Aspen ===== Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, depth hoar, faceted, facets, human triggered, loose snow avalanche, loose snow avalanches, low pressure, naturally, slabs, sluff, weak layer, wind slab, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 12/20/2007 2:19:23 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and the odd shower are filling in across the north and central mountains today. The next system is showing signs of splitting apart, and this could provide some interesting weather moments, especially Friday afternoon. For tonight look for snows to develop statewide, and with the current runs, the San Juans could well do the best. As the system splits a low pressure center develops over the 4 Corners and it looks like we'll be in for some developing upslope snows from the Wyoming border south to at least Monarch Pass and likely the Sangre de Cristos. Monarch and the Sangres could do well out of this. As the low center migrates eastward, some wrap around flow will bring better snows to the north side of the San Juan Range. This pattern lasts through Friday night with apparant drying by sunrise Saturday. Temperatures could be pretty chilly Saturday morning Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 15-20 15-20 -1-4 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 8-18 10-20 Wind Direction WSW N NW Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 2-4 2-4 1-3 Snowpack Discussion Just a little new snow has accumulated overnight around the Aspen Zone. 1.5" fell in Marble and on McClure Pass. Near Aspen only a trace of new snow has fallen. A few avalanches have been observed recently. On Tuesday we noted a small wind slab that failed naturally on a NE aspect above American Lake in the Ashcroft area at about 12,200 ft. Strong winds above treeline during the last five days have created many pockets of wind slab like this one. We have also had several reports of human triggered loose snow avalanche activity (sluff's) near and below treeline around the zone. The upper layer of the snowpack has lost a lot of strength recently and resulted in these loose snow avalanches on steeper slopes. Stronger winds above treeline have moved a lot of snow in the last five days. Above 12,000 ft right now you will find a snowpack that is highly variable and made up of varying depths of wind slab at the surface. E and NE aspects are the most heavily loaded and the potential for some larger triggered avalanches exists in steeper terrain on these aspects. Keep any eye out for areas where these slabs are resting on weaker faceted snow below. It may be starting to sound like a broken record, but we can't forget about that weak layer of facets and depth hoar at the base of the snowpack on higher elevations shady aspects. You will find this layer mostly on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E but keep an eye out for it in shady pockets and gullies on other aspects as well. Avalanches triggered on this layer will involve the whole season's snowpack. Observers have still noted some easy failures on this layer in some areas of the zone, including some tests that failed on the first tap or while cutting the back of the column. With an approaching storm in the forecast, our current snow surface conditions are worth paying attention to. On many aspects through a variety of elevations, a layer of faceted snow on top of the snowpack can be found. These facets have formed during the colder weather of the last couple weeks and will be a significant weak layer for future storms to fall on. This layer has been the cause of the loose snow avalanche activity reported recently. When in gets buried with new storm snow, we will need to pay careful attention to it. It may be a persistent problem in our snowpack for some time. Avalanche Danger Above treeline the avalanche danger is MODERATE on all aspects. Near and below treeline, danger is MODERATE on slopes facing west, northwest, north, northeast, and east. The danger is LOW on other aspects. Unstable wind slabs are possible on most steep slopes above 12,000 ft. Higher elevation shady slopes have a weak layer at the bottom of the snowpack. If triggered, this layer could result in some large avalanches. Great to see lots of people out traveling in the backcountry around the Aspen Zone this past week. Many thanks to those of you who have sent in observations. They are a great help to the forecasts. Please drop us a quick e-mail with your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations from this area or any other. Front Range =========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, denser, human triggered avalanches, lee , low pressure, powder. , slab, slabs, weak layers, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 12/20/2007 2:16:00 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and the odd shower are filling in across the north and central mountains today. The next system is showing signs of splitting apart, and this could provide some interesting weather moments, especially Friday afternoon. For tonight look for snows to develop statewide, and with the current runs, the San Juans could well do the best. As the system splits a low pressure center develops over the 4 Corners and it looks like we'll be in for some developing upslope snows from the Wyoming border south to at least Monarch Pass and likely the Sangre de Cristos. Monarch and the Sangres could do well out of this. As the low center migrates eastward, some wrap around flow will bring better snows to the north side of the San Juan Range. This pattern lasts through Friday night with apparant drying by sunrise Saturday. Temperatures could be pretty chilly Saturday morning Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 10-15 -2 to 3 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 G 50 5-15 G 20s 15-25 G 40s Wind Direction WSW SW->NE NE->NW Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 2-4 4-6 E of Divide, 2-4 W 2-4 E and Tr-2 W Snowpack Discussion No new reported activity from the Front Range zone since the 16th. Many of those slabs formed on top of the older powder. This strong over weak configuration can be triggered with the additional weight of a backcountry traveler in the wrong spot. Some recent reports from around the state hint that these wrong spots might be further down slope where the denser hard slab softens up. They wrong spot might also be in a thinner area of snow cover, like rock outcrops, or shallow covered cliff bands. We have seen little new snow now since Sunday and that is about to change. A potential problem area could be westerly aspects as easterly winds develop Friday afternoon. Westerly winds however continue to deposit what snow is left on west aspects onto lee aspect terrain. Generally it would be easy for me to lower the danger after a long spell of no activity. With the hard slab overlying weak layers, and the threat of deep slab instability I would have trouble center punching wind loaded bowls and gullies. It's easy to get lured out into these areas if we are not seeing avalanche activity. Hard slabs are an insidious beast. They love to lure us further onto avalanche slopes and just when we think we have dodged the monster, boom, we are off on Mr Toads wild ride. As the storm develops we will keep you updated on current avalanche conditions Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Front Range zone is CONSIDERABLE on northwest, north, northeast, and east aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable on steep wind loaded slopes. On southeast and south aspects above TL, MODERATE other aspects and elevations we are at LOW. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: avalanche danger, crusts, low pressure, melt-freeze, settled, shear, stabilized, surface hoar, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 12/20/2007 2:24:20 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and the odd shower are filling in across the north and central mountains today. The next system is showing signs of splitting apart, and this could provide some interesting weather moments, especially Friday afternoon. For tonight look for snows to develop statewide, and with the current runs, the San Juans could well do the best. As the system splits a low pressure center develops over the 4 Corners and it looks like we'll be in for some developing upslope snows from the Wyoming border south to at least Monarch Pass and likely the Sangre de Cristos. Monarch and the Sangres could do well out of this. As the low center migrates eastward, some wrap around flow will bring better snows to the north side of the San Juan Range. This pattern lasts through Friday night with apparant drying by sunrise Saturday. Temperatures could be pretty chilly Saturday morning Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 12-17 18-23 -2-3 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction SSW NNW NNE Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 3-5 1-3 0-2 Snowpack Discussion The snowpack in the Grand Mesa Zone has settled and stabilized since the last storm. Our forecaster in the area noted widespread 2mm surface hoar covering the snow on Tuesday. In places, this surface hoar is sitting on stiff wind crusts. This is a bad combination with a new load of snow in the forecast. Surface hoar is notoriously weak in shear and will not support a very large load before failing. Lower elevation sunny slopes likely have melt-freeze crusts, which will not bond well with new snow either. The bottom line: as the snow piles up, the avalanche danger is likely to rise as these surfaces become reactive with new load. Avalanches will likely be limited to surface snow and are not expected to step down. Be aware of changing conditions during the incoming storms. Avalanche Danger We have insufficient data to rate the avalanche danger in the Grand Mesa Zone. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross-loaded, density, drifts, faceted, facets, low pressure, powder , slab, slabs, stabilizing, wind slabs, windloaded, windloading, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 12/20/2007 2:29:56 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and the odd shower are filling in across the north and central mountains today. The next system is showing signs of splitting apart, and this could provide some interesting weather moments, especially Friday afternoon. For tonight look for snows to develop statewide, and with the current runs, the San Juans could well do the best. As the system splits a low pressure center develops over the 4 Corners and it looks like we'll be in for some developing upslope snows from the Wyoming border south to at least Monarch Pass and likely the Sangre de Cristos. Monarch and the Sangres could do well out of this. As the low center migrates eastward, some wrap around flow will bring better snows to the north side of the San Juan Range. This pattern lasts through Friday night with apparant drying by sunrise Saturday. Temperatures could be pretty chilly Saturday morning Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 11-16 15-20 -2-3 Wind Speed(mph) 12-22 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction SSW SW->NW NE Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 3-5 2-4 3-5 N side Snowpack Discussion Recent winds have worked their way around the compass even in just the last 24 hours. Wind directions have changed from south to west to northeast and everywhere in between. For now local ridgetop weather stations are showing south and west winds averaging in the teens and gusting into the 30s - those are perfect speeds for transporting new snow. Yesterday's snowfall in our zone added up to between 1-4", depending on location. While that isn't a lot of new snow, gusty winds are transporting it easily and continuing to change the upper snowpack, particularly on northerly and easterly aspects near and above treeline. You can expect to find developing wind slabs, drifts, and cross-loaded terrain features on a variety of aspects on higher elevation slopes, as well as on exposed areas below treeline. These slabs can be thick and deep, and they may be reactive on steep slopes where they are sitting on low-density powder or facets. On that note, the snow safety team at Telluride got more impressive results on Wednesday. Their efforts pulled out three significant hard slabs from west-northwest terrain near and above treeline. Two of the slabs ran to the ground, and one dislodged a huge boulder (3 meter diameter) and carried it over 400 vertical feet. Knowing that deep hard slabs like these are possible is a bit unnerving and gives us a good reason to take extra caution when venturing out into high alpine terrain. Hard slab releases can be very challenging to predict: the snow underfoot can feel firm and "bomber," giving you a sense of security. However, because these slabs are so cohesive, and in many areas are sitting on top of weak faceted snow, they have the potential to be triggered from afar and often fracture above the point of initiation. Though persistent slabs and weaknesses do exist, particularly on high northerly terrain, observers report a generally stabilizing snowpack. Backcountry travelers are tracking up a variety of aspects and slope angles without reported incidents. This is encouraging, but don't take our snowpack for granted! Another round of storms is moving through our region tonight and tomorrow, and may bring a fresh round of avalanche problems. For today, keep alert for fresh slabs formed by windloading, particularly on northerly and easterly aspects near and above treeline. As snow adds up, keep getting out and enjoying the backcountry, but also pay close attention to changing snowpack conditions and adhere to strict backcountry protocol - let's keep this season in the Northern San Juan Zone accident free! Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Northern San Juan is MODERATE on all aspects and elevations except SE-S-SW aspects near and below treeline where the danger is LOW. Be particularly careful on steep windloaded slopes near and above treeline where it is possible to trigger unstable slabs. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: LOW, avalanche danger, crusts, faceting, facets, low pressure, settle, stabilize, surface hoar, weak layers, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 12/20/2007 2:28:37 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and the odd shower are filling in across the north and central mountains today. The next system is showing signs of splitting apart, and this could provide some interesting weather moments, especially Friday afternoon. For tonight look for snows to develop statewide, and with the current runs, the San Juans could well do the best. As the system splits a low pressure center develops over the 4 Corners and it looks like we'll be in for some developing upslope snows from the Wyoming border south to at least Monarch Pass and likely the Sangre de Cristos. Monarch and the Sangres could do well out of this. As the low center migrates eastward, some wrap around flow will bring better snows to the north side of the San Juan Range. This pattern lasts through Friday night with apparant drying by sunrise Saturday. Temperatures could be pretty chilly Saturday morning Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 12-17 23-28 3-8 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 G 30 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction SW SW SW Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 4-6 4-6 0-2 Snowpack Discussion Recent mild weather has helped the snowpack to settle and stabilize. However, observers note they have found north and easterly aspects still hold weak layers such as facets and buried surface hoar. Another round of storms are forecast over the next couple of days. They are not looking as strong as the ones of the recent past. Now is the time to think about what this new snow will be falling on and how it will bond. Observers in the Purgatory area noted widespread surface hoar development on the northern half of the compass while on the southern half, angled slopes have formed surface crusts. Observers have also noted near surface faceting in cool areas. Currently, none of these layers pose a problem. However, they do tend to bond poorly with fresh snow and will become reactive with the addition of new snow load in the future. Keep this in mind as snow piles up the next couple days. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is LOW on all aspects and at all elevations. There are isolated areas where you could trigger avalanches on steep slopes. You will want to examine the snowack carefully before committing to steep terrain. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: avalanche danger, cross loaded, density, drifts, facets, low pressure, powder , settle, slab, slabs, stabilize, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 12/20/2007 2:25:54 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and the odd shower are filling in across the north and central mountains today. The next system is showing signs of splitting apart, and this could provide some interesting weather moments, especially Friday afternoon. For tonight look for snows to develop statewide, and with the current runs, the San Juans could well do the best. As the system splits a low pressure center develops over the 4 Corners and it looks like we'll be in for some developing upslope snows from the Wyoming border south to at least Monarch Pass and likely the Sangre de Cristos. Monarch and the Sangres could do well out of this. As the low center migrates eastward, some wrap around flow will bring better snows to the north side of the San Juan Range. This pattern lasts through Friday night with apparant drying by sunrise Saturday. Temperatures could be pretty chilly Saturday morning Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 7-12 16-21 3-8 Wind Speed(mph) 17-27 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction WSW SW->NE NE Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 1-3 3-5 E side 3-5 E side Snowpack Discussion The upcoming storm could bring some good snows to the Sangres over the next few days. With easterly winds during at least part of the storm, westerly aspects could see some slab development. Recent mild weather helped the snowpack to settle and stabilize. Don't let this make you complacent though. Weak layers still lurk on north and easterly aspects. Strong and persistant winds have changed the snowpack, stripping snow from some areas while depositing it in others. Winds have blown from the southwest to west to north and back again. This means that you can expect to find fresh wind slabs, drifts, and cross loaded terrain features on a variety of aspects on higher elevation slopes as well as on exposed areas below treeline. These slabs may be reactive on steep slopes where they are sitting on low-density powder or facets. Work into steeper terrain gradually, reevaluating the snowpack often. Avalanche Danger We have insufficient data to rate the avalanche danger in the Sangre de Cristo Zone. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross loaded, crossloading, drifting, drifts, faceted, facets, low pressure, powder. , slab, slabs, wind drifting, wind loaded, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 12/20/2007 2:29:12 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and the odd shower are filling in across the north and central mountains today. The next system is showing signs of splitting apart, and this could provide some interesting weather moments, especially Friday afternoon. For tonight look for snows to develop statewide, and with the current runs, the San Juans could well do the best. As the system splits a low pressure center develops over the 4 Corners and it looks like we'll be in for some developing upslope snows from the Wyoming border south to at least Monarch Pass and likely the Sangre de Cristos. Monarch and the Sangres could do well out of this. As the low center migrates eastward, some wrap around flow will bring better snows to the north side of the San Juan Range. This pattern lasts through Friday night with apparant drying by sunrise Saturday. Temperatures could be pretty chilly Saturday morning Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 8-13 17-22 -3-2 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G 50s 10-20 G 30s 10-20 Wind Direction WSW SW->NE NE Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 2-4 3-5 3-5 Snowpack Discussion Since our last storm over a week ago, there has been lots of drifting and transport of snow above treeline from the strong winds. It is possible to find fresh wind slabs, sensitive drifts, and cross loaded terrain features on higher elevation slopes as well as on exposed areas near treeline. Many of the new slabs formed on top of the older, recycled powder. This strong over weak configuration can be triggered by the additional weight of a backcountry traveler, especially when you are at the slab edges. On Monday, at and below treeline, I experienced no signs of instability and was out of the wind. We currently have two avalanche problems. First, very weak faceted grains near the ground. These grains feel like sugar, are very persistent and will remain a problem well into the New Year. The second problem is above treeline on aspects of the entire eastern half of the compass where wind loaded snow has been deposited on either new snow or recycled powder. It's like a layer of pound cake above a layer of angle food cake. The pound cake layer may feel stiff but the problem is that it can lure you out further on a steep slope. When you get to the edges of the slab, it fractures and there is a lot of snow above you. These hard slab avalanches are very difficult to escape. Basal layer facets are becoming more pronounced on high elevation, shady slopes. There remains potential to trigger large, deep avalanches in these locations. Avalanches are becoming more difficult to trigger, but the structure of the snowpack still dictates a cautious approach to backcountry travel. Use caution and sound decision making while traveling in the backcountry today. The forecast calls for more snow, moderate to strong winds and cold temperatures. The picture in my mind is untracked slopes that will become loaded even more than the current picture. The danger may be on the rise throughout the zone. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on northwest, north, northeast, east, and southeast aspects above treeline. Be cautious near steep slopes that have recent wind drifting and loading. The danger is MODERATE on all aspects at treeline and other aspects above treeline. Again, watch for steep slopes with crossloading or drifting. Below treeline the danger is LOW on all aspects. Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: avalanche danger, crossloaded, crusts, facets, lee , low pressure, recrystallized, slab, slabs, surface hoar, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 12/20/2007 2:09:48 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and the odd shower are filling in across the north and central mountains today. The next system is showing signs of splitting apart, and this could provide some interesting weather moments, especially Friday afternoon. For tonight look for snows to develop statewide, and with the current runs, the San Juans could well do the best. As the system splits a low pressure center develops over the 4 Corners and it looks like we'll be in for some developing upslope snows from the Wyoming border south to at least Monarch Pass and likely the Sangre de Cristos. Monarch and the Sangres could do well out of this. As the low center migrates eastward, some wrap around flow will bring better snows to the north side of the San Juan Range. This pattern lasts through Friday night with apparant drying by sunrise Saturday. Temperatures could be pretty chilly Saturday morning Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 9-14 17-22 0-5 Wind Speed(mph) 12-22 G 30s 5-15 11-21 Wind Direction WSW WNW W Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 4-6 3-5 1-3 Snowpack Discussion No recent obs from the Steamboat zone backcountry. A little more new snow in the forecast, though winds do look to decrease, one could suspect a fresh slab build-up near and above treeline on slopes to the lee of the prevailing westerly winds. Another round of storms will move through over the next few days bringing new avalanche problems. Now is the time to think about what this new snow will be falling on and how it will bond. Surface crusts have formed on lower elevation sunny slopes while near-surface facets and surface hoar have likely formed on cooler aspects. These small, angular, recrystallized surface grains do not currently pose a problem. However, these grains tend to bond poorly and will become reactive with the addition of new snow load in the future. Keep this in mind as snow piles up the next few days. Re-evaluate the snowpack often on your tours through the weekend, and practice conservative decision making. Winds will be running from SW to N to NE. Avalanche Danger We have insufficient data to rate the avalanche danger in the Steamboat Zone. The most problematic areas are probably steep north, northeast, and east facing slopes that have old, weak snow underneath. Expect some crossloaded soft slabs on high elevation slopes. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [57]caic@qwest.net. Vail ==== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, crowns, faceted, human triggered avalanches, low pressure, natural, powder. , shovel, slab, slabs, wind loaded, wind slab, windward, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 12/20/2007 2:42:00 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and the odd shower are filling in across the north and central mountains today. The next system is showing signs of splitting apart, and this could provide some interesting weather moments, especially Friday afternoon. For tonight look for snows to develop statewide, and with the current runs, the San Juans could well do the best. As the system splits a low pressure center develops over the 4 Corners and it looks like we'll be in for some developing upslope snows from the Wyoming border south to at least Monarch Pass and likely the Sangre de Cristos. Monarch and the Sangres could do well out of this. As the low center migrates eastward, some wrap around flow will bring better snows to the north side of the San Juan Range. This pattern lasts through Friday night with apparant drying by sunrise Saturday. Temperatures could be pretty chilly Saturday morning Weather Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Temperature(°F) 12-17 12-17 -2 to 3 Wind Speed(mph) 12-22 G 40s 5-15 10-20 Wind Direction WSW SW->NE NE->NW Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 1-3 3-5 1-3 Snowpack Discussion News of triggered avalanche activity continues to come in from the Summit County and Vail zone. On Tuesday a skier triggered a good sized slab on a NE aspect just below treeline near Vail. The gentleman was carried by the slab, which failed about 20 feet above him, for about 800 feet. Escape routes were not present so he had no option but to ride it out which had him buried for most of the trip, but he popped out just as the slide was coming to a stop. This ride took him over at least one 15 foot cliff. He ended up with only some impact bruises to his thigh, lost a ski, one pole, hat and goggles and his shovel was ripped off his pack. Crown was 4 feet deep at the deepest, and about 60 feet wide. This was a wind slab created from recent moderate to sometimes strong westerly winds. Another report filtered in Wednesday morning of a natural slide in the backcountry just outside Breceknridge, east aspect near treeline. We also had an observation of a couple of 1 foot crowns on a NE aspect of Northstar mountain near Hoosier Pass. These were above treeline, and not sure when they may have run. The fractures were still fairly defined, so likely in the recent past. Yesterday, touring in the Loveland Pass area, I observed two older slab avalanches, both on east aspects, above treeline and involving wind loaded snow. There seems to be a re-occuring theme in the zone with avalanche activity. Above treeline, north east through south east aspect and wind loaded. While touring yesterday, I could see why those aspects look appealing as they are the only aspects above treeline that have snow on them. Most of the fetches or windward aspects are devoid of snow. At and below treeline, I experienced no signs of instability and was out of the wind. We currently have two avalanche problems. First, very weak faceted grains near the ground. These grains feel like sugar, are very persistent and will remain a problem well into the New Year. The sceond problem is above treeline on aspects of the entire eastern half of the compass where wind loaded snow has been deposited on either new snow or recycled powder. It's like a layer of pound cake above a layer of angle food cake. The pound cake layer may feel stiff but the problem is that it can lure you out further on a steep slope. When you get to the edges of the slab, it fractures and there is a lot of snow above you. These hard slab avalanches are very difficult to escape. Choose your terrain wisely, avoiding steep wind loaded slopes, have escape routes planned and ride one at a time. Loading will become even more of a concern with new snow in the forecast with gusty west and south west winds. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Vail Summit zone is MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on north through east through south aspects above treeline. MODERATE on all aspects at treeline and LOW below treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable above treeline on north through east through south aspects. Unstable slabs are possible on steep slopes.