Aspen ===== Current Keywords: HIGH, avalanche danger, high pressure, human triggered, natural, weak layers, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Avalanche Warning in Effect through 1/8/2008 6:00:00 PM Forecast Issued on 1/7/2008 7:17:33 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Radar and satellite are both indicating some light snow across the state. The main energy has been passing just south of CO this morning. High pressure is just to our west, drying can be seen just west of Colorado and we should see that near sunset Monday. With the clearing skies will come some cold overnight low temperatures. Winds tonight will pick up a little along and east of the Divide Monday night, but nothing extraordinary. On Tuesday we will be under weak high pressure, could see mostly clear skies near sunrise Tuesday but look for increasing high clouds during the day. By Wednesday near sunrise we should start seeing snowfall in the central and southern zones. This system looks to clear out fairly quick. Snowfall favors the southern and central zones initially, and by sunset the flow will veer northwest and snowfall will shift to the northern mountains Wednesday afternoon and night. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 12-17 -3 to 2 17-22 Wind Speed(mph) 8-18G 30 12-22G 30 10-20G 30 Wind Direction SW->NW WNW W Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 6-8 3-5 0 Snowpack Discussion Upwards of another 10 inches of new snow from the Aspen zone last 24 hours. Winds have decreased this morning, but thats only part of the story. We have gotten lots of avalanche activity reports. So many in fact I am having a hard time keeping up on all of it. Observers are reporting a tender and reactive snowpack. People coming out of huts are reporting that they are watching natural activity as they try to get back to their cars. Snow workers are reporting a reactive snowpack even in areas they have been hammering for awhile. For me, this says I would rather not be in the backcountry. You will get a lot more bang for your buck at the areas. We expect that new snow, moderate winds and multiple weak layers in the snowpack will continue to create avalanches on a variety of aspects and elevations. Some of the avalanches could be large events, failing at the base of the snowpack. Slopes facing N-NE-E-SE have gained the greatest new load and have the potential for the largest avalanches at this time. Winds are forecast to shift to the NW later today, and that will load more aspects. The avalanche danger is HIGH on all aspects near and above treeline where natural and human triggered slides are likely. You need to avoid travel onto or underneath steep, wind loaded slopes. We extended the avalanche warning to the Aspen zone, and next door in the Gunnison zone we are putting out some areas of Extreme. Have not done that in a while. Avalanche Danger The avalanche warning has been extended to include the Aspen zone. The avalanche danger is HIGH on all aspects and elevations where natural and human triggered slides are likely. Can not tell you all how much we appreciate your obs, thanx Front Range =========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, cross loaded, drifts, high pressure, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, paths, snow pit, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/7/2008 7:49:05 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Radar and satellite are both indicating some light snow across the state. The main energy has been passing just south of CO this morning. High pressure is just to our west, drying can be seen just west of Colorado and we should see that near sunset Monday. With the clearing skies will come some cold overnight low temperatures. Winds tonight will pick up a little along and east of the Divide Monday night, but nothing extraordinary. On Tuesday we will be under weak high pressure, could see mostly clear skies near sunrise Tuesday but look for increasing high clouds during the day. By Wednesday near sunrise we should start seeing snowfall in the central and southern zones. This system looks to clear out fairly quick. Snowfall favors the southern and central zones initially, and by sunset the flow will veer northwest and snowfall will shift to the northern mountains Wednesday afternoon and night. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 8-13 -6 to -1 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 G 30 15-25 G 40 12-22 G 30 Wind Direction S->N N->W WSW Sky Cover Overcast Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 2-4 1-3 0 Snowpack Discussion Another 7.5 inches of new snow at Winter Park. Early morning winds have decreased, but over the last 24 hours they have been plenty strong enough to move snow. It is complicated in the backcountry snowpack. Snow instability tests may hint at stability, but that is not our only tool for forecasting. Look closely at what recent winds have been doing. Look at the area you want to ride. Where is the snow moving to, or away from? What does the snow surfce look like? Has there been recent activity? Digging a snow pit may provide valuable stability information for a small area, but it likely will not be representative of the snowpack just a short distance away due to large spatial instability. Many of the recent human triggered slides have run after the person has gotten a short distance down slope. Think of the consequences of where you might end up. Do you have good well thought out escape paths? First hand observations have described activity as It was like a bomb went off and the slide was ripping down slope. Can you outride that? Additional light snowfall and continued strong winds from the west-southwest are expected to create fresh drifts on north through southeast aspects. This is going to add weight to the snow. And if you add your own weight, it may be enough to tip the balance where snow pack strength can no longer hold the load. Human triggered slides remain possible to probable. It is time to reign it in a bit. Avalanche Danger The danger is CONSIDERABLE on N-NE-E-SE-S aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable on slopes with windslabs, drifts, or pillows. There are pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger on cross loaded terrain features on SW-W-NW aspects near and above treeline. Below treeline the danger is MODERATE. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, HIGH, avalanche danger, drifting, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, weak layer, whumpfing, wind drifted, wind-loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 1/7/2008 6:55:09 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Radar and satellite are both indicating some light snow across the state. The main energy has been passing just south of CO this morning. High pressure is just to our west, drying can be seen just west of Colorado and we should see that near sunset Monday. With the clearing skies will come some cold overnight low temperatures. Winds tonight will pick up a little along and east of the Divide Monday night, but nothing extraordinary. On Tuesday we will be under weak high pressure, could see mostly clear skies near sunrise Tuesday but look for increasing high clouds during the day. By Wednesday near sunrise we should start seeing snowfall in the central and southern zones. This system looks to clear out fairly quick. Snowfall favors the southern and central zones initially, and by sunset the flow will veer northwest and snowfall will shift to the northern mountains Wednesday afternoon and night. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 15-20 3-8 21-26 Wind Speed(mph) 3-13 G 20 2-12 2-12 Wind Direction SW W WSW Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 6-8 1-3 0-2 Snowpack Discussion Our observer estimated that Grand Mesa received about 18" of snow since Saturday morning with significant blowing and drifting. Southwest winds are moving large amounts of snow onto lee northwest through northeast to southeast aspects. The new load is falling on a classic Colorado strong over weak layering in the snowpack. The new storm and wind drifted snow could react to the weight of a backcountry traveler. Avalanche mitigation efforts along Highway 65 generated large slides on north facing aspects. With another night of snow and wind in the forecast, the probability of human triggered avalanches remains probable on all aspects and elevations. While traveling in the backcountry, stay alert for signs of instability such as recent slide activity, cracking, and whumpfing sounds. You will need to stay away from steep, wind-loaded slopes to avoid being caught in an avalanche. Areas such as Crag Crest should be avoided Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Grand Mesa zone is HIGH on N-E-SE aspects, CONSIDERABLE on all other aspects and elevations. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: HIGH, avalanche danger, avalanche hazard, avalanche paths, dense, drifts, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, natural avalanches, paths, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Avalanche Warning in Effect through 1/7/2008 6:00:00 PM Forecast Issued on 1/7/2008 6:21:46 AM Forecaster: Mark Rikkers Weather Synopsis Radar and satellite are both indicating some light snow across the state. The main energy has been passing just south of CO this morning. High pressure is just to our west, drying can be seen just west of Colorado and we should see that near sunset Monday. With the clearing skies will come some cold overnight low temperatures. Winds tonight will pick up a little along and east of the Divide Monday night, but nothing extraordinary. On Tuesday we will be under weak high pressure, could see mostly clear skies near sunrise Tuesday but look for increasing high clouds during the day. By Wednesday near sunrise we should start seeing snowfall in the central and southern zones. This system looks to clear out fairly quick. Snowfall favors the southern and central zones initially, and by sunset the flow will veer northwest and snowfall will shift to the northern mountains Wednesday afternoon and night. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 13-18 -3-2 20-25 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25G40 12-22G30 10-20G30 Wind Direction S->NW W SW Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 9-11 3-5 0 Snowpack Discussion Storm total numbers are still accumulating and between two and three feet of snow has fallen onto much of the Northern San Juan zone so far. Observers are reporting relatively dense snow with approximately three inches of water content and counting. Strong southwest winds continued overnight that have been loading avalanche paths and creating large drifts on north through southeast aspects. Crews on all avalanche-prone highway passes and county roads report numerous natural avalanches and impressive results from the mitigation work that has been completed. Slide paths from all elevations and aspects have run, including locations that rarely slide. Large avalanches with debris up to 16' deep across roads have been reported. Though visibility has been spotty, observers have noted that near and above treeline there are many areas that are scoured to ground while other areas are heavily loaded. With additional snowfall in the forecast and continued strong winds that will start trending toward the northwest today, we are keeping the avalanche danger at HIGH on all aspects and elevations. An avalanche warning remains in effect into Monday evening. We recommend that you limit travel in the backcountry to areas that are not exposed to any avalanche hazard. Consider visiting your local ski area where safe, soft turns are awaiting. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Northern San Juan zone is HIGH on all aspects and elevations. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely. An avalanche warning remains in effect into Monday evening. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: HIGH, avalanche danger, cross-loaded, high pressure, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, leeward , natural, paths, windward, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Avalanche Warning in Effect through 1/7/2008 6:00:00 PM Forecast Issued on 1/7/2008 6:56:59 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Radar and satellite are both indicating some light snow across the state. The main energy has been passing just south of CO this morning. High pressure is just to our west, drying can be seen just west of Colorado and we should see that near sunset Monday. With the clearing skies will come some cold overnight low temperatures. Winds tonight will pick up a little along and east of the Divide Monday night, but nothing extraordinary. On Tuesday we will be under weak high pressure, could see mostly clear skies near sunrise Tuesday but look for increasing high clouds during the day. By Wednesday near sunrise we should start seeing snowfall in the central and southern zones. This system looks to clear out fairly quick. Snowfall favors the southern and central zones initially, and by sunset the flow will veer northwest and snowfall will shift to the northern mountains Wednesday afternoon and night. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 20-25 0-5 24-29 Wind Speed(mph) 12-22G 30 12-22G 30 5-15G 20 Wind Direction SW WSW SW Sky Cover Overcast Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 12-16 1-3 0 Snowpack Discussion Early obs from Wolf Creek Pass indicate all paths with names have crossed Highway 160. Wolf Creek, Molas and Lizard Head Passes have had large amounts of natural activity. Lime Creek is filled with avalanche debris. As best observers can tell, most activity has involved the new snow only, but again, difficult to tell with the poor visibility and lack of ability to get anywhere with the closed roads. Our observer in Silverton got a brief glimpse above treeline on Kendall Mountain. High windward aspects were stripped of snow while leeward aspects and cross-loaded gullies were very heavily loaded. He said that he would not go anywhere in the backcountry on his skis right now. With additional snowfall in the forecast and continued strong southwest winds, we are keeping the avalanche danger at HIGH on all aspects and elevations where natural and human triggered slides are likely. An avalanche warning remains in effect into Monday evening. We recommend that you do not travel in the backcountry at this time. Consider visiting your local ski area where safer and plentiful powder turns are awaiting. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is HIGH on all aspects and elevations. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely. An avalanche warning remains in effect into Monday evening. Do not travel onto or underneath steep terrain. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: avalanche danger, high pressure, whumpfing, wind drifted, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 1/7/2008 6:57:27 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Radar and satellite are both indicating some light snow across the state. The main energy has been passing just south of CO this morning. High pressure is just to our west, drying can be seen just west of Colorado and we should see that near sunset Monday. With the clearing skies will come some cold overnight low temperatures. Winds tonight will pick up a little along and east of the Divide Monday night, but nothing extraordinary. On Tuesday we will be under weak high pressure, could see mostly clear skies near sunrise Tuesday but look for increasing high clouds during the day. By Wednesday near sunrise we should start seeing snowfall in the central and southern zones. This system looks to clear out fairly quick. Snowfall favors the southern and central zones initially, and by sunset the flow will veer northwest and snowfall will shift to the northern mountains Wednesday afternoon and night. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 12-17 0-5 19-24 Wind Speed(mph) 8-18 9-19 13-23 Wind Direction WSW WNW WNW Sky Cover Overcast Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 3-5 1-3 0 Snowpack Discussion The current winter storm is having less effect on the Sangre zone. Nonetheless, light snow with strong southwest winds is expected. The new snow load will fall onto wind drifted slopes with northeast, east, and southeast aspects. Evaluate the snowpack frequently and look for obvious signs of instability including whumpfing, cracking, or recent avalanching. Avalanche Danger We have insufficient data to rate the avalanche danger in the Sangre de Cristo Zone. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, HIGH, avalanche danger, collapses, collapsing,, crossloaded, crown, drifts, facets, high pressure, human triggered, slabs, snow pit, whumpfing, wind loaded, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/7/2008 7:00:45 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Radar and satellite are both indicating some light snow across the state. The main energy has been passing just south of CO this morning. High pressure is just to our west, drying can be seen just west of Colorado and we should see that near sunset Monday. With the clearing skies will come some cold overnight low temperatures. Winds tonight will pick up a little along and east of the Divide Monday night, but nothing extraordinary. On Tuesday we will be under weak high pressure, could see mostly clear skies near sunrise Tuesday but look for increasing high clouds during the day. By Wednesday near sunrise we should start seeing snowfall in the central and southern zones. This system looks to clear out fairly quick. Snowfall favors the southern and central zones initially, and by sunset the flow will veer northwest and snowfall will shift to the northern mountains Wednesday afternoon and night. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 13-18 -4-1 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 11-21G 30 15-25G 40 15-25G 40 Wind Direction W WNW WNW Sky Cover Overcast Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 7-9 1-3 0-2 Snowpack Discussion Heavier snow was reported over the southern portion of the Sawatch zone. Close to two feet of heavy snow has fallen on Monarch Pass since Saturday morning. Our observer in the Buffalo Peaks wilderness area noted about 10-12" of new snow. Below treeline, he was feeling very large collapses. On Sunday, a snowmobiler was caught and injured in a slide just east of Cottonwood Pass. The slide was described as large with a 2-3' crown. Early reports indicate the rider and machine were swept close to 90 feet off the road. Some broken bones were reported. At times, gusty west-southwest winds have been quite strong. Observers continue to remark about how complicated the snow pack is especially near and just above treeline where a variety of storm snow and wind slabs sit on top of a weaker base layer of facets. Digging a snow pit may provide valuable stability information for a small area, but it likely will not be representative of the snowpack just a short distance away due to large spatial instability. As you travel, you need to constantly reevaluate the snow you are riding on. Watch for changes underfoot such as cracking, collapsing, and whumpfing sounds, all signs of local instability. Be especially careful of supportable wind slabs up high on steep slopes. These might fool you into thinking that a slope is safe, but as you travel downhill the snow surface becomes weaker where you could trigger an avalanche. Additional snowfall and continued strong winds from the west-southwest are expected to create fresh drifts on north through southeast aspects. This is going to add more weight to the snow. And if you add your own weight, it may be enough to tip the balance where snow pack strength can no longer hold the load. Human triggered slides remain possible to probable. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Sawatch Zone is HIGH near and above treeline on wind loaded and crossloaded slopes facing north, northeast, east, and southeast. Elsewhere, the danger is CONSIDERABLE. Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, high pressure, human triggered, weak layer, weak layers, whumpfing, wind drifted, wind drifts, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/7/2008 6:19:05 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Radar and satellite are both indicating some light snow across the state. The main energy has been passing just south of CO this morning. High pressure is just to our west, drying can be seen just west of Colorado and we should see that near sunset Monday. With the clearing skies will come some cold overnight low temperatures. Winds tonight will pick up a little along and east of the Divide Monday night, but nothing extraordinary. On Tuesday we will be under weak high pressure, could see mostly clear skies near sunrise Tuesday but look for increasing high clouds during the day. By Wednesday near sunrise we should start seeing snowfall in the central and southern zones. This system looks to clear out fairly quick. Snowfall favors the southern and central zones initially, and by sunset the flow will veer northwest and snowfall will shift to the northern mountains Wednesday afternoon and night. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 14-19 -2-3 19-24 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 G 20 10-20 12-22G30 Wind Direction S->NW N->W WSW Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 7-9 2-4 0 Snowpack Discussion Winter has returned to the Steamboat zone, and you need to be thinking about winter-time avalanche conditions. The wind is likely creating fresh wind drifts on north through southeast aspects. The newly fallen and wind drifted snow is piling up on a recently developed weak layer of surface snow. It will be critical to watch for a point where new snow overwhelms the strength of the older underlying snow. This can be tricky as the onset can be rapid. Watch for new avalanche activity, cracking and whumpfing sounds. The other issue is buried weak layers deep down in the snowpack. These can be potentially more dangerous as they can involve the entire winter snowpack. Additional snow is in the forecast that may be enough additional weight to start affecting those layers, and the addition of humans could be the trigger. Human triggered slides remain probable. The most likely place for you to trigger a slide will be on steep, wind loaded slopes with north, northeast, east, and southeast aspects. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Steamboat Zone is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects and elevations. Human triggered slides are probable. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [57]caic@qwest.net. Vail ==== Current Keywords: MODERATE, avalanche danger, drifts, high pressure, human triggered, slabs, wind drifts, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 1/7/2008 6:29:19 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Radar and satellite are both indicating some light snow across the state. The main energy has been passing just south of CO this morning. High pressure is just to our west, drying can be seen just west of Colorado and we should see that near sunset Monday. With the clearing skies will come some cold overnight low temperatures. Winds tonight will pick up a little along and east of the Divide Monday night, but nothing extraordinary. On Tuesday we will be under weak high pressure, could see mostly clear skies near sunrise Tuesday but look for increasing high clouds during the day. By Wednesday near sunrise we should start seeing snowfall in the central and southern zones. This system looks to clear out fairly quick. Snowfall favors the southern and central zones initially, and by sunset the flow will veer northwest and snowfall will shift to the northern mountains Wednesday afternoon and night. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 11-16 -5 to 0 13-18 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 G 30 12-22G 30 12-22 Wind Direction SW->NW N->W WSW Sky Cover Overcast Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 2-4 1-3 0 Snowpack Discussion Another 9 inches at Vail and Breckenridge this morning, At times, gusty west-southwest winds have been moderate to strong last 24 hours. Snowpit data and instability tests may indicate a somewhat safe snowpack. The pit may not be in the right place. Instability tests are not the only decision tool we have to work with. Think about what recent weather has been doing. Its been windy, continued snowfall too. Look at the terrain you want to enter. Has it been getting wind loading or wind stripped? Evaluate the snow surface. Does it look FAT? Has there been recent activity in the area? Or activity previously this winter? What are the consequences of getting caught in a slide? What kind of terrain is it? Quite a few of the recent incidents put the rider a few turns down from the top before the slide released. One statement said... It was like an explosion and there was debris everywhere, trees moving through the slide....Backcountry travel in avalanche terrain is going to take good rational skills for a while. Be thinking avalanche, not just pow-pow. Additional light snowfall and continued strong winds from the west-southwest are expected to create fresh drifts on north through southeast aspects. This is going to add weight to the snow. And if you add your own weight, it may be enough to tip the balance where snow pack strength can no longer hold the load. Human triggered slides remain possible to probable. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Vail Summit Zone is CONSIDERABE near and above treeline on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects where new snow and strong winds have created fresh wind drifts and slabs. Other aspects and elevations are at MODERATE.