Aspen ===== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, collapsing,, cross loading, human triggered avalanches, powder , trough, whumphing, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 12/2/2007 3:58:19 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing statewide though a few clouds are lingering on the peaks. High clouds will slide across the state this afternoon as a flat upper level ridge works its way into the region. Warmer air slowly moves in overnight with daytime highs on Monday 8-12 degrees warmer than today. Winds diminish significantly in the San Juan, though remain moderate to strong in the Central and Northern Mountains tonight. Expect generally mild and dry conditions until midweek, when the next trough looks to move in to the area. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 20-25 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction W WNW WNW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Storm totals across the Aspen Zone range from 26-40 inches- not bad! Strong southwest winds transported new snow onto northeasterly aspects during the storm. Now, winds are veering to the WNW which will load east and southeasterly slopes. Near and above treeline fresh windslabs continue to build on this weak faced snow that formed early this season on slopes facing northwest, through northeast, through east. Look for cross loading of ridges gullies and other terrain features as well. Observers confirmed how tender the newly loaded layers are, reporting cracking, collapsing, whumphing and easily triggered small slides on north through easterly aspects. Human triggered avalanches are likely today, especially on steep NW, N, NE, E and SE facing slopes, near and above treeline. Given the weak nature of the old snowpack on these aspects, large avalanches are possible. Do not let the nice weather and draw of fresh powder draw you into making bad a bad decision. Be careful out there! Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Aspen Zone is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects and elevations. Human triggered avalanches are probable today. Your backcountry observations are very important to us. Observations can be submitted to [59]caic@qwest.net . Front Range =========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, collapsing , human triggered, natural, precipitation , slabs, trough, whumphing, wind loaded, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 12/2/2007 3:02:16 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing statewide though a few clouds are lingering on the peaks. High clouds will slide across the state this afternoon as a flat upper level ridge works its way into the region. Warmer air slowly moves in overnight with daytime highs on Monday 8-12 degrees warmer than today. Winds diminish significantly in the San Juan, though remain moderate to strong in the Central and Northern Mountains tonight. Expect generally mild and dry conditions until midweek, when the next trough looks to move in to the area. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 8-13 22-27 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 G/50 15-25 20-30 Wind Direction WNW W WNW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion The Front Range Zone received about a foot of fresh snow in the last storm. Observers noted several natural and human triggered slides throughout the zone this weekend. Slides predominantly occurred on north and easterly aspects at all elevations. Most natural activity occurred on heavily wind loaded slopes just below ridges. Backcountry travelers also reported extensive cracking, collapsing and whumphing as well. With snow covering all aspects, we have moved into a more wide-spread avalanche problem. Expect to find tender slabs in the backcountry today. Winds have blown consistently out of the west and southwest loading already sensitive north and easterly aspects. Fresh windslabs are perched on the weak faced snow that formed early this season. Remember that although the precipitation from the sky has stopped, the wind persists. This means it is still snowing in avalanche start zones! Consider this when route finding and do not ignore the signs of unstable snow. Approach steep slopes with caution and carefully evaluate slopes before committing to them. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects at all elevations. Unfortunately, these are the same areas that look like they offer the best conditions.It is MODERATE elsewhere. Human triggered avalanches are probable today. Be careful! Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: MODERATE, avalanche danger, dense, precipitation , settle, sluff, trough, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 12/2/2007 4:11:45 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing statewide though a few clouds are lingering on the peaks. High clouds will slide across the state this afternoon as a flat upper level ridge works its way into the region. Warmer air slowly moves in overnight with daytime highs on Monday 8-12 degrees warmer than today. Winds diminish significantly in the San Juan, though remain moderate to strong in the Central and Northern Mountains tonight. Expect generally mild and dry conditions until midweek, when the next trough looks to move in to the area. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 15-20 27-32 20-25 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction W WNW NW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Snow totals on the Grand Mesa are in the 20-25" range. Many of the low elevation areas got more rain than snow, but it looks like most of the precipitation fell as snow above 9,500'. The snow is probably quite dense, as it has a high water content and the temperatures have been quite warm. This will help new snow to settle and bond. The avalanche danger is low where new snow fell on bare ground. However, the old snow was quite weak and the new snow layers may be sensitive to the weight of a backcountry traveler. Watch out for sluff avalanches on any slope steeper than about 35 degrees.The most likely place to trigger an avalanche is on high elevation steep north or easterly slopes. The consequences of being caught in even a small slide could be quite severe if it pushes you into a pile of rocks, stand of trees, or a gully. Use caution and sound decision making if traveling in the backcountry today. Avalanche Danger There avalanche danger is generally MODERATE. Use extra caution on steep NW-N-NE-E slopes at high elevation. San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: , CONSIDERABLE, avalanche cycle, avalanche danger, collapsing, facets, human triggered avalanches, natural, natural avalanche, powder , settling, slabs, trough, whumphing, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 12/2/2007 3:52:34 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing statewide though a few clouds are lingering on the peaks. High clouds will slide across the state this afternoon as a flat upper level ridge works its way into the region. Warmer air slowly moves in overnight with daytime highs on Monday 8-12 degrees warmer than today. Winds diminish significantly in the San Juan, though remain moderate to strong in the Central and Northern Mountains tonight. Expect generally mild and dry conditions until midweek, when the next trough looks to move in to the area. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 15-20 23-28 17-22 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 5-15 10-20 Wind Direction W W WNW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion The clouds have cleared and we have tallied up the storm totals. Red Mt Pass received nearly 30 inches of snow with over 3.3 inches of water while Telluride reported 24 inch storm total (2 inches water). That is a lot of new load! Persistently strong and steadily south winds through Saturday are now trending to the west. While winds blew some snow to ranches in Montrose, lots more was transported, forming windslabs on open slopes. Northerly aspects have been getting especially loaded, particularly near and above treeline. Remember that these new slabs are sitting on weak, cohesionless facets. Stronger than usual winds have loaded slopes below treeline as well. Numerous natural and triggered avalanches have been reported throughout the zone. There are too many slides to list them all, but in summary, slides occurred on north and easterly aspects near, above and below treeline. Forecasters noted evidence of a decent mid-storm natural avalanche cycle. Observers near Telluride reported both natural and human triggered avalanches, including three remotely triggered slides- all on northerly slopes. Backcountry travelers noted all the classic signs of instability including cracking, collapsing and whumphing this weekend. Northwest, north, northeast and east aspects near and above treeline have the weakest snow layers under the recent storm snow and are the most hazardous. Backcountry travelers will undoubtedly be eager to get out on the snow today. The temptation will be great as we haven't had many powder days yet this season. This is a time to be very cautious - don't be tempted to jump into a slope just because you are powder starved! Use sound decision making when traveling in the backcountry an consider the consequences of being caught in even a small slide. Avalanche Danger We have dropped the avalanche warning in the Northern San Juan. The new snow has a high water content and is settling rapidly. We are lowering the avalanche danger to overall CONSIDERABLE. Be careful out there, and send us any observations you have from the field. Please [59]send us any observations. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, cross loading, crust, density, facets, human triggered, settling, trough, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 12/2/2007 4:25:08 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing statewide though a few clouds are lingering on the peaks. High clouds will slide across the state this afternoon as a flat upper level ridge works its way into the region. Warmer air slowly moves in overnight with daytime highs on Monday 8-12 degrees warmer than today. Winds diminish significantly in the San Juan, though remain moderate to strong in the Central and Northern Mountains tonight. Expect generally mild and dry conditions until midweek, when the next trough looks to move in to the area. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 15-20 25-30 18-23 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 5-15 10-20 Wind Direction W WNW NNW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion The Southern San Juan received a good dose of moisture from this storm. Correction from this morning: Storm totals on Wolf Creek Pass added up to 41 inches of snow with 7 inches of water! That is a huge amount of weight on the snowpack! Strong and steady winds have lasted the duration of the storm, averaging near 20mph and gusting up to 72mph out of the SSW. These winds have shifted to a more westerly flow so look for loading on north and easterly aspects and cross loading on ridges, gullies and other terrain features. Prior to this storm there was limited snow cover in the Southern San Juan Zone. This has changed almost overnight! The weakest snow can be found on northerly aspects that had the most snow prior to the storm. This snow is made up of cohesionless facets near the ground, topped by a wind crust from last week's strong NE winds. This is not a strong base for storm snow to rest upon.However, this storm produced surprisingly little avalanche action. This is likely due to the high moisture content of the new snow. Observers in the area noted that the snow was like 'Sierra cement', a term that refers to the high density snow that falls in the maritime climate to the west. As it name infers, this type of snow sets up rapidly. This being said, we are lowering the danger, though caution is still advised. Human triggered slides remain probable today. The most likely place to trigger an avalanche is on a wind loaded north or easterly aspect at higher elevation. Use sound decision making and continually evaluate the snowpack while traveling in the backcountry. Avalanche Danger We have dropped the avalanche warning in the Southern San Juan. The new snow has a high water content and is settling rapidly. We are lowering the avalanche danger to overall CONSIDERABLE. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: avalanche danger, drifts, sluffs, trough, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 12/2/2007 4:29:12 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing statewide though a few clouds are lingering on the peaks. High clouds will slide across the state this afternoon as a flat upper level ridge works its way into the region. Warmer air slowly moves in overnight with daytime highs on Monday 8-12 degrees warmer than today. Winds diminish significantly in the San Juan, though remain moderate to strong in the Central and Northern Mountains tonight. Expect generally mild and dry conditions until midweek, when the next trough looks to move in to the area. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 15-20 27-32 22-27 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 15-25 20-30 Wind Direction W WNW WNW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Clear Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion The Sangre de Cristo range picked up over an inch of water during this last storm. There was limited snow cover throughout the zone prior to the storm. The new snow is quite wet and came in with warm temperatures. It will probably stick pretty well to the bare ground. However, areas that were snow existed prior to the storm, namely high elevation north and easterly aspects, could be quite sensitive today. There has been quite a bit of wind with this event, so thick drifts and sensitive windslabs lurk in the high-elevations areas. If you are traveling in the high country you will be able to move from relatively safe to quite dangerous slopes very easily. Watch for changes in slope angle and aspect as these elements greatly effect snow stablity. In general, the avalanche danger will increase and you move up in elevation or onto steeper and/or shadier aspects. The most likely place to trigger an avalanche is on steep slopes that face northwest, north, northeast and east and are near and above treeline. Beware of warming temperatures on Monday. Loose wet sluffs are possible on steep rocky southerly slopes. Avalanche Danger We have insufficient data to rate the avalanche danger in the Sangre de Cristo Zone. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [59]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, cross loading, crossloaded, crusts, drifted, drifts, facets, powder , settle, slabs, start zones, trough, windloaded, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 12/2/2007 8:57:25 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing statewide though a few clouds are lingering on the peaks. High clouds will slide across the state this afternoon as a flat upper level ridge works its way into the region. Warmer air slowly moves in overnight with daytime highs on Monday 8-12 degrees warmer than today. Winds diminish significantly in the San Juan, though remain moderate to strong in the Central and Northern Mountains tonight. Expect generally mild and dry conditions until midweek, when the next trough looks to move in to the area. Weather Sunday Sunday Night Monday Temperature(°F) 15-20 12-17 22-27 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 20-30 G/40s 20-30 Wind Direction W WNW WNW Sky Cover Decreasing Partly Cloudy Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0-1 0 0 Snowpack Discussion We don't have much hard data from the Sawatch Zone at this time. However, we believe up to a foot of snow has fallen. New snow has fallen on top of a thin, weak snowpack. Strong winds have drifted and crossloaded snow into gullies and behind terrain features. Many of these drifts formed on older weak snow. Coverage prior to the storm was spotty, with the old snow remaining in steep, northerly gullies and pockets. Facets and crusts make up the stratigraphy of old snow. Both of these conditions make for poor bonding with new snow. Expect to find sensitive slabs in the backcountry today. It will take several days for the storm snow to settle. Our biggest concern remains in the southern portion of the zone, specifically, the Monarch Pass area, where we believe more snow has accumulated. Moderate to strong winds out of the southwest are building fresh windslabs, especially in near and above treeline areas. Look for loading on northerly aspects and cross loading on ridges, gullies and other terrain features. The most likely place to trigger an avalanche is on a steep, windloaded north or easterly slope at high elevation. The storm is all but over, but our avalanche problems are not. Today we urge you to use extra caution when traveling in the backcountry. As things stand, we have all the ingredients for an avalanche accident today. Please consider the following things. A thin, weak snowpack existed before the storm came in. All mountain areas received significant new snow accompanied by strong winds. Lee slopes and other terrain features are loaded and tender. Although the precipitation from the sky has stopped, the wind persists. This means it is still snowing in avalanche start zones! Add in clearing skies and bluebird vibes with powder hungry natives ready to charge and... BE VERY CAREFUL IF TRAVELING IN THE BACKCOUNTRY TODAY!! Consider the consequences of a bad decision! It could be deadly. Avalanche Danger The danger in the Sawatch Zone is CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind-loaded north, northeast, east and southeast facing slopes above treeline. Otherwise the danger is MODERATE Keep an eye out for fresh windslabs sitting on old snow. Please [59]send us observations if you are getting out. Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, drifted, drifts, facets, trough, whumpfing, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 12/2/2007 3:10:12 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing statewide though a few clouds are lingering on the peaks. High clouds will slide across the state this afternoon as a flat upper level ridge works its way into the region. Warmer air slowly moves in overnight with daytime highs on Monday 8-12 degrees warmer than today. Winds diminish significantly in the San Juan, though remain moderate to strong in the Central and Northern Mountains tonight. Expect generally mild and dry conditions until midweek, when the next trough looks to move in to the area. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 8-13 20-25 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 10-20 15-25 Wind Direction W W WNW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion The Steamboat Zone picked up 10 to 20 inches of new snow from the last storm. The snow on the ground prior to this week's storms was quite weak. New snow with wind has created sensitive drifts on top of the weak basal layers. Observers noted a reactive snowpack on steep, high elevation, northerly aspects where windslabs perch atop rotten facets. Make sure to use your safe travel skills and evaluate each slope before you cross. The old snow was quite patchy, and the avalanche danger will follow this pattern today. Beware of drifted and loaded slopes, especially on NW-N-NE- E aspects at higher elevations. Watch for signs of instability such as cracking, whumpfing sounds and recent avalanche activity. Consider the consequences of a bad decision before committing to steep slopes. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Steamboat Zone is MODERATE on steep NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects at higher elevations. Otherwise the avalanche danger is LOW. Vail ==== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, Human triggered avalanches, MODERATE, avalanche danger, collapsing,, natural, precipitation , slabs, trough, whumphing, wind loaded, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 12/2/2007 3:22:13 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing statewide though a few clouds are lingering on the peaks. High clouds will slide across the state this afternoon as a flat upper level ridge works its way into the region. Warmer air slowly moves in overnight with daytime highs on Monday 8-12 degrees warmer than today. Winds diminish significantly in the San Juan, though remain moderate to strong in the Central and Northern Mountains tonight. Expect generally mild and dry conditions until midweek, when the next trough looks to move in to the area. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 20-25 13-18 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 G/50 15-25 G/30s 20-30 Wind Direction W W W Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion The Vail/Summit Zone received up to 16 inches of fresh snow in the last storm. Observers confirmed how tender the newly loaded layers are, reporting lots of cracking, collapsing, whumphing and easily triggered small slides on north through easterly aspects. Both natural and triggered avalanches occurred on north and easterly aspects at all elevations as well. Naturals predominantly slid in heavily wind loaded areas below ridgelines. With snow covering all aspects, we have moved into a more wide-spread avalanche problem. Expect to find tender slabs in the backcountry today. Winds have blown consistently out of the west and southwest loading already sensitive north and easterly aspects. Fresh windslabs are perched on the weak faced snow that formed early this season. Remember that although the precipitation from the sky has stopped, the wind persists. This means it is still snowing in avalanche start zones! Consider this when route finding and do not ignore the signs of unstable snow. Approach steep slopes with caution and carefully evaluate slopes before committing to them. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is in the Vail/Summit Zone is CONSIDERABLE on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects at all elevations. Unfortunately, these are the same areas that look like they offer the best conditions.It is MODERATE elsewhere. Human triggered avalanches are probable today. Be careful!