Aspen ===== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, Human triggered avalanches, MODERATE, avalanche cycle, avalanche danger, avalanche paths, collapses, cross loaded, crust, faceted, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, orographic, path, paths, settled, slab, slabs, snow pit, weak layers, wind loaded, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 1/12/2008 6:42:04 AM Forecaster: Brian McCall Weather Synopsis Northwest flow continues through Sunday. Clouds are breaking up and thinning out this afternoon. The main driver of the current weather is orographic lift. The thickest clouds will stick around favored areas like the Steamboat, the northern Front Range, and Vail Pass. Light snow may continue overnight. Some snow will sneak into the Aspen area and maybe over the ridge into the Gunnison zone. The San Juans get a break from the snow. Sunday morning a pulse of moister air blows in, briefly increasing snowfall in those favored areas. Snow will be over by mid-afternoon. A ridge moves over on Monday. The models do not agree on the details after Monday, but they do promise more unsettled, stormy weather Tuesday on. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. I'll include additional details in this afternoon's Vail Summit forecast, which will be updated around 5 pm. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 18 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least two people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. We're tired of keeping track of the incidents. Weather Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 0-5 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction NW NNW N Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-3 0-3 1-4 Snowpack Discussion Not much new snow out of the storm, but strong W and NW winds during the day yesterday took care of the increased loading for us. Light snow added up to about 2-5" around the zone in the last 24 hours. Winds really kicked up yesterday morning and continued till after sunset. Watch for fresh hard and soft slab formation on slopes near and above treeline facing N-NE-E-SE-S as well as some cross loaded pockets and terrain features on other aspects. These slabs may be quite sensitive to triggering today and do have the potential to step down into older weak layers in the snowpack. This most recent wind affected layer will be yet another concern in an already complicated and variable upper snowpack. This recently transported snow has added more of a load to our house of cards snowpack on those higher elevations easterly aspects. We are at the tail end of a large avalanche cycle around the Aspen zone. Avalanche danger is slowly decreasing but it's not time to dive into big terrain just yet. There are still plenty of places you can trigger an avalanche today and some of these may be big, nasty hard slabs. Travel will require a conservative approach. Stick with mellow terrain and be aware of both large avalanche paths and smaller terrain features. Pay attention to those clues the snowpack will give you. You will probably experience plenty of collapses and some shooting cracks in wind loaded areas today. Pay attention to these signs as the snowpack is trying to tell you something. Below yesterdays new wind slabs there are a few weak layers of concern. One is below our last big storm, and the other near the base of the snowpack. Human triggered avalanches are probable on these weaknesses and some triggered avalanches could be very large. Recent weather events have created a highly variable snowpack around the zone. Conditions vary quite a bit from one valley to the next and even within a short distance on one run. Don't base your decision to ride a slope on just one snow pit. Conditions are much to variable for limited observations. One other thought to consider in the snowpack. Over five weeks of stormy weather and very few sunny days have created an atypical snowpack on slopes facing SE, S, and SW. You can find a snowpack that looks more like shaded terrain. Layers of concern on these slopes right now are often slabs with faceted snow below them and not the typical settled snowpack with numerous crust layers. It has been a rare month for snowfall and weather in our area. Be on the look out for out of the ordinary conditions. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all slopes near and above treeline. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered ones probable. Be especially careful around wind loaded terrain near and above treeline on slopes facing N-NE-E-SE-S. Strong winds out of the W and NW during the day yesterday have transported lots of snow onto these aspects. Large paths that did not run during the last cycle are worrisome as well. Avalanche danger below treeline is an overall MODERATE. Human triggered avalanches are still possible here. Thanks to everyone who has submitted observations in the last few days. These are a huge help to the forecasts. Any avalanche, weather, or snowpack information can be e-mailed to us at caic@qwest.net. Front Range =========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross loaded, cross-loaded, faceted, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, lee , natural avalanche, natural avalanches, orographic, path, slab, slabs, weak layers, wind drifts, wind-loaded, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/12/2008 6:51:41 AM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Northwest flow continues through Sunday. Clouds are breaking up and thinning out this afternoon. The main driver of the current weather is orographic lift. The thickest clouds will stick around favored areas like the Steamboat, the northern Front Range, and Vail Pass. Light snow may continue overnight. Some snow will sneak into the Aspen area and maybe over the ridge into the Gunnison zone. The San Juans get a break from the snow. Sunday morning a pulse of moister air blows in, briefly increasing snowfall in those favored areas. Snow will be over by mid-afternoon. A ridge moves over on Monday. The models do not agree on the details after Monday, but they do promise more unsettled, stormy weather Tuesday on. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. I'll include additional details in this afternoon's Vail Summit forecast, which will be updated around 5 pm. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 18 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least two people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. We're tired of keeping track of the incidents. Weather Saturday Saturday Night Sunday Temperature(°F) 7-12 -2 to 3 10-15 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 G50 15-25 15-25 Wind Direction WNW WNW NW Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-4 0-2 1-4 Snowpack Discussion Yet another report of a human triggered avalanches on Berthoud Pass Friday afternoon. Two "kids," as an observer described them, were skiing and triggered a small avalanche on a cut-back above the highway. One or both were caught in the slide. The avalanche ran onto the highway and blocked one lane of traffic. CDOT quickly cleaned up the debris, but it made the 5 o'clock news. On Thursday, an observer watched three skiers cluster tightly together in a north facing start zone above some cliffs, probably between Nitro and Rush Chutes. The slope fractured at the skier's feet, about 100 feet wide, and ran to the ground. Friday night, we got another report of a skier caught in an avalanche and tumbled over a cliff on Berthoud Pass Thursday. I was up around Arapaho Lakes on the east side of the Front Range Thursday. Visibly was poor, but every very steep slope within view had avalanched with 1-2 foot deep, soft slabs. Thursday morning south of Cameron Pass, a very wide natural avalanche ran, pulling out about 0.5 miles worth of west to north facing, cross loaded terrain. A third hand report of a close call in the Vail Summit zone on Ptarmigan Ridge by Vail Pass, when a snowboarder triggered a big avalanche and managed to escape while seeing "car sized chunks of snow go past him." The Front Range zone is complicated right now, with a snowpack varying in depth over different parts of the zone. Observers through out the zone have reported a highly variable snowpack. In places, the snow surface can support the weight of a rider and in other areas you may break through a thick faceted layer to the ground. As has been the case for some time now, we have two general concerns; 1) slides within the recent snow and wind layers, and 2) deep slab instabilities. Winds are moving a lot of snow to various lee aspects and cross-loaded terrain features. The snow and wind will continue today. New windslabs will get thicker and stiffer, getting easier to trigger and propagating farther. You will probably trigger soft slab slides within the upper snow layers on any wind-loaded steep aspect. As the snow moves in, you should observe changing conditions. On higher elevation north through east through south aspects where new snow has been building up over time into wind drifts and slabs, some buried weak layers deep down in the snowpack still remain. These can be potentially more dangerous as they can involve the entire winter snowpack. Observers are noting that the weak bottom third of the snowpack is getting weaker while the hard middle third of the snowpack is getting stronger. It may be getting harder to trigger a deep slab avalanche, but if you do, it could be a large and dangerous slide. Do not automatically trust a slope just because someone else has ridden it. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on north, northeast, east, southeast, south, and southwest aspects at all elevations. There are pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger on cross loaded terrain features on west and northwest aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable, and natural avalanches possible. Below treeline the danger is MODERATE on southwest, west, and northwest aspects. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, density, drifting, drifts, human triggered avalanches, orographic, path, settling, slabs, sluffing, sluffs, wind-loaded, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 1/12/2008 12:04:39 PM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Northwest flow continues through Sunday. Clouds are breaking up and thinning out this afternoon. The main driver of the current weather is orographic lift. The thickest clouds will stick around favored areas like the Steamboat, the northern Front Range, and Vail Pass. Light snow may continue overnight. Some snow will sneak into the Aspen area and maybe over the ridge into the Gunnison zone. The San Juans get a break from the snow. Sunday morning a pulse of moister air blows in, briefly increasing snowfall in those favored areas. Snow will be over by mid-afternoon. A ridge moves over on Monday. The models do not agree on the details after Monday, but they do promise more unsettled, stormy weather Tuesday on. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. I'll include additional details in this afternoon's Vail Summit forecast, which will be updated around 5 pm. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 18 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least two people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. We're tired of keeping track of the incidents. Weather Saturday Saturday Night Sunday Temperature(°F) 20-25 5-10 20-25 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 0-10 0-10 Wind Direction NNW WNW NNW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-2 0-2 0-2 Snowpack Discussion The little bits of snow since Thursday were very light and low density. It is sluffing on very steep slopes. So far, though, no-one has reported any slabs formed out of the recent snow. A bit of new snow and a bit of drifting will add a small load to northeast, east, and southeast aspects. Those are the aspects that you might find some soft windslabs and drifts, as well as a bit of cross drifting on other aspects. Expect to find some recent soft slabs that you can trigger on steep slopes. Older instabilities are settling out, so most of the avalanche problem will be sluffs and recent wind affected snow. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Grand Mesa zone is MODERATE on north, northeast, east, and southeast aspects at and elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible, especially on wind-loaded slopes 35 degrees and steeper. The danger is LOW on other aspects. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, faceted, facets, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, natural, natural avalanches, orographic, path, powder , slabs, starting zones, weak layers, wind slabs, windslab, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 1/12/2008 6:15:16 AM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Northwest flow continues through Sunday. Clouds are breaking up and thinning out this afternoon. The main driver of the current weather is orographic lift. The thickest clouds will stick around favored areas like the Steamboat, the northern Front Range, and Vail Pass. Light snow may continue overnight. Some snow will sneak into the Aspen area and maybe over the ridge into the Gunnison zone. The San Juans get a break from the snow. Sunday morning a pulse of moister air blows in, briefly increasing snowfall in those favored areas. Snow will be over by mid-afternoon. A ridge moves over on Monday. The models do not agree on the details after Monday, but they do promise more unsettled, stormy weather Tuesday on. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. I'll include additional details in this afternoon's Vail Summit forecast, which will be updated around 5 pm. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 18 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least two people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. We're tired of keeping track of the incidents. Weather Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Temperature(°F) 17-22 5-10 20-25 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction N N N Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-2 0-2 0-2 Snowpack Discussion Reports of natural and triggered avalanche activity in our region have slowed to a trickle as of Friday. However, given the extensive natural and artificially triggered releases in the last week, it should be perfectly clear that we have a tender snowpack with destructive potential. On Thursday, after a fresh foot of snow and steady winds reloaded alpine starting zones on Wednesday, a second round of avalanche mitigation efforts took place in the Ophir valley. Two large avalanches were brought down - both of them ran approximately 2,500', with fracture lines up to 6' deep to the ground. While it did take an artificial trigger to make these slides occur, remember that backcountry travelers can be artificial triggers, too. On that note, sadly, there was another avalanche fatality on Thursday, this time in the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. We have had so much snow since December and the powder turns have been wonderful - mostly at the ski areas. In the backcountry, travelers are starting to push their way back out into their favorite local areas. If there is one single thing to remember that could be very helpful as we start to get back out there it may be this: in the past week observers have seen and reported natural and triggered avalanches in places they have never seen run! What this means is that we cannot take any area for granted and we need to wisely evaluate our choice of terrain and our travel protocol. High winds out of the west-northwest through Friday did not do our fresh powder any favors near and above treeline. New windslab has formed, and there is plenty of snow to transport up high. While wind speeds have backed off overnight, they are still strong enough to move snow into upper starting zones, particularly on high east, southeast and south aspects. The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on all aspects and elevations, meaning that natural avalanches are still possible and human triggered slides are probable on steep terrain. There are not many reactive weak layers in the middle of the snowpack. The avalanche problems seem to be in the top couple feet, where recent snow formed wind slabs at the interface with older, faceted snow, or at the base where deep, weak facets lurk like land mines. The deep slabs will be hard to trigger, but as seen on Thursday in Ophir, they will result in a massive avalanche when they are triggered. The snowpack is still very tender and if you do travel into the backcountry, do not let powder fever and nice weather overwhelm your backcountry instincts to stay away from steep and exposed terrain. Let's all agree to not have the next in a string of avalanche incidents in Colorado be in the Northern San Juan, OK? Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Northern San Juan zone is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects and elevations - natural avalanches are possible and human-triggered avalanches are probable. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: MODERATE, avalanche danger, crust, faceting, human triggered avalanches, orographic, path, powder , settle, slabs, sluffing, weak layers, wind drifts, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 1/12/2008 11:43:06 AM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Northwest flow continues through Sunday. Clouds are breaking up and thinning out this afternoon. The main driver of the current weather is orographic lift. The thickest clouds will stick around favored areas like the Steamboat, the northern Front Range, and Vail Pass. Light snow may continue overnight. Some snow will sneak into the Aspen area and maybe over the ridge into the Gunnison zone. The San Juans get a break from the snow. Sunday morning a pulse of moister air blows in, briefly increasing snowfall in those favored areas. Snow will be over by mid-afternoon. A ridge moves over on Monday. The models do not agree on the details after Monday, but they do promise more unsettled, stormy weather Tuesday on. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. I'll include additional details in this afternoon's Vail Summit forecast, which will be updated around 5 pm. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 18 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least two people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. We're tired of keeping track of the incidents. Weather Saturday Saturday Night Sunday Temperature(°F) 18-23 3-8 22-27 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 10-20 Wind Direction N NNW NNW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-1 0-1 0-1 Snowpack Discussion The break in the weather has allowed the snowpack to settle. Observers have not seen avalanche activity or signs of instability for a couple days. There was some sluffing off very steep slopes. You may find some windslabs left over from the last storm. Watch for soft wind drifts and slabs on steep north, northeast, east, and southeast aspects. Check the stability on those slopes before you commit to them. It is a good idea to gradually work onto steeper and more exposed slopes as you get a feel for the snowpack and weak layers. Reevaluate the new snow often, because the instabilities are localized and each slope may be different. The snow surface is changing. A thin sun crust has strted to form on sunny southerly aspects. The clearing skies have started the near surface faceting process, and the recycled powder will just get better over the next few days. Enjoy, but do so in a way that will not add you to our statistics. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all aspects and elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible on steep slopes with recent wind loading. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: avalanche danger, human triggered avalanches, orographic, path, wind-loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 1/12/2008 7:08:53 AM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Northwest flow continues through Sunday. Clouds are breaking up and thinning out this afternoon. The main driver of the current weather is orographic lift. The thickest clouds will stick around favored areas like the Steamboat, the northern Front Range, and Vail Pass. Light snow may continue overnight. Some snow will sneak into the Aspen area and maybe over the ridge into the Gunnison zone. The San Juans get a break from the snow. Sunday morning a pulse of moister air blows in, briefly increasing snowfall in those favored areas. Snow will be over by mid-afternoon. A ridge moves over on Monday. The models do not agree on the details after Monday, but they do promise more unsettled, stormy weather Tuesday on. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. I'll include additional details in this afternoon's Vail Summit forecast, which will be updated around 5 pm. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 18 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least two people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. We're tired of keeping track of the incidents. Weather Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Temperature(°F) 12-17 3-8 17-22 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction NNW NW NNW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0-1 Snowpack Discussion There was an avalanche accident in the Sangres on Thursday. Details are still limited, but several forecasters are headed to the scene today. We hope to update with more facts this afternoon. The slide occurred near Little Bear Peak, west of Blanca Peak. A pair of hikers were caught in an avalanche mid-day Thursday. One hiker was able to free himself. He could not find his companion. The hiker made his way out of the mountains overnight, and was finally able to place a 911 call Friday morning. Search and Rescue crews were able to use a helicopter Friday, until winds and weather shut them down. The search will resume Saturday morning. The recent storm cycle generated very little snow for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Cold weather and strong winds from around the New Year likely created a classic strong over weak Colorado snowpack, especially on north through east to southeast aspects. Steep, wind-loaded slopes have the greatest chance of sliding. Avalanche Danger We have insufficient data to rate the avalanche danger in the Sangre de Cristo Zone. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, crossloaded, faceted, human triggered avalanches, natural, naturally, orographic, path, powder , slab, slabs, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/12/2008 6:29:34 AM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Northwest flow continues through Sunday. Clouds are breaking up and thinning out this afternoon. The main driver of the current weather is orographic lift. The thickest clouds will stick around favored areas like the Steamboat, the northern Front Range, and Vail Pass. Light snow may continue overnight. Some snow will sneak into the Aspen area and maybe over the ridge into the Gunnison zone. The San Juans get a break from the snow. Sunday morning a pulse of moister air blows in, briefly increasing snowfall in those favored areas. Snow will be over by mid-afternoon. A ridge moves over on Monday. The models do not agree on the details after Monday, but they do promise more unsettled, stormy weather Tuesday on. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. I'll include additional details in this afternoon's Vail Summit forecast, which will be updated around 5 pm. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 18 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least two people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. We're tired of keeping track of the incidents. Weather Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 5-10 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction NW NW NW Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-3 0-1 0-1 Snowpack Discussion Observers report avalanhces on east, southeast, and south aspects above treeline from north of Tennessee Pass, clear down through Monarch Pass and in the Mosquito Range. New snow and winds will increase the natural activity and make the snowpack more sensitive. The little bits of snow add up--accumulations were as much as 16 inches Friday morning, with almost a foot more Friday and Friday night. Northwest winds have been transporting and loading lots of snow, too. Earlier in the week, the winds came from the south and west. This makes a complicated pattern of slabs and loading in the backcountry. There are three avalanche concerns now. First is the number of naturally occurring slides on east through south to west aspects below treeline. Many of these occurred in terrain traps like steep drainages or gullies. Do not let your guard down just because you are out of the wind and below treeline. The second concern is the now buried hard slab found near and above treeline on the entire eastern half of the compass. Triggering a hard slab avalanche from below the typical start zone will remain probable. The third concern is widespread "consistently inconsistent" deep slab instability. Faceted grains near the ground have been growing larger and weaker every day, but their distribution is patchy and their strength inconsistent. This makes for a tricky, highly variable avalanche problem. Maybe the biggest concern is powder fever. Traveling safely in the backcountry will require solid skills in snowpack assessment, terrain evaluation, route finding, as well as smart travel practices. There is great snow out there, but there is also a complicated, variable snowpack. Do not push your luck with the avalanche dragon. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Sawatch Zone is CONSIDERABLE near and above treeline on wind loaded and crossloaded slopes facing north, northeast, east, southeast to south. Human triggered avalanches are probable on steep, loaded slopes. On other aspects and below treeline the danger is MODERATE. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, human triggered avalanches, lee , orographic, path, slab, slabs, surface hoar, weak layers, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/12/2008 6:26:16 AM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Northwest flow continues through Sunday. Clouds are breaking up and thinning out this afternoon. The main driver of the current weather is orographic lift. The thickest clouds will stick around favored areas like the Steamboat, the northern Front Range, and Vail Pass. Light snow may continue overnight. Some snow will sneak into the Aspen area and maybe over the ridge into the Gunnison zone. The San Juans get a break from the snow. Sunday morning a pulse of moister air blows in, briefly increasing snowfall in those favored areas. Snow will be over by mid-afternoon. A ridge moves over on Monday. The models do not agree on the details after Monday, but they do promise more unsettled, stormy weather Tuesday on. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. I'll include additional details in this afternoon's Vail Summit forecast, which will be updated around 5 pm. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 18 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least two people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. We're tired of keeping track of the incidents. Weather Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 0-5 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction W W W Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 1-4 1-3 1-4 Snowpack Discussion Another foot or two of snow fell Friday and Friday night. In some areas within the zone, the snowpack depth has increased almost 3 feet in the last three days! Observers around Farwell Mountain raved about conditions on Friday. They stayed on slopes less than 30 degrees steep, and saw no signs of instability. On Thursday, observers noted repeatedly that new snow is not bonding well with the old surface. Soft slabs of the new snow are failing easily in stability tests. They were seeing numerous soft slab releases on north through west aspects. On northerly aspects in Soda Creek, an observer found easy, clean test results (RB3, CT9 Q1) on a thin surface hoar layer now buried over four feet deep. As has been the case for some time now, we have two concerns - slides within the recent snow layers and deep slab instabilities. Wind speeds have not been exceedingly strong, but strong enough to move snow to lee east through south aspects. The potential for you to trigger soft slab slides within the new snow layer is greatest on these aspects, but you should watch for soft slab slides on all steep slopes. On north through east through south aspects some buried weak layers deeper in the snowpack remain. Observers are noting the that weak bottom third of the snowpack is getting weaker while the hard middle third of the snowpack is getting stronger. It may be getting harder to trigger a deep slab avalanche, but if you do, it could be a large and dangerous slide. Do not automatically trust a slope just because someone else has ridden it. Northwest flow means the Steamboat zone will likely receive sizeable new snowfall into Saturday. You will need to continue watching for soft slab activity and be aware of the possibility for deeper avalanches on north through east to south aspects. As the snow moves in, you should observe changing conditions. The avalanche danger could rise by Saturday. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Steamboat Zone is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects and elevations. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [57]caic@qwest.net. Vail ==== Current Keywords: MODERATE, avalanche danger, faceted, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, natural, natural avalanches, naturally, orographic, path, powder , slab, slabs, start zone, wind drifts, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 1/12/2008 6:58:25 AM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Northwest flow continues through Sunday. Clouds are breaking up and thinning out this afternoon. The main driver of the current weather is orographic lift. The thickest clouds will stick around favored areas like the Steamboat, the northern Front Range, and Vail Pass. Light snow may continue overnight. Some snow will sneak into the Aspen area and maybe over the ridge into the Gunnison zone. The San Juans get a break from the snow. Sunday morning a pulse of moister air blows in, briefly increasing snowfall in those favored areas. Snow will be over by mid-afternoon. A ridge moves over on Monday. The models do not agree on the details after Monday, but they do promise more unsettled, stormy weather Tuesday on. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. I'll include additional details in this afternoon's Vail Summit forecast, which will be updated around 5 pm. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 18 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least two people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. We're tired of keeping track of the incidents. Weather Saturday Saturday Night Sunday Temperature(°F) 10-15 0-5 10-15 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction WNW W WNW Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-4 0-2 1-4 Snowpack Discussion About 6 inches of snow accumulated Friday and Friday night. Reports of avalanche activity continue to come in, but slowed down a bit Friday. Thank you to everyone who sends us reports as they really help us tremendously! Reports indicate both natural and human triggered slides. A few of the reoccurring themes: below treeline it is only the top one to two feet that releases as soft slabs, and near and above treeline avalanches are stepping down to deeper instabilities. Some eventually take the entire snowpack with them, running on the ground. Most of the activity is occurring on east through south through south west aspects, with some big avalanches on north east aspects too. The largest slide reported occurred early Thursday southwest of Copper Mountain, on Jacques Ridge. It was a natural slide - east aspect, 12,100', slope angle in the low 30's, on a slope observers described as an infrequent producer. Shrine bowl avalanched naturally Wednesday or Thursday, wrapping 800 feet wide around east and northeast aspects. Sounds like there was a close call on Ptarmigan Ridge, when a snowboarder triggered a big avalanche and managed to escape while seeing "car sized chunks of snow go past him." The snowpack is highly variable and quite tricky. There are three avalanche concerns now. First is the number of naturally occurring slides on east through south to west aspects below treeline. Many of these occurred in terrain traps like steep drainages or gullies. Do not let your guard down just because you are out of the wind and below treeline. The second concern is the now buried hard slab found near and above treeline on the entire eastern half of the compass. Triggering a hard slab avalanche from below the typical start zone will remain probable. The third concern is widespread "consistently inconsistent" deep slab instability. Faceted grains near the ground have been growing larger and weaker every day, but their distribution is patchy and their strength inconsistent. This makes for a tricky, highly variable avalanche problem. Maybe the biggest concern is powder fever. Traveling safely in the backcountry will require solid skills in snowpack assessment, terrain evaluation, route finding, as well as smart travel practices. There is great snow out there, but there is also a complicated, variable snowpack. Do not push your luck with the avalanche dragon. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Vail Summit Zone is CONSDIERABLE on north, northeast east, southeast, and south aspects at all elevations. Human triggered avalanches are probable, and natural avalanches possible. New snow and strong winds have created fresh wind drifts and slabs, and some avalanches are running to the ground. On west and northwest aspects all elevations the danger is MODERATE.