNW NW W Sky Cover Clear Partly Cloudy Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion No new reports of snowfall reported since Wednesday. Prior to the storm, only patchy areas of older snow persisted in shaded areas above 11,000'. Although new snow from mid-week fell on limited snow cover, the trained eye can probably find fresh shallow drifts on top of the old snow. You might be able to find some isolated spots to trigger the new drifts, though you would have to hunt for them on steep slopes. It is not too early for avalanches! Click the following link for our season's first reported skier-triggered avalanche. Here is an [59]an early season avalanche reminder. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Steamboat zone is LOW. Vail ==== Current Keywords: LOW, avalanche danger, high pressure, settled, slab, slabs, surface hoar, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 11/24/2007 1:07:12 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis High pressure across the west is helping temperatures rebound a little bit today. It certainly feels more winter like than the first part of November did. With the clear skies again Saturday night, expect valley floor temperatures to plummet, with warmer temeperatures found higher up on the mountain. This high pressure system remains through the weekend, with a more notable warm-up for Sunday. Winds at the higher elevations remain moderate, especially along the Continental Divide and the Northern San Juan zone. Low pressure over New Mexico and the exiting storm just east of Colorado are contributing to these stronger winds. This high pressure will flatten on Monday morning allowing for a weak system to brush the north and central portions of the state, though little change is expected from this new system. The bigger change looks to be Tuesday and Tuesday night. We'll have more details as we head into the new week. Weather Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Temperature(°F) 2-7 25-30 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction W NW W Sky Cover Clear Partly Cloudy Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion The new snow from mid-week has settled in and looks to have bonded to what old snow surfaces we had in the Summit/Vail zone. Much of the new snow has been transported to fill in gullies on North through East aspects above tree line. Tender slabs could be found in these isolated pockets. For the most part these are the areas one would look for to ride. If you choose to ride, be prepared to test the snow stability on the slope in question before jumping in with a full commitment. Observers have confirmed there are soft slab conditions on East aspects above treeline. The most likely injuries if caught in a slide under our current conditions would be from rocks and other terrain features, not to mention what happens to the new toys we're on. One last thing to look for is with the cold valley bottom temperatures and clear skies, expect to see some surface hoar developement. It is not too early for avalanches! In fact, our first skier triggered avalanche occured November 14. Here is an [59]an early season avalanche reminder. It does not take much snow to make a bad day, and even a small early season avalanche can drag someone through rocks. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is currently rated as LOW. Be cautious near all wind loaded aspects above tree line facing North through East as well as steep wind loaded gullies.