Aspen ===== Current Keywords: HIGH, avalanche danger, avalanche paths, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, natural, path, paths, powder , settle, weak layers, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 1/8/2008 7:13:52 AM Forecaster: Brian McCall Weather Synopsis Clearing skies this morning are giving way to high clouds moving over the state this afternoon. Our next storm moves in tonight near midnight. It will favor the north and central zones but also looks to hit the northern San Juans, just not as hard. It will last about 24 hours and then another brief period of high pressure moves in near midnight on Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet before sunrise Thursday. We are expecting some strong winds with this next system, so think about increasing avalanche danger over the next 24 to 36 hours. We remain in the storm track so it looks like at least a few more of these stacked up to our west. Stay tuned. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 18-23 12-17 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 14-24 G40 12-22 G30 15-25 G40 Wind Direction W WSW W Sky Cover Increasing Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 0 1-3 2-4 Snowpack Discussion An avalanche warning remains in effect for the Aspen Zone till 5pm today. More snow accumulating overnight and wind speeds forecasted to increase out of the W and NW will keep us at an overall HIGH danger. Natural avalanche activity will begin to taper off today, but human triggered avalanches remain likely. Some of the triggered slides could be large, full depth avalanches. Don't let the clearing skies lure you into unsafe terrain. Widespread avalanche activity has occurred around the Aspen Zone during the last couple days. It will take us quite a while to gather all these observations. Some of the more significant events include a large cycle on the Highlands Ridge. Most of the paths facing E, SE, and NE on the ridge from South Highlands Bowl, Five Fingers, and the K Chutes had avalanches in them. I got a good look at the avalanche reported in the S Kellogg path in Ashcroft yesterday. This one occurred on a SE aspect at about 12,600 ft and ran full track filling Castle Creek with snow. It was over 300 ft wide, destroying groves of aspen trees and breaking through 2ft thick ice on a small pond in the area. Thanks to Ashcroft Ski Touring for the help with this observation. Also observed in the Castle Creek Valley were numerous avalanches near and below treeline on the west facing aspects of Richmond Ridge. Near Snowmass, a large natural was observed on an E aspect of Garrett Peak. This one occurred near 12,000 ft and was over 600 ft wide. The snowpack is still tender and reactive and will stay that way for a few days. Think about the consequences of your route selection. It's a long winter. Stay safe and enjoy it. More snow overnight has added another 7-10" to the tail end of this storm. Storm totals are now in the 25-50" range depending on location around the zone. Areas in Schofield, Marble, and around McClure Pass picked up the higher end of these snow totals. This snow has added a significant load to several weak layers in the snowpack. Some of the avalanches reported have failed just below all this new snow. The larger avalanches observed have failed in older layers near the base of the snowpack. Winds were light overnight but are forecasted to increase again out of the W and NW. This increase in wind speed means more loading on an already tender snowpack. Avalanche Danger Avalanche danger in the Aspen Zone is an overall HIGH. Both natural and human triggered avalanches remain likely. You can expect avalanches on a variety of aspects, elevations, and slope angles. Reel in that powder fever for a few more days till things settle down. Safest areas to travel right now are low angle slopes well away from steeper terrain. Be very aware of the bigger slopes, even if they are thousands of feet above your location. Valley bottoms near the run outs of large avalanche paths are not the place for a picnic today. Thanks to everyone who has submitted observations in the last few days. These are a huge help to the forecasts. Any avalanche, weather, or snowpack information can be e-mailed to us at caic@qwest.net. Front Range =========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross loaded, drifts, high pressure, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, paths, slab, snow pit, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/8/2008 11:10:00 AM Forecaster: Ethan Greene Weather Synopsis Clearing skies this morning are giving way to high clouds moving over the state this afternoon. Our next storm moves in tonight near midnight. It will favor the north and central zones but also looks to hit the northern San Juans, just not as hard. It will last about 24 hours and then another brief period of high pressure moves in near midnight on Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet before sunrise Thursday. We are expecting some strong winds with this next system, so think about increasing avalanche danger over the next 24 to 36 hours. We remain in the storm track so it looks like at least a few more of these stacked up to our west. Stay tuned. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 15-20 10-15 17-22 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 G50 18-28 G 40 25-35 G 50 Wind Direction WNW W W Sky Cover Increasing Mostly Cloudy Overcast Snow(in) 0 Tr-3 1-3 Snowpack Discussion Winds are ramping up Tuesday morning along and east of the Front Range zone. Expect to see increasing avalanche danger as fresh hard and soft slab develop on the easterly aspects and cross loaded south aspects, mainly near and above treeline. With the increasing winds do not be surprised to see slab development well below treeline too. Snow instability tests may hint at stability, but that is not our only tool for forecasting. Look closely at what recent winds have been doing. Look at the area you want to ride. Where is the snow moving to, or away from? What does the snow surfce look like? Has there been recent activity? Digging a snow pit may provide valuable stability information for a small area, but it likely will not be representative of the snowpack just a short distance away due to large spatial instability. Many of the recent human triggered slides have run after the person has gotten a short distance down slope, or have been triggered from further down slope, a classic early season Colorado problem. As always, think of the consequences of where you might end up. Do you have good well thought out escape paths? First hand observations have described activity as.... It was like a bomb went off and the slide was ripping down slope.... Can you outride that? Always have good escape routes and be prepared to use them quickly. It has been a very busy few days. With all the activity we can assume that avalanche activity triggered by humans remains probable in the Front Range zone. Avalanche Danger The danger is CONSIDERABLE on N-NE-E-SE-S aspects all elevations. Human triggered avalanches are probable on slopes with windslabs, drifts, or pillows. There are pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger on cross loaded terrain features on SW-W-NW aspects near and above treeline. Below treeline the danger is MODERATE on SW-W-NW aspects. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: MODERATE, avalanche danger, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, natural, settle, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 1/8/2008 4:18:42 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clearing skies this morning are giving way to high clouds moving over the state this afternoon. Our next storm moves in tonight near midnight. It will favor the north and central zones but also looks to hit the northern San Juans, just not as hard. It will last about 24 hours and then another brief period of high pressure moves in near midnight on Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet before sunrise Thursday. We are expecting some strong winds with this next system, so think about increasing avalanche danger over the next 24 to 36 hours. We remain in the storm track so it looks like at least a few more of these stacked up to our west. Stay tuned. Weather Tuesday Night Wednesday Wednesday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 23-28 7-12 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 G20 10-20 G30 5-15 G20 Wind Direction SSW WSW W Sky Cover Increasing Overcast Decreasing Snow(in) 0-2 3-5 2-4 Snowpack Discussion The snowpack across the Grand Mesa had a chance to settle and gain some strength this afternoon. We will lower the danger a bit more this afternoon. It has been awhile since we have gotten observations from the Mesa but we suspect that natural activity has all but ended. Human triggered avalanches will still be possible, especially in terrain 35 degrees and steeper. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Grand Mesa zone is MODERATE on all aspects and elevations. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: HIGH, avalanche danger, collapsed , crown, high pressure, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, natural avalanches, naturally, path, paths, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 1/8/2008 6:52:20 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clearing skies this morning are giving way to high clouds moving over the state this afternoon. Our next storm moves in tonight near midnight. It will favor the north and central zones but also looks to hit the northern San Juans, just not as hard. It will last about 24 hours and then another brief period of high pressure moves in near midnight on Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet before sunrise Thursday. We are expecting some strong winds with this next system, so think about increasing avalanche danger over the next 24 to 36 hours. We remain in the storm track so it looks like at least a few more of these stacked up to our west. Stay tuned. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 15-20 12-17 10-15 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G40 12-22 G30 15-25 G40 Wind Direction WNW WSW W Sky Cover Increasing Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 0 1-3 2-4 Snowpack Discussion Monday afternoon a woman was buried in Minehaha Gulch on a SSW aspect just below treeline on a very sparsely treed slope. She was buried 2-3 feet. Fortunately there was another party close by and they raced to the scene. The woman made a good air pocket, which collapsed as rescuers worked to dig her out. She was only buried for about 4 minutes. Sounds like no injuries and was able to exit on her own power. The crown was 1-3 feet deep, 150 feet wide, and about 400 vertical. There was another report of a human triggered slide next to the Fairview path on Colorado highway 110 up Cement Creek, the Fairview ran naturally, probably 24-36 hours prior to the triggered event, but no details on that one. Suffice it to say there have been a lot avalanches running, naturally and triggered. Signs of recent avalanche activity are thee best clue we have to determine avalanche probability. Since we've got avalanche activity in spades, its safe to safe avalanche activity remains likely. Take that however you want. If the warning does not cover it, the debris will Crews on all avalanche-prone highway passes and county roads report numerous natural avalanches and impressive results from the mitigation work that has been completed. One shot placement triggered a large sympathetic avalanche a long distance away. Slide paths from all elevations and aspects have run, including locations that rarely slide. Large avalanches with debris up to 16' deep across roads have been reported. We will continue the avalanche warning through today. I will likely drop it this afternoon. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Northern San Juan zone is HIGH on all aspects and elevations. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely. An avalanche warning remains in effect into Tuesday evening. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, high pressure, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, lee , settle, slab, slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 1/8/2008 4:32:22 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clearing skies this morning are giving way to high clouds moving over the state this afternoon. Our next storm moves in tonight near midnight. It will favor the north and central zones but also looks to hit the northern San Juans, just not as hard. It will last about 24 hours and then another brief period of high pressure moves in near midnight on Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet before sunrise Thursday. We are expecting some strong winds with this next system, so think about increasing avalanche danger over the next 24 to 36 hours. We remain in the storm track so it looks like at least a few more of these stacked up to our west. Stay tuned. Weather Tuesday Night Wednesday Wednesday Night Temperature(°F) 12-17 12-17 2-7 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 G30 12-22 G40 10-20 G30 Wind Direction SW SW SW Sky Cover Increasing Overcast Decreasing Snow(in) 0-2 Tr-3 Tr-2 Snowpack Discussion Highway crews should have Wolf Creek Pass and the Molas Coal Bank corridors open soon if they are not already. Today the weather was cooperative for work crews and in aiding in the snowpack being able to settle and gain some strength. We have dropped the warning, and we are dropping the danger scale as well. Natural avalanches will be possible, and human triggered slides will be probable. A couple things to watch for. Winds from the west to southwest the next few days will be strong enough to move snow onto lee slopes, so fresh shallow slabs will be building. If you get a slide started it could dig into some of the older layers. So pay attention to terrain traps. With all the new snow it will be tempting to push the bigger terrain. It is a good idea to slowly work your way into this as that is a good way to get a feel for how the snowpack is going to behave. A new storm is brewing to our west. It does not look to be a big producer for the southern San Juan, but it is always good to watch how and where the new snow goes. If winds are stronger than forecast, slab depth could increase quickly, there is plenty of snow to move around. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects and elevations. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: avalanche danger, high pressure, slab, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 1/8/2008 4:21:47 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clearing skies this morning are giving way to high clouds moving over the state this afternoon. Our next storm moves in tonight near midnight. It will favor the north and central zones but also looks to hit the northern San Juans, just not as hard. It will last about 24 hours and then another brief period of high pressure moves in near midnight on Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet before sunrise Thursday. We are expecting some strong winds with this next system, so think about increasing avalanche danger over the next 24 to 36 hours. We remain in the storm track so it looks like at least a few more of these stacked up to our west. Stay tuned. Weather Tuesday Night Wednesday Wednesday Night Temperature(°F) 9-14 16-21 1-6 Wind Speed(mph) 16-26 16-26 17-27 Wind Direction WSW W WNW Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-1 0-2 0-2 Snowpack Discussion The current winter storm is having less effect on the Sangre zone. We have gotten in touch with a potential observer in Westcliffe, so hoping to get a few more observations from this zone soon. For now, the Sangres have not gotten the snow that other zones have. They have likely gotten the wind so shallow slab development could be expected Avalanche Danger We have insufficient data to rate the avalanche danger in the Sangre de Cristo Zone. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, HIGH, avalanche danger, crossloaded, crust, facets, high pressure, natural avalanche, path, slab, slabs, starting zone, sugar snow, weak layer, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/8/2008 4:23:54 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clearing skies this morning are giving way to high clouds moving over the state this afternoon. Our next storm moves in tonight near midnight. It will favor the north and central zones but also looks to hit the northern San Juans, just not as hard. It will last about 24 hours and then another brief period of high pressure moves in near midnight on Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet before sunrise Thursday. We are expecting some strong winds with this next system, so think about increasing avalanche danger over the next 24 to 36 hours. We remain in the storm track so it looks like at least a few more of these stacked up to our west. Stay tuned. Weather Tuesday Night Wednesday Wednesday Night Temperature(°F) 3-8 15-20 -2-3 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 G50 20-30 G60 20-30 G60 Wind Direction WNW WNW WNW Sky Cover Increasing Overcast Decreasing Snow(in) 0-1 3-5 3-5 Snowpack Discussion The Sawatch Zone has received close to two feet of snow over the last two days. Winds have also been quite breezy at times. Although winds have been primarily from the west, they at times have come from the north east, south east and north west. Loading patterns will be inconsistent. New and loaded snow has fallen on a variety of snow surfaces too. On northerly and easterly aspects, it has fallen on both soft and hard slab surfaces. Hard slabs can give you a false sence of security. The problem with hard slabs is that although they can support a fair bit of weight in thick areas, they tend to break easily and propagate far very quickly. Yesterday in the Cottonwood Pass area Brad went in to investigate the natural avalanche that injured a snowmobiler on Sunday. The slide ran over 1,200' on a south aspect. The fracture line was nearly 400' wide and 2-5 feet deep. The path has run in previous years but was hidden well due to several stands of aspen trees that have now lost the fight once again. The culprit was a buried sun crust that had small grained sugar snow above and large sized grains below. Sugar snow, or facets, are a very persistent grain type, meaning they will be there for the rest of the winter. Layers of both soft and hard slabs sat above the sun crust/weak layer sandwich. As we have been noting for a while. the snowpack is a bit complicated and is only a small part of the current avalanche picture. The weather over the past two to three weeks has also been a big player. Backcountry users need to carefully evaluate terrain and what the weather has done. Be suspicious of convex rolls on terrain 30 degrees and steeper. If you see rock bands and vegetation sticking out of the snow surface below the suspected starting zone be thinking deep slab instability. Fresh avalanche activity is bulls-eye information. If avalanches have been running, expect to find instabilities on similar aspects and elevations. Snowpit data and stability tests may give you false stable signs. So look at the big picture and always think about the consequences of getting caught. Being caught in an avalanche can really ruin your day if not worse. If you are traveling through avalanche terrain on foot or machine, be aware of what both above and below you and your party. If the terrain is capable of sliding, spread your party out. Avalanche danger has been on a steady increase recently. If you venture into the backcountry, it really is okay to just look and feel lucky to just be out there instead of pushing the limit. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Sawatch Zone is HIGH above and near treeline on wind loaded and crossloaded slopes facing north, northeast, east, southeast to south. Elsewhere, the danger is CONSIDERABLE. Please let us now if you saw any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Email us at caic@qwest.net. Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, high pressure, lee , slab, slabs, weak layer, weak layers, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/8/2008 4:07:50 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Clearing skies this morning are giving way to high clouds moving over the state this afternoon. Our next storm moves in tonight near midnight. It will favor the north and central zones but also looks to hit the northern San Juans, just not as hard. It will last about 24 hours and then another brief period of high pressure moves in near midnight on Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet before sunrise Thursday. We are expecting some strong winds with this next system, so think about increasing avalanche danger over the next 24 to 36 hours. We remain in the storm track so it looks like at least a few more of these stacked up to our west. Stay tuned. Weather Tuesday Night Wednesday Wednesday Night Temperature(°F) 4-9 18-23 3-8 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 G40 15-25 G40 12-22 G30 Wind Direction WSW WSW WNW Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 2-4 5-7 2-4 Snowpack Discussion A brief lull in the winter onslaught today. No new obs for a few days, I suspect people have been out and about, so if you have seen anything, please feel free to send us the news. Expect to find some fresh shallow slab on the lee aspects to recent southwest winds. The other issue is buried weak layers deep down in the snowpack. These can be potentially more dangerous as they can involve the entire winter snowpack. They may be a little harder to trigger, and could come on backcountry terrain that has had some traffic thru the winter. Mostly this problem will involve hard slabs, so above and at treeline in the typical windy areas. Snowpits may not find a defined weak layer, so also look at the terrain, and the snow surface. Are there convex rolls with hard snow at the surface? Cornices? Are there nasty terrain features with perhaps exposed rock bands or small trees sticking through the snow? Think about consequences to go along with all your other decision processes. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Steamboat Zone is CONSIDERABLE on N-E-S aspect near and above Treeline. It is MODERATE elsewhere. Human triggered slides are probable especially on terrain over 35 degrees. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [57]caic@qwest.net. Vail ==== Current Keywords: MODERATE, avalanche danger, control work, dense, density, explosive, facets, high pressure, human triggered, natural, natural avalanche, powder. , slab, slabs, weak layers, wind drifts, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 1/8/2008 6:27:39 AM Forecaster: Brad Sawtell Weather Synopsis Clearing skies this morning are giving way to high clouds moving over the state this afternoon. Our next storm moves in tonight near midnight. It will favor the north and central zones but also looks to hit the northern San Juans, just not as hard. It will last about 24 hours and then another brief period of high pressure moves in near midnight on Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet before sunrise Thursday. We are expecting some strong winds with this next system, so think about increasing avalanche danger over the next 24 to 36 hours. We remain in the storm track so it looks like at least a few more of these stacked up to our west. Stay tuned. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 15-20 15-20 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 18-28 G40 15-25 G40 20-30 G50 Wind Direction W W W Sky Cover Increasing Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 Tr-3 2-4 Snowpack Discussion Avalanche activity continues to occur especially from explosive control work. Additionally, we continue to hear about rider triggered and some natural activity. It seems that the brunt of the activity is occurring both slightly below to well above treeline on south east through west west aspects, although the north west face of Ptarmigan Peak, near Vail Pass was triggered by a group of skiers two days ago. There was also a very close call with a natural avalanche hitting a snowmobiler while on trail in the Vail Pass area. The slide occured well below treeline on a south aspect. Winds began to pick up steam around midnight, last night, loading snow on north east through south east and south aspects at and above treeline. Snow has loaded on surface facets and or low density new snow. Anticipate the loaded snow not bonding to well to yesterdays surface layer. Snowpit data and stability tests may indicate a somewhat safe snowpack. However, buried hard slabs can often hint at false stables. If you can feel a dense hard layer below the surface, i.e. hard slab, make sure you touch the snow below it as the strength of the slab is related to how weak the snow is below it. Fortunately, snow stability tests are not the only decision tool we have to work with. Think about the weather history over the past two weeks; breezy, cold, then warm combined with continual snow and more winds. Pay close attention to the slopes you plan on riding. Measure the angle as opposed to guessing the angle. It's really difficult to get caught in an avalanche if you are not on or below a steep slope. Look around to see if there are any signs of recent avalanche activity. See the foot print of an avalanche is the best clue, so please pay attention to recent activity. We have entered the time of the snow season where triggering a surface slab avalanche doe have the ability of stepping down to deeper weak layers. Triggering a slab avalanche could turn into a large sized slkide and definately ruin your day if not worse. Backcountry travel in avalanche terrain is going to require good rational skills for days if not weeks to come. Think avalanche, not just powder. Snow always looks good. If you find yourself saying or thinking that, stop and look around. Seek additional information. Avalanches do not care about how good you are, how big your smile is and especially if you are a local. Human triggered slides will remain possible to probable. If the winds continue to materialize through today, expect the danger to rise at and above treeline on north east through east through south aspects on steep slopes that have been freshly loaded. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Vail Summit Zone is CONSIDERABE all elevations on NW-N-NE-E-SE-S aspects where new snow and strong winds have created fresh wind drifts and slabs. Other aspects and elevations are at MODERATE.