Aspen ===== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, Human triggered avalanches, MODERATE, avalanche cycle, avalanche danger, avalanche paths, collapses, cross loaded, crust, faceted, facets, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, natural, path, paths, settled, slab, slabs, snow pit, weak layers, wind loaded, wind slabs, windslab, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 1/13/2008 7:56:50 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A weak shortwave continues to track through western Colorado this afternoon bringing flurries to most mountain areas. This disturbance will continue to track south as the flow veers more northerly. The airmass dries out overnight bringing partly cloudy to mostly clear skies Monday into Tuesday. An arctic system drops into the state by Tuesday night bringing plummeting temperatures and another chance of snow, mainly along the Divide. This very cold airmass does not look to hold much moisture so accumulations will be on the light side. Expect cold and drier conditions by Thursday. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. Details can be found in the Vail Summit forecast. Some new details on the fatal avalanche in the Sangres are in that zone forecast. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 24 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least three people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. Weather Sunday Sunday Night Monday Temperature(°F) 13-18 2-7 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 10-20 Wind Direction N NNE N Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0-2 0-1 0 Snowpack Discussion We are at the tail end of a large avalanche cycle around the Aspen Zone, with avalanche activity tapering off. The likelihood of natural avalanches has diminished, though human triggered slides remain possible to probable. The last little shot of snow came in with strong winds, adding a new set of hard and soft windslab to north through east to south aspects near and above treeline, or cross loaded around terrain features on other aspects. These new slabs are yet another concern in an already complex snowpack. Below the newest wind slabs a few weak layers of concern remain. Wind and snow over the past week have added several layers of slabs on north through east to south aspects. There are some hard slabs in the mix. These can be insidious, appearing strong until you reach the bottom edge where the slab thins. Triggered from the lower margin, the whole slab can rip out above you. The softer slabs on top will disguise the hard slabs. Deep in the snowpack is a layer of weak facets. Their distribution is patchy and their strength inconsistent. Slopes that did not avalanche in the last cycle are very suspect. Slopes that did slide have been reloaded with fresh slabs. There are some other factors to consider. Over five weeks of stormy weather and very few sunny days have created an atypical snowpack on slopes facing SE, S, and SW. You can find a snowpack that looks more like shaded terrain. Layers of concern on these slopes right now are often slabs with faceted snow below them and not the typical settled snowpack with numerous crust layers. It has been a rare month for snowfall and weather in our area. Be on the look out for out of the ordinary conditions. There are still plenty of places you can trigger an avalanche today and some of these may be big, nasty hard slabs. Travel will require a conservative approach. Don't base your decision to ride a slope on just one snow pit. Conditions are much too variable for limited observations. Stick with mellow terrain and be aware of both large avalanche paths and smaller terrain features. Pay attention to those clues the snowpack will give you. You will probably experience plenty of collapses and some shooting cracks in wind loaded areas today. Pay attention to these signs because the snowpack is trying to tell you something. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all slopes near and above treeline. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered ones probable. Be especially careful around wind loaded terrain near and above treeline on slopes facing N-NE-E-SE-S. Strong winds out of the W and NW during the day yesterday have transported lots of snow onto these aspects. Large paths that did not run during the last cycle are worrisome as well. Avalanche danger below treeline is an overall MODERATE. Human triggered avalanches are still possible here. Thanks to everyone who has submitted observations in the last few days. These are a huge help to the forecasts. Any avalanche, weather, or snowpack information can be e-mailed to us at caic@qwest.net. Front Range =========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, avalanche paths, cross loaded, facets, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, lee , natural, natural avalanches, path, slabs, start zones, stress, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/13/2008 4:27:00 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A weak shortwave continues to track through western Colorado this afternoon bringing flurries to most mountain areas. This disturbance will continue to track south as the flow veers more northerly. The airmass dries out overnight bringing partly cloudy to mostly clear skies Monday into Tuesday. An arctic system drops into the state by Tuesday night bringing plummeting temperatures and another chance of snow, mainly along the Divide. This very cold airmass does not look to hold much moisture so accumulations will be on the light side. Expect cold and drier conditions by Thursday. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. Details can be found in the Vail Summit forecast. Some new details on the fatal avalanche in the Sangres are in that zone forecast. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 24 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least three people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) -5 to 0 10-15 0-5 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 15-25 15-25 Wind Direction NW NW NNW Sky Cover Decreasing Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Reports of fresh slides continue to trickle in with more close calls. 3 separate human triggered slides occurred on Saturday on the western border of the zone near Loveland Pass. All were on southerly aspects above treeline, about 3 feet deep, 100-300 feet wide, running 200-400 vertical feet. One person was completely buried in one of these slides, though companions were able to dig the victim out. Luckily, they suffered only minor injuries. Several different parties in the Berthoud Pass area triggered slides just prior to the weekend as well. One of these slides ran on weak snow at the ground. Again, more close calls with very lucky survivors. An observer sent in a great picture of a fresh natural slide on a wind loaded east facing slope in the Cameron Pass area. Winds continue to move snow around out there. So remember, even though new snow accumulations have been modest, lee start zones are continually loading, stressing the snowpack to the tipping point. We know that is where it looks fat and fun to ride, but it is also the most likely place to trigger and avalanche. You don't want to be the straw that broke the avalanche dragon's back... Recent avalanche activity has predominately occurred on north, northeast, east, southeast and south aspects at all elevations. Wind affected snow and more reactive slabs can be found on these lee aspects in near and above treeline areas as well as in exposed areas below treeline. Watch for cross loaded terrain features as well. Many hard slabs from our last ferocious wind event are now covered by softer snow. Poke around and dig down into the snowpack before committing to avalanche terrain. Old slabs have the potential to run to the ground on weak basal facets. Faceted grains near the ground have been growing larger and weaker every day, but their distribution is patchy and their strength inconsistent. This makes for a tricky, highly variable avalanche problem. I would like to remind everyone about the seriousness of game we play out there. It is possible to safely ski and ride in the backcountry today. Please consider the consequences of your decisions and actions. Stick with mellow terrain and be aware of both large avalanche paths and smaller terrain features as human triggered slides remain possible to probable today. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on north, northeast, east, southeast, south, and southwest aspects at all elevations. There are pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger on cross loaded terrain features on west and northwest aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable, and natural avalanches possible. Below treeline the danger is MODERATE on southwest, west, and northwest aspects. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross loading, density, drifting, drifts, human triggered avalanches, path, settling, slabs, sluffing, sluffs, wind-loaded, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 1/13/2008 5:59:59 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A weak shortwave continues to track through western Colorado this afternoon bringing flurries to most mountain areas. This disturbance will continue to track south as the flow veers more northerly. The airmass dries out overnight bringing partly cloudy to mostly clear skies Monday into Tuesday. An arctic system drops into the state by Tuesday night bringing plummeting temperatures and another chance of snow, mainly along the Divide. This very cold airmass does not look to hold much moisture so accumulations will be on the light side. Expect cold and drier conditions by Thursday. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. Details can be found in the Vail Summit forecast. Some new details on the fatal avalanche in the Sangres are in that zone forecast. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 24 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least three people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. Weather Sunday Sunday Night Monday Temperature(°F) 20-25 10-15 25-30 Wind Speed(mph) 0-10 0-10 5-15 Wind Direction NNE NE NNE Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0-1 0 0 Snowpack Discussion New accumulations of snow since Thursday have been light and low density, though it is sluffing on very steep slopes. So far, no-one has reported any slabs formed out of the recent snow. New snow and a bit of drifting will add a small load to northeast, east, southeast and south aspects. Those are the aspects that you might find some soft windslabs and drifts, as well as a bit of cross loading on other aspects. Expect to find some recent soft slabs that you can trigger on steep slopes. Older instabilities are settling out, so the main avalanche concerns will be sluffs and recent wind affected snow. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Grand Mesa zone is MODERATE on north, northeast, east, and southeast aspects at aall elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible, especially on wind-loaded slopes 35 degrees and steeper. The danger is LOW on other aspects. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, crowns, facets, human triggered avalanches, natural, path, powder , ski cut, slabs, weak layers, whumpfing, wind loading, wind slabs, wind transport, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 1/13/2008 6:14:04 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A weak shortwave continues to track through western Colorado this afternoon bringing flurries to most mountain areas. This disturbance will continue to track south as the flow veers more northerly. The airmass dries out overnight bringing partly cloudy to mostly clear skies Monday into Tuesday. An arctic system drops into the state by Tuesday night bringing plummeting temperatures and another chance of snow, mainly along the Divide. This very cold airmass does not look to hold much moisture so accumulations will be on the light side. Expect cold and drier conditions by Thursday. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. Details can be found in the Vail Summit forecast. Some new details on the fatal avalanche in the Sangres are in that zone forecast. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 24 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least three people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. Weather Sunday Sunday Night Monday Temperature(°F) 20-25 5-10 22-27 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 5-15 10-20 Wind Direction NE E N Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0-1 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Reports of natural and triggered avalanche activity in the region has slowed though recent strong winds kicked of a brief, but impressive natural cycle in the alpine zone around the Cement Creek area. An observer noted several large slides on easterly slopes with crowns up to 4 feet deep, some stepping down to the ground. Additionally, the extensive natural and artificially triggered avalanches over the past week should make it perfectly clear that we have a tender snowpack. Avalanches have the potential to run BIG. Up to 6 inches of snow fell Friday and Friday night, and a few observers braved the vicious westerly winds. The few folks who were out noted rapid wind loading of east aspects and lots of wind transport. Cracking, whumpfing, and reactive new windslabs were common. Near Molas Pass on Friday, observers triggered an avalanche with a ski cut. The slide was on an east aspect near treeline, broke 3 feet deep to the ground, 150 feet wide, and ran 400 vertical feet. Thursday a second round of avalanche mitigation efforts took place in the Ophir valley. Two large avalanches were triggered, both of running approximately 2,500 vertical feet, with fracture lines up to 6' deep to the ground. While it did take an artificial trigger to make these slides occur, remember that backcountry travelers are artificial triggers, too. There are not many reactive weak layers in the middle of the snowpack. The avalanche problems seem to be in the top few feet, where recent snow formed wind slabs, or at the base where deep, weak facets lurk like land mines. The deep slabs will be hard to trigger, but as seen on Thursday in Ophir, they will result in a massive avalanche when they are triggered. The weather is improving, and the powder (where it survived the winds) is calling. Do not let powder fever and nice weather overwhelm your good judgement to stay away from steep and exposed terrain. In the past week observers have seen and reported natural and triggered avalanches in places they have never seen run! This means we cannot take any area for granted. Cautiously evaluate your choice of terrain and decision making while traveling in the backcountry today. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Northern San Juan zone is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects and elevations. Natural avalanches are possible and human-triggered avalanches are probable on all steep slopes. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: MODERATE, avalanche danger, crust, drifts, faceting, human triggered avalanches, path, powder , settle, slabs, sluffing, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 1/13/2008 6:21:40 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A weak shortwave continues to track through western Colorado this afternoon bringing flurries to most mountain areas. This disturbance will continue to track south as the flow veers more northerly. The airmass dries out overnight bringing partly cloudy to mostly clear skies Monday into Tuesday. An arctic system drops into the state by Tuesday night bringing plummeting temperatures and another chance of snow, mainly along the Divide. This very cold airmass does not look to hold much moisture so accumulations will be on the light side. Expect cold and drier conditions by Thursday. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. Details can be found in the Vail Summit forecast. Some new details on the fatal avalanche in the Sangres are in that zone forecast. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 24 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least three people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. Weather Sunday Sunday Night Monday Temperature(°F) 22-27 7-12 25-30 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction NNE ENE N Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Clear Clear Snow(in) 0-1 0 0 Snowpack Discussion The break in the weather has allowed the snowpack to settle. Observers have not seen avalanche activity or signs of instability for a couple days, though there was some sluffing off very steep slopes. You may find some windslabs left over from the last storm. Watch for soft wind drifts and slabs on steep north, northeast, east, and southeast aspects. Check the stability on those slopes before you commit to them. It is a good idea to gradually work onto steeper and more exposed slopes as you get a feel for the snowpack and weak layers. Reevaluate the new snow often, because the instabilities are localized and each slope may be different. If traveling in the Southern San Juan along the 550 corridor today, we encourage you to read the Northern San Juan forecast as well, since zone boundaries are not distinct. The snow surface is changing. A thin sun crust has started to form on sunny southerly aspects. The clearing skies have started the near surface faceting process, and the recycled powder will just get better over the next few days. Enjoy, but do so in a way that will not add you to our statistics. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all aspects and elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible on steep slopes with recent wind loading. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, Human triggered, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross loaded, human triggered avalanches, path, rescue gear, slabs, wind loaded, wind-loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 1/13/2008 4:30:27 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A weak shortwave continues to track through western Colorado this afternoon bringing flurries to most mountain areas. This disturbance will continue to track south as the flow veers more northerly. The airmass dries out overnight bringing partly cloudy to mostly clear skies Monday into Tuesday. An arctic system drops into the state by Tuesday night bringing plummeting temperatures and another chance of snow, mainly along the Divide. This very cold airmass does not look to hold much moisture so accumulations will be on the light side. Expect cold and drier conditions by Thursday. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. Details can be found in the Vail Summit forecast. Some new details on the fatal avalanche in the Sangres are in that zone forecast. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 24 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least three people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 20-25 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction NE N NW Sky Cover Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion There was an avalanche accident in the Sangres on Thursday. Forecasters were in the field Saturday, and were able to get some dimensions of the avalanche. The slide occurred near Little Bear Peak, west of Blanca Peak. A pair of hikers were caught in an avalanche mid-day Thursday. They descending the Hourglass, a common route for climbing the peak. The slide broke near the ridge in complicated terrain. It was about 4 feet deep, 400 feet wide, and ran 800 to 1000 vertical feet over some cliffs. The debris was up to 10 feet deep. One hiker was buried to his waist, and was able to free himself. He searched but could not find his companion. The hiker made his way out of the mountains overnight, and was finally able to place a 911 call Friday morning. Search and Rescue crews have begun the long process of searching the debris. On Friday, one of the SAR volunteers spotted no other avalanche activity. The recent storm cycle generated very little snow for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, though pockets of plump, loaded terrain persist. Cold weather and strong winds from around the New Year likely created a classic strong over weak Colorado snowpack, especially on north through east to south aspects. Steep, wind-loaded slopes present the greatest avalanche danger today. North aspects have been almost completely stripped by winds while south aspects hold deep hard slabs above narrow terrain traps. Other aspects have been cross loaded. Use caution and always carry appropriate rescue gear while traveling in the backcountry. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Sangre de Cristo Zone is CONSIDERABLE above trelline and MODERATE below. Human triggered slides are possible to probable today. Carefully evaluate steep wind loaded slopes. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, avalanche paths, crossloaded, facets, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, path, powder , slab, slabs, wind loaded, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/13/2008 4:29:52 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A weak shortwave continues to track through western Colorado this afternoon bringing flurries to most mountain areas. This disturbance will continue to track south as the flow veers more northerly. The airmass dries out overnight bringing partly cloudy to mostly clear skies Monday into Tuesday. An arctic system drops into the state by Tuesday night bringing plummeting temperatures and another chance of snow, mainly along the Divide. This very cold airmass does not look to hold much moisture so accumulations will be on the light side. Expect cold and drier conditions by Thursday. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. Details can be found in the Vail Summit forecast. Some new details on the fatal avalanche in the Sangres are in that zone forecast. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 24 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least three people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 3-8 15-20 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction NE N WNW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion We have not heard much from the Sawatch for several days. Snow has tapered off and winds are easing, but consider the following avalanche concerns. First many windslabs exist in the upper snowpack. Wind and snow over the past week have added several layer of both hard and soft slab on north through east to south aspects. Softer slabs sit on top of harder slabs in some places disguising their presence. The hard slabs can be insidious, appearing strong until you reach the bottom edge where the slab thins. Triggered from the lower margin, the whole slab can rip out above you. A layer of facets still lurks deep in the snowpack, but their distribution is patchy and their strength inconsistent. This makes for a tricky, highly variable avalanche problem. Maybe the biggest concern is powder fever. Traveling safely in the backcountry will require solid skills in snowpack assessment, terrain evaluation, route finding, as well as smart travel practices. There is great snow out there, but there is also a complicated, variable snowpack. Do not push your luck with the avalanche dragon. Consider the consequences of your decisions and actions. Stick with mellow terrain and be aware of both large avalanche paths and smaller terrain features as human triggered slides remain possible to probable today. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Sawatch Zone is CONSIDERABLE near and above treeline on wind loaded and crossloaded slopes facing north, northeast, east, southeast to south. Human triggered avalanches are probable on steep, loaded slopes. On other aspects and below treeline the danger is MODERATE. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, density, human triggered avalanches, path, powder. , rutschblock, shear, shovel, slab, surface hoar, weak layer, weak layers, windloaded, windslab, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/13/2008 4:25:13 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A weak shortwave continues to track through western Colorado this afternoon bringing flurries to most mountain areas. This disturbance will continue to track south as the flow veers more northerly. The airmass dries out overnight bringing partly cloudy to mostly clear skies Monday into Tuesday. An arctic system drops into the state by Tuesday night bringing plummeting temperatures and another chance of snow, mainly along the Divide. This very cold airmass does not look to hold much moisture so accumulations will be on the light side. Expect cold and drier conditions by Thursday. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. Details can be found in the Vail Summit forecast. Some new details on the fatal avalanche in the Sangres are in that zone forecast. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 24 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least three people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 20-25 8-13 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction N NNW NW Sky Cover Decreasing Partly Cloudy Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0-1 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Another foot or two of snow fell Friday and Friday night. Snowfall intensity let up a bit on Saturday but continued to accumulate, up to 8 inches by Sunday morning. In some areas within the zone, the snowpack depth has increased more than 3 feet in the last three days! Saturday on Rabbit Ears Pass, observers were breaking trail through waist deep, 3% density snow. In pits, the total snow depth was about 10 feet, with the top 6 feet powder. The only weak layer they could find was under all the powder. Observers found a buried surface hoar layer under about a meter of new snow. It proved reactive, failing easily in both shovel shear and rutschblock tests though, the "slab" was nothing but "goose feathers". Observers around Farwell Mountain raved about conditions on slopes les than 30 degrees on Friday. Other observers are selecting low angle terrain too. Sticking to lower angled terrain and lower elevations, observers have seen very few signs of instability. However, deeply buried weak layers can still be found, and early in the storm observers were reporting some clean, moderate test scores at the base of the storm snow, so it's not a free for all out there. Always investigate the snowpack before committing to steeper slopes. If you get to higher elevations, you will find some soft windslabs. The predominate wind direction has been northwesterly, with some periods of southwesterly winds mixed in. Speeds have been just strong enough to move snow onto high elevation east, southeast, and south aspects. You could trigger a big avalanche on a steep, windloaded slope. The windslab can be quite soft and feel like powder, but can become destructive slides once all that snow starts moving down the mountain. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Steamboat Zone is CONSIDERABLE near and above treeline on on all aspects and elevations. Watch for steep slopes with windloaded snow. Below treeline the danger is MODERATE. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [57]caic@qwest.net. Vail ==== Current Keywords: MODERATE, avalanche danger, avalanche paths, cross loaded, crown, crowns, dense, facets, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, natural, natural avalanches, path, slabs, wind drifts, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 1/13/2008 4:28:52 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A weak shortwave continues to track through western Colorado this afternoon bringing flurries to most mountain areas. This disturbance will continue to track south as the flow veers more northerly. The airmass dries out overnight bringing partly cloudy to mostly clear skies Monday into Tuesday. An arctic system drops into the state by Tuesday night bringing plummeting temperatures and another chance of snow, mainly along the Divide. This very cold airmass does not look to hold much moisture so accumulations will be on the light side. Expect cold and drier conditions by Thursday. There was another avalanche fatality in the East Vail area Saturday morning, in a path close to last week's fatal avalanche. Details can be found in the Vail Summit forecast. Some new details on the fatal avalanche in the Sangres are in that zone forecast. For the last two weeks, we have received almost daily reports of incidents, close calls, and big human triggered avalanches across the state. We know of 24 people caught in avalanches since December 30, there are rumors of more, and avalanches have killed at least three people. Many ranges in Colorado have challenging avalanche problems. Riding conditions are fantastic in many spots, too. By all means, get out and enjoy all the snow, but please do it safely. Careful terrain selection, conservative decision making, and a large margin of error will help keep you safe. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) -5-0 12-17 2-7 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction NNW NW W Sky Cover Decreasing Partly Cloudy Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0-1 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Forecasters are investigating the fatal avalanche that occurred in the East Vail area Saturday morning. Two skiers triggered an avalanche on a northeast facing slide path, near last week's fatal avalanche. One skier was caught, partially buried, and able to self rescue. The other skier was fully buried and killed. The crown measured 4 to 5 feet deep, 250- 300 feet wide, and ran about 1000 vertical feet through dense trees. The slide initiated in a small feeder chute, then propagated below a cliff band to almost the full width of the channeled path. We hope to post a preliminary report on the web by Monday. An observer in the Francie's Cabin area on Sunday noted very tender conditions near treeline, where his party remotely triggered a slide on an ESE aspect. Observers also noted 2 fresh natural slides in the SSE to SSW facing Uneva bowl off Vail Pass on Sunday. The larger of the crowns cracked up to 6 feet deep, 2000 feet wide and ran to the ground in places. Our long time observer noted how infrequently he has seen this path slide and was surprised at how big it ran. On Saturday, there were three skier triggered avalanches on Loveland Pass Saturday afternoon. All were on southerly aspects above treeline, about 3 feet deep, 100-300 feet wide, running 200-400 vertical feet. One person was completely buried in one of these slides, though companions were able to dig the victim out. Luckily, they suffered only minor injuries. Observers reported both natural and human triggered slides on the western side of the zone as well. Some were quite large and ran in areas that infrequently slide. Recent avalanche activity has predominately occurred on north, northeast, east, southeast and south aspects at all elevations. Wind affected snow and more reactive slabs can be found on these lee aspects in near and above treeline areas as well as in exposed areas below treeline. Watch for cross loaded terrain features as well. Many hard slabs from our last ferocious wind event are now covered by softer snow. Poke around and dig down into the snowpack before committing to avalanche terrain. Old slabs have the potential to run to the ground on weak basal facets. Faceted grains near the ground have been growing larger and weaker every day, but their distribution is patchy and their strength inconsistent. This makes for a tricky, highly variable avalanche problem. We would like to remind everyone about the seriousness of game we play out there. It is possible to safely ski and ride in the backcountry today. Please consider the consequences of your decisions and actions. Stick with mellow terrain and be aware of both large avalanche paths and smaller terrain features as human triggered slides remain possible to probable today. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Vail Summit Zone is CONSDIERABLE on north, northeast east, southeast, and south aspects at all elevations. Human triggered avalanches are probable, and natural avalanches possible. New snow and strong winds have created fresh wind drifts and slabs, and some avalanches are running to the ground. On west and northwest aspects all elevations the danger is MODERATE.