Aspen ===== Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross loading, drifts, faceted, faceting, high pressure, lee , slab, slabs, weak layers, wind loading, wind slab, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 12/23/2007 3:32:36 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and cold snow with little accumulations in store for the rest of Sunday. High pressure is building in behind todays storm, but it will be short lived. First we must get through another windy night along the Continental Divide and Front Ranges in the north and central mountains as well as the higher ridges of the north San Juan. Monday looks to dawn mostly clear and cold with gradually building clouds, and possibly some late day snowshowers from about I-70 and north Monday afternoon. The next system rolls in Monday night and once again favors the north and central zones with the north side of the San Juan also in the possible list. Look for drying again on Tuesday and then another storm for Wednesday. We seem to be in the flow for awhile. Anyone out there celebrating a birthday today probably had good riding conditions, but it might have been tough to stay warm. Sure beats hot dry and dusty like early November. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) -2 to 3 22-27 2-7 Wind Speed(mph) 12-22G40 10-20 G40 10-20 G 30s Wind Direction NW WNW W Sky Cover Decreasing Increasing Overcast Snow(in) 0-1 0-1 2-4 Snowpack Discussion New snow over the Aspen zone varied quite a bit. Since Thursday night McClure Pass picked up about 6", Schofield 9", Aspen Mountain 13", and around 5" at Ivanhoe in the Frying Pan. More snow has fallen today so it continues to add up. Moderate to strong winds blew from the south and southwest, and most recently from the northwest. You can expect to find areas of wind loading and cross loading on a variety of aspects near and above treeline. The winds will be strong enough over the next 24-48 hours to continue to build fresh slab on lee slopes to prevailing westerly winds. Above treeline, under this most recent storm snow, you will find a snowpack that is highly variable and made up of lots of old wind slab. Cold temperatures returned on Saturday and more snow is in the forecast. This all adds up to increasing complexity in the snowpack. On westerly aspects where the wind has reduced the snowpack depth, the cold temperatures will promote the faceting process. This will become a problem when new snow load is added through the season. On northerly and easterly aspects, you will need to be thinking about deep slab instability. It may be difficult to trigger, but if you do, the avalanche will go large. You should avoid stout wind slabs on steep slopes. They will support your weight providing a false sense of security, but these slabs have the potential to be triggered from afar and often fracture above the point of initiation. Getting caught in a hard slab avalanche will ruin your holiday. Avalanche Danger Above treeline the avalanche danger is CONSDIERABLE on north, northeast, and east aspects and MODERATE on other aspects. Danger is an overall MODERATE at treeline. Below treeline danger is MODERATE on W-NW-N-NE-E aspects and LOW on other aspects. Unstable wind slabs and drifts are likely today on many steep slopes above treeline, and possible on steep slopes near treeline. On a many aspects and elevations, two weak layers of faceted snow exist. One at the base of the snowpack from October snows, and one just under the new snow. Both of these layers will make human triggered avalanches possible today. We have been receiving many good observations from the Aspen Zone in the past week. Huge thanks to those of you who have sent them in. The information is a great help to the forecasts. Please drop us a quick e-mail with your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations from this area or any other. Front Range =========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, avalanche paths, collapse , cross loaded, denser, facets, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, lee , slab, wind loaded, wind slab, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 12/23/2007 4:03:44 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and cold snow with little accumulations in store for the rest of Sunday. High pressure is building in behind todays storm, but it will be short lived. First we must get through another windy night along the Continental Divide and Front Ranges in the north and central mountains as well as the higher ridges of the north San Juan. Monday looks to dawn mostly clear and cold with gradually building clouds, and possibly some late day snowshowers from about I-70 and north Monday afternoon. The next system rolls in Monday night and once again favors the north and central zones with the north side of the San Juan also in the possible list. Look for drying again on Tuesday and then another storm for Wednesday. We seem to be in the flow for awhile. Anyone out there celebrating a birthday today probably had good riding conditions, but it might have been tough to stay warm. Sure beats hot dry and dusty like early November. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) -5-0 17-22 1-6 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 G 60+ 20-30 G 70 20-30 G 60 Wind Direction NW WNW W Sky Cover Decreasing Increasing Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-2 0-2 2-4 Snowpack Discussion It seems like the winter solstice has been dealing cold, wind and snow, just what we should expect. The game is becoming a lot more complex. October snows changed to sugar on the high elevation northerly aspects. The late November and early December storms deposited snow with a high water content, which in a wonderful life would make for a solid base allowing us to concentrate on what each new storm does to the upper layers of the snowpack. On the southeast to west aspects this probably still holds true for the moment. But at this time of year, clear nights and cold temperatures are working to change that solid snowpack to something a little less pleasant. This changing snowpack in general holds true across all aspects and elevations. Our snowpack has started to change to one that will become a little less strong and less resistant to collapse and failure if the current trend continues. This is Colorado, and that is what we can expect. We have also had some pretty impressive hard slab development over the past couple of windy weeks across the Front Range zone. The harder and denser snow is a little more resistant to rotting away to sugar, especially as it continues to build after each layer of new snow re-deposits. With this developing scenario we are forecasting a continued threat of deep slab instability for one of the two current concerns. This is our second concern, with the winds and new snow fresh slab will continue to build on lee and cross loaded aspects even below treeline. We've had a couple observations Sunday telling of fresh though shallow soft slab build-up on lee aspects near and below treeline developing from the current north and west winds. Due to less than ideal weather conditions observations have been nil above treeline. Not a surprise, as wind chills would be pretty rough on exposed ears and noses. Not to mention the difficulty in sensing the increasing threat of larger fresh wind slab above treeline. If the current trend of cold clear nights continues following regular storm cycles, our avalanche paths will fill in with a lot of snow, which would quickly change to facets, meaning we could see some large avalanches in the future, capable of running some long distances. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Front Range zone is CONSIDERABLE on northwest, north, northeast, east, southeast and south aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable on steep, wind loaded slopes. On southwest, and west, aspects near and above treeline the danger is MODERATE. Below treeline the danger is LOW with areas of MODERATE on northeast to southeast aspects. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: avalanche danger, control work, crusts, faceted, high pressure, melt-freeze, settled, shear, slab, sluffs, stabilized, surface hoar, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 12/23/2007 3:08:04 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and cold snow with little accumulations in store for the rest of Sunday. High pressure is building in behind todays storm, but it will be short lived. First we must get through another windy night along the Continental Divide and Front Ranges in the north and central mountains as well as the higher ridges of the north San Juan. Monday looks to dawn mostly clear and cold with gradually building clouds, and possibly some late day snowshowers from about I-70 and north Monday afternoon. The next system rolls in Monday night and once again favors the north and central zones with the north side of the San Juan also in the possible list. Look for drying again on Tuesday and then another storm for Wednesday. We seem to be in the flow for awhile. Anyone out there celebrating a birthday today probably had good riding conditions, but it might have been tough to stay warm. Sure beats hot dry and dusty like early November. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 2-7 25-30 6-11 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 G30s 5-15 G20s 5-15 G 20s Wind Direction NW SW NW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Increasing Overcast Snow(in) 0 0-2 2-4 Snowpack Discussion The snowpack in the Grand Mesa Zone has settled and stabilized since the last storm. Friday morning, CDOT control work triggered two small soft slab avalanches and several loose snow sluffs. The slides were in the recent snow, and not in the older snowpack. Snow Sunday, and several more chances during the next five days, will add a soft slab to the weak surface. Our forecaster in the area noted widespread 2 mm surface hoar covering the snow on Tuesday, and it is now buried under several inches of snow. This is a bad combination. Surface hoar is notoriously weak in shear and will not support a very large load before failing. Lower elevation sunny slopes likely have melt-freeze crusts, which will not bond well with new snow either. This all adds up to increasing complexity in the snowpack. Sunday's storm is not expected to add much weight to the snowpack, but Tuesday's storm may be more substantial. The avalanche danger will likely hold steady and then increase as the upcoming week unfolds. Avalanche Danger We have insufficient data to rate the avalanche danger in the Grand Mesa Zone. The most problematic areas are probably steep slopes that have weak faceted snow under new snow. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [57]caic@qwest.net. San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, facet, faceting, high pressure, natural, slab, slabs, sluffs, wind slabs, wind-loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 12/23/2007 3:29:32 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and cold snow with little accumulations in store for the rest of Sunday. High pressure is building in behind todays storm, but it will be short lived. First we must get through another windy night along the Continental Divide and Front Ranges in the north and central mountains as well as the higher ridges of the north San Juan. Monday looks to dawn mostly clear and cold with gradually building clouds, and possibly some late day snowshowers from about I-70 and north Monday afternoon. The next system rolls in Monday night and once again favors the north and central zones with the north side of the San Juan also in the possible list. Look for drying again on Tuesday and then another storm for Wednesday. We seem to be in the flow for awhile. Anyone out there celebrating a birthday today probably had good riding conditions, but it might have been tough to stay warm. Sure beats hot dry and dusty like early November. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) -1-4 18-23 2-7 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G40s 15-25 G40s 15-25 G 40s Wind Direction N WNW NW Sky Cover Mostly Clear Increasing Overcast Snow(in) 0 0 1-3 Snowpack Discussion New snow since Thursday over the Northern San Juan zone varied from 3-9" below treeline. Our observer on Saturday took a Highway 550 tour and noted evidence of high winds on about every aspect and elevation. Above treeline, W-N-NE aspects are virtually stripped or thinned to rock except for pockets of crossed loaded gully features. No new avalanche activity was noted along the 550 corridor. However, four new soft slab natural slides were observed near Ophir - Silver Mtn, SE aspect from about 12,000' + - 1' deep, 75-150' wide, and 400-550' long that ran on the old snow surface. One deeper release in Nevada Gulch NE aspect at 11,900 ft. Fracture depth ranged from 1-4 feet deep. Lots of dry loose sluffs reported as well, a sign that the older snow continues to facet and weaken. With the change in wind direction, expect to find fresh wind slabs on more southerly aspects above treeline. Control work on Friday at Telluride continued to get results including a hard slab slide, 2' deep, 100' wide, and 250' vertical on a N aspect at treeline. Cold temperatures returned and more snow is in the forecast. This all adds up to increasing complexity in the snowpack. On aspects where the wind has reduced the snowpack depth, the cold temperatures will promote the faceting process. This will become a problem when new snow load is added through the season. On northerly and easterly aspects, you still need to be thinking about deep slab instability. You should avoid stout wind slabs on steep slopes. They will support your weight providing a false sense of security, but these slabs have the potential to be triggered from afar and often fracture above the point of initiation. Getting caught in a hard slab avalanche will ruin your holiday. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Northern San Juan is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects above treeline. You will find unstable, wind-loaded slabs on steep slopes. Near and below treeline the danger is MODERATE on all aspects except SE-S-SW aspects below treeline, where the danger is LOW. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cornice, high pressure, human triggered, slab, sluffs, surface hoar, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 12/23/2007 3:13:35 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and cold snow with little accumulations in store for the rest of Sunday. High pressure is building in behind todays storm, but it will be short lived. First we must get through another windy night along the Continental Divide and Front Ranges in the north and central mountains as well as the higher ridges of the north San Juan. Monday looks to dawn mostly clear and cold with gradually building clouds, and possibly some late day snowshowers from about I-70 and north Monday afternoon. The next system rolls in Monday night and once again favors the north and central zones with the north side of the San Juan also in the possible list. Look for drying again on Tuesday and then another storm for Wednesday. We seem to be in the flow for awhile. Anyone out there celebrating a birthday today probably had good riding conditions, but it might have been tough to stay warm. Sure beats hot dry and dusty like early November. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 19-24 4-9 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 G 30s 10-20 G 30s 10-20 Wind Direction WSW WSW W Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Increasing Overcast Snow(in) 0 0 0-2 Snowpack Discussion About 8" of snow has fallen on the Southern San Juan since Thursday. Our observer on Saturday noted no new avalanche activity with the exception of some loose sluffs. Compression tests on an east aspect just below treeline showed moderate scores on old surface hoar. Some pretty large cornice chunks dropped into a NE aspect at treeline created some minor slabbing but no propagation just below the ridge. Human triggered slides remain possible near and above treeline on all aspects. The avalanche danger should hold steady until more significant new snow arrives on Tuesday. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all aspects near and above treeline. On other aspects and below treeline the danger is LOW. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: avalanche danger, cross-loading, density, faceting, facets, high pressure, powder , settled, stabilized, weak layers, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 12/23/2007 3:09:10 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and cold snow with little accumulations in store for the rest of Sunday. High pressure is building in behind todays storm, but it will be short lived. First we must get through another windy night along the Continental Divide and Front Ranges in the north and central mountains as well as the higher ridges of the north San Juan. Monday looks to dawn mostly clear and cold with gradually building clouds, and possibly some late day snowshowers from about I-70 and north Monday afternoon. The next system rolls in Monday night and once again favors the north and central zones with the north side of the San Juan also in the possible list. Look for drying again on Tuesday and then another storm for Wednesday. We seem to be in the flow for awhile. Anyone out there celebrating a birthday today probably had good riding conditions, but it might have been tough to stay warm. Sure beats hot dry and dusty like early November. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 4-9 21-26 7-12 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 13-23 16-26 Wind Direction N WNW W Sky Cover Decreasing Increasing Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-1 0 0-1 Snowpack Discussion The Sangre zone has likely received new snow from the last couple systems, but we have received no observations indicating how much. Winds varied during the storm from southwest early and then later veered to north and northeast. Fresh wind slabs and cross-loading are possible on most open aspects. In neighboring zones, non-wind affected areas below treeline have settled and stabilized, but you may still find weak layers lurking on north and easterly aspects. You will find the most suspect slopes above treeline on N-NE-E aspects where a combination of wind slabs sits on top of low-density powder or facets. Cold temperatures have returned on Saturday which will promote the base layer faceting process where the snowpack is relatively shallow. Several possibilities for snow are in the five-day forecast further complicating the snowpack. You should cautiously work into steeper terrain gradually, reevaluating the snowpack often. Avalanche Danger We have insufficient data to rate the avalanche danger in the Sangre de Cristo Zone. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross-loaded, cross-loading, density, depth hoar, drifted, drifting, faceting, facets, high pressure, paths, powder , settled, slab, slabs, wind loading, wind slab, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 12/23/2007 3:12:31 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and cold snow with little accumulations in store for the rest of Sunday. High pressure is building in behind todays storm, but it will be short lived. First we must get through another windy night along the Continental Divide and Front Ranges in the north and central mountains as well as the higher ridges of the north San Juan. Monday looks to dawn mostly clear and cold with gradually building clouds, and possibly some late day snowshowers from about I-70 and north Monday afternoon. The next system rolls in Monday night and once again favors the north and central zones with the north side of the San Juan also in the possible list. Look for drying again on Tuesday and then another storm for Wednesday. We seem to be in the flow for awhile. Anyone out there celebrating a birthday today probably had good riding conditions, but it might have been tough to stay warm. Sure beats hot dry and dusty like early November. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 17-22 2-7 Wind Speed(mph) 27-37G60s 28-38 G70s 15-25 G 50s Wind Direction NW WSW W Sky Cover Mostly Clear Increasing Overcast Snow(in) 0 0 1-3 Snowpack Discussion Friday in the Cottonwood Pass area, Brad experienced near white out conditions most of the day. On Saturday, observers noted clear skies, cold temperatures, and significant blowing snow well above treeline which have continued into Sunday. The primary concerns remain near and above treeline where deep slab instability may exist on NW-NE-SE aspects. With the new snow, the wind will determine our next avalanche cycle. Friday's snow added yet another layer of new slabs. It was very light, and drifted easily. Expect to find wind slabs, drifts, and cross-loaded terrain features on a variety of aspects near and above treeline and with the strong winds we can expect small pockets in lee terrain features. The stack of slabs can be thick and deep, and they may be reactive on steep slopes where they are sitting on top of low-density powder or facets. Keep on top of changing conditions and wind loading. Watch areas well below treeline for new slab build-up from recent strong winds. The older snowpack has settled down and no one has reported recent avalanche activity in the older layers. Of course poor visibility does not allow good backcountry obs. The older snow is faceting, but that poses little problem until the snow is topped by a wind slab. Faceting is much more rapid in shallow snow, like the stating zones of avalanches that have already run this year. We often see paths reload and run on depth hoar again. Other suspect terrain would be areas where there are fresh, soft wind slabs. Approach these newly loaded areas with caution. The avalanche danger should hold steady until more significant new snow arrives on Tuesday. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on northwest, north, northeast, east, and southeast aspects near and above treeline. The danger is MODERATE on all aspects at treeline and other aspects above treeline. Watch for steep slopes with cross-loading or drifting. Below treeline the danger is LOW on all aspects. Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: avalanche danger, collapsing,, cross-loaded, cross-loading, crusts, depth hoar, faceted, facets, high pressure, slabs, surface hoar, weak layers, wind slabs, wind-drifted, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 12/23/2007 3:06:03 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and cold snow with little accumulations in store for the rest of Sunday. High pressure is building in behind todays storm, but it will be short lived. First we must get through another windy night along the Continental Divide and Front Ranges in the north and central mountains as well as the higher ridges of the north San Juan. Monday looks to dawn mostly clear and cold with gradually building clouds, and possibly some late day snowshowers from about I-70 and north Monday afternoon. The next system rolls in Monday night and once again favors the north and central zones with the north side of the San Juan also in the possible list. Look for drying again on Tuesday and then another storm for Wednesday. We seem to be in the flow for awhile. Anyone out there celebrating a birthday today probably had good riding conditions, but it might have been tough to stay warm. Sure beats hot dry and dusty like early November. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 0-5 21-26 2-7 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 G 30 10-20 G 30 12-22 G 30s Wind Direction WNW WSW W Sky Cover Decreasing Increasing Overcast Snow(in) 0-2 0-2 3-5 Snowpack Discussion More snow in the near term forecast, but that comes with cold temepratures and moderate to strong winds near and above treeline. An observer's test pit on Friday at the top of Fish Creek Canyon, near Steamboat, showed two thin layers of depth hoar at the base that took a good amount of force before it failed, but it did fail. Periods of gusty winds have varied from west-northwesterly to northerly and then back to westerly on Saturday. This all adds up to increasing complexity in the snowpack. Fresh wind slabs and cross-loaded terrain features will be found on many exposed aspects, especially north through east to south. The old snowpack underneath has some weak layers most likely on north through east aspects. Buried sun crusts exist on lower elevation sunny slopes while near-surface facets and surface hoar have likely been buried by storm and wind-drifted snow on shadier aspects. While traveling in the backcountry, you will need to watch for various combinations of all these features. The most suspect combination will be on exposed north through east aspects where fresh wind slabs may have developed on top of weaker layers. The avalanche danger has trended upward. Avoid areas where you find signs of instability such as collapsing, cracking, and recent slide activity. Avalanche Danger We have insufficient data to rate the avalanche danger in the Steamboat Zone. The most problematic areas are probably steep northwest, north, northeast, and east facing slopes that have weak faceted snow under new snow and recently formed wind slabs. Expect cross-loading and soft slabs on most high elevation slopes. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [57]caic@qwest.net. Vail ==== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, avalanche paths, collapse , cross loaded, denser, facets, high pressure, lee , slab, slabs, wind slab, wind-loaded, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 12/23/2007 4:09:31 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clouds and cold snow with little accumulations in store for the rest of Sunday. High pressure is building in behind todays storm, but it will be short lived. First we must get through another windy night along the Continental Divide and Front Ranges in the north and central mountains as well as the higher ridges of the north San Juan. Monday looks to dawn mostly clear and cold with gradually building clouds, and possibly some late day snowshowers from about I-70 and north Monday afternoon. The next system rolls in Monday night and once again favors the north and central zones with the north side of the San Juan also in the possible list. Look for drying again on Tuesday and then another storm for Wednesday. We seem to be in the flow for awhile. Anyone out there celebrating a birthday today probably had good riding conditions, but it might have been tough to stay warm. Sure beats hot dry and dusty like early November. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) -2 to 3 18-23 2-7 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 G40+ 18-28 G40+ 15-25 G 40s Wind Direction NW WNW W Sky Cover Decreasing Increasing Overcast Snow(in) 0-2 0-1 2-4 Snowpack Discussion It seems like the winter solstice has been dealing cold, wind and snow, just what we should expect for the last week of 2007. The game is becoming a lot more complex too. October snows changed to sugar on the high elevation northerly aspects. The late November and early December storms deposited snow with a high water content, which in a wonderful life would make for a solid base allowing us to concentrate on what each new storm does to the upper layers of the snowpack. On the southeast to west aspects this probably still holds true for the moment. But at this time of year, clear nights and cold temperatures are working to change that solid snowpack to something a little less pleasant. This changing snowpack in general holds true across all aspects and elevations. Our snowpack has started to change to one that will become a little less strong and less resistant to collapse and failure if the current trend continues. This is Colorado, and that is what we can expect. We have also had some pretty impressive hard slab development over the past couple of windy weeks across the Front Range zone. The harder and denser snow is a little more resistant to rotting away to sugar, especially as it continues to build after each layer of new snow re-deposits. With this developing scenario we are forecasting a continued threat of deep slab instability for one of the two current concerns. This is our second concern, with the winds and new snow, fresh slab will continue to build on lee and cross loaded aspects even below treeline. We've had a couple observations Sunday telling of fresh though shallow soft slab build-up on lee aspects near and below treeline developing from the current north and west winds. A report from just at treeline today in Summit County had soft slabs breaking to the ground on south aspects. Due to less than ideal weather conditions observations have been nil above treeline. Not a surprise, as wind chills would be pretty rough on exposed ears and noses. Not to mention the difficulty in sensing the increasing threat of larger fresh wind slab above treeline. Only people with a birthday were likely venturing much above treeline. If the current trend of cold clear nights continues following regular storm cycles, our avalanche paths will fill in with a lot of snow, which would quickly change to facets, meaning we could see some large avalanches in the future, capable of running some long distances. This is something we will have to watch closely. Stay warm Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Vail Summit zone is CONSIDERABLE on north through east through south aspects above treeline and on north through south-east aspects at treeline. Unstable slabs are probable on steep, wind-loaded terrain. The danger is MODERATE on other aspects above treeline and at treeline, where windslabs are possible on steep slopes. The danger is LOW below treeline but don't be surprised to find pockets of MODERATE on lee aspects, mainly N-SE.