Aspen ===== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, Human triggered avalanches, MODERATE, avalanche cycle, avalanche danger, avalanche paths, cold front, collapses, cross loaded, density, facets, high pressure, human triggered, lee , natural avalanches, path, precipitation , slabs, wind loaded, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 1/14/2008 9:02:31 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Our window of high pressure continues tonight, bringing mostly clear skies and mild conditions statewide. The next weather system moves into the region late Tuesday afternoon. An arctic cold front will dig southward from Canada bringing frigid temperatures and another round of light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. This polar continental airmass is not very moist so accumulations should be on the light side. The snow that falls will be very low density, goose feathers. Precipitation tapers by Thursday morning, though unseasonably cold temperatures will remain. Periodic disturbances in northerly flow will bring a chance of scattered snow showers through the week. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 15-20 5-10 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 10-20 15-25 Wind Direction NNE NW W Sky Cover Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0-1 PM Snowpack Discussion We are at the tail end of a large avalanche cycle around the Aspen Zone, though activity has not ended. On Sunday, skiers in the Willow drainage near Snowmass triggered a large avalanche on a SE aspect above treeline. The slide was triggered mid path and thankfully, no one was caught. Although the likelihood of natural avalanches has diminished throughout the zone, human triggered slides remain possible to probable. Our last wind event left both hard and soft windslabs on north through east to south aspects near and above treeline. Watch for cross loaded terrain features as well. Recent avalanche activity has predominately occurred on easterly aspects at all elevations. Wind affected snow and more reactive slabs can be found on lee aspects in near and above treeline areas as well as in thinner areas below treeline. Many hard slabs from our last ferocious wind event are now covered by softer snow. Poke around and dig down into the snowpack before committing to slopes steeper than 30 degrees. Old slabs have the potential to run to the ground on weak basal facets. Faceted grains near the ground have been growing larger and weaker every day, but their distribution is patchy and their strength inconsistent. This makes for a tricky, highly variable avalanche problem. Slopes that did not avalanche in the last cycle are very suspect. Slopes that did slide have been reloaded with fresh slabs. Look for more tender conditions in areas of the zone where the snowpack remains thinner, namely the Castle Creek, Ashcroft and Independence Pass areas. It has been a rare month for snowfall and weather in our area. Be on the look out for out of the ordinary conditions. There are still plenty of places you can trigger an avalanche today and some of these may be big, nasty hard slabs. Travel will require a conservative approach. We have a complex snowpack so investigate it often and with scrutiny. Stick with mellow terrain and be aware of both large avalanche paths and smaller terrain features. Pay attention to those clues the snowpack will give you. You will probably experience plenty of collapses and some shooting cracks in wind loaded areas today. Pay attention to these signs because the snowpack is trying to tell you something. P.S. Don't forget the CAIC fundraiser tonight, Monday, Jan 14th. See announcements below for more information. Thanks for your support! Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on north, northeast, east, southeast and south aspects near and above treeline. Pockets of CONSIDERABLE exist on southwest, west and northwest aspects on steep cross loaded slopes near and above treeline. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered ones probable. The avalanche danger below treeline is an overall MODERATE. Human triggered avalanches are still possible here. Thanks to everyone who has submitted observations in the last few days. These are a huge help to the forecasts. Any avalanche, weather, or snowpack information can be e-mailed to us at caic@qwest.net. Front Range =========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, avalanche paths, cold front, cross loaded, density, facets, high pressure, human triggered, lee , natural, natural avalanches, precipitation , slabs, start zones, stress, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/14/2008 6:03:14 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Our window of high pressure continues tonight, bringing mostly clear skies and mild conditions statewide. The next weather system moves into the region late Tuesday afternoon. An arctic cold front will dig southward from Canada bringing frigid temperatures and another round of light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. This polar continental airmass is not very moist so accumulations should be on the light side. The snow that falls will be very low density, goose feathers. Precipitation tapers by Thursday morning, though unseasonably cold temperatures will remain. Periodic disturbances in northerly flow will bring a chance of scattered snow showers through the week. Weather Monday Night Tuesday Tuesday Night Temperature(°F) 12-17 0-5 13-18 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 15-25 25-35 Wind Direction N NW W Sky Cover Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0-1 PM Snowpack Discussion Reports of fresh slides continue to trickle in with more close calls. 3 separate human triggered slides occurred on Saturday on the western border of the zone near Loveland Pass. All were on southerly aspects above treeline, about 3 feet deep, 100-300 feet wide, running 200-400 vertical feet. One person was completely buried in one of these slides, though companions were able to dig the victim out. Luckily, they suffered only minor injuries. Several different parties in the Berthoud Pass area triggered slides just prior to the weekend as well. One of these slides ran on weak snow at the ground. Again, more close calls with very lucky survivors. An observer sent in a great picture of a fresh natural slide on a wind loaded east facing slope in the Cameron Pass area. Winds continue to move snow around out there. So remember, even though new snow accumulations have been modest, lee start zones are continually loading, stressing the snowpack to the tipping point. We know that is where it looks fat and fun to ride, but it is also the most likely place to trigger and avalanche. You don't want to be the straw that broke the avalanche dragon's back... Recent avalanche activity has predominately occurred on north, northeast, east, southeast and south aspects at all elevations. Wind affected snow and more reactive slabs can be found on these lee aspects in near and above treeline areas as well as in exposed areas below treeline. Watch for cross loaded terrain features as well. Many hard slabs from our last ferocious wind event are now covered by softer snow. Poke around and dig down into the snowpack before committing to avalanche terrain. Old slabs have the potential to run to the ground on weak basal facets. Faceted grains near the ground have been growing larger and weaker every day, but their distribution is patchy and their strength inconsistent. This makes for a tricky, highly variable avalanche problem. I would like to remind everyone about the seriousness of game we play out there. It is possible to safely ski and ride in the backcountry today. Please consider the consequences of your decisions and actions. Stick with mellow terrain and be aware of both large avalanche paths and smaller terrain features as human triggered slides remain possible to probable today. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on north, northeast, east, southeast, south, and southwest aspects at all elevations. There are pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger on cross loaded terrain features on west and northwest aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable, and natural avalanches possible. Below treeline the danger is MODERATE on southwest, west, and northwest aspects. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cold front, cross loading, density, drifts, high pressure, precipitation , settle, settling, slabs, sluffs, stabilize, wind-loaded, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 1/14/2008 6:21:48 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Our window of high pressure continues tonight, bringing mostly clear skies and mild conditions statewide. The next weather system moves into the region late Tuesday afternoon. An arctic cold front will dig southward from Canada bringing frigid temperatures and another round of light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. This polar continental airmass is not very moist so accumulations should be on the light side. The snow that falls will be very low density, goose feathers. Precipitation tapers by Thursday morning, though unseasonably cold temperatures will remain. Periodic disturbances in northerly flow will bring a chance of scattered snow showers through the week. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 22-27 7-12 25-30 Wind Speed(mph) 0-10 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction NNE WNW WSW Sky Cover Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0-1 PM Snowpack Discussion Thus far, no one has reported any unstable slabs from the recent storm, though this does not mean they do not exist. New snow and light winds have added a small new load to northeast, east, southeast and south aspects. Mild conditions on Sunday have likely helped new layers to stabilize and settle. Expect to find some soft windslabs and drifts, as well as a bit of cross loading on northeast through east through southwest aspects. Slabs will be most reactive on steep slopes near rock bands, especially in the Crag Crest area. Older instabilities are settling out, so the main avalanche concerns will be sluffs and recent wind affected snow. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Grand Mesa zone is MODERATE on north, northeast, east, and southeast aspects at aall elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible, especially on wind-loaded slopes 35 degrees and steeper. The danger is LOW on other aspects. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cold front, crowns, density, high pressure, natural, naturally, powder , precipitation , settle, settling, slab, starting zones, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 1/14/2008 6:25:48 AM Forecaster: Mark Rikkers Weather Synopsis Our window of high pressure continues tonight, bringing mostly clear skies and mild conditions statewide. The next weather system moves into the region late Tuesday afternoon. An arctic cold front will dig southward from Canada bringing frigid temperatures and another round of light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. This polar continental airmass is not very moist so accumulations should be on the light side. The snow that falls will be very low density, goose feathers. Precipitation tapers by Thursday morning, though unseasonably cold temperatures will remain. Periodic disturbances in northerly flow will bring a chance of scattered snow showers through the week. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 20-25 10-15 20-25 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 15-25 Wind Direction NE NNW W Sky Cover Mostly Clear Clear Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion A welcome break in the weather has allowed the snowpack to settle and adjust to the weight of recent storm snow a bit. Observers from different parts of our zone are reporting that the snowpack is settling out relatively quickly, which is a good indication that the snowpack is gaining stregth. However, reports of natural and triggered avalanche activity, particularly above treeline, continue to come in. Recent strong winds set off a brief but impressive natural cycle in the alpine zone around the Cement Creek area. An observer in the area noted several large slides, mostly on easterly slopes, with crowns up to 4 feet deep that stepped down to the ground. An observer in the Ophir area noted three recent slides, also above treeline, that were likely triggered by the same wind event, though fracture lines were not as deep. Wind is a major factor in avalanche activity and it is not uncommon to see slides run naturally days after snowfall has stopped because of wind, even in starting zones that have already pulled out. Remember that wind, especially near and above treeline, can transport significant amounts of snow and redistribute it into different areas. Along the way, the wind causes the snow grains to break apart and take on a smaller, simpler form that allows them to pack in tightly together. The result is often a new, cohesive slab with good propagation potential sitting on top of whatever surface snow was there previously. It is wise to keep track of wind direction and wind speeds regularly, not just snowfall amounts. You can check local weather stations with hourly averages on the internet; the links are on the CAIC's home page. Our snowpack, as is often the case, is complex and difficult to generalize about. At this point, while the snowpack is generally settling out, particularly below treeline, the wind has played a major role in keeping conditions near and above treeline tender on all aspects. This last storm cycle was significant and any steep slopes that did not slide naturally during the storm remain especially suspect. Observers are digging some deep pits and finding mixed results - stability here, instability there. This is a time to remain cautious - any slides that do occur have the potential to run fairly big. It looks like we're in for some good weather this week, and there is plenty of powder out there calling. As you start to venture further out into the backcountry, to places you've been thinking about for a while now, remember that in the past week observers have seen and reported natural and triggered avalanches in places they have never seen run! This means we cannot take any area for granted. Cautiously evaluate your choice of terrain and decision making while traveling in the backcountry today. The extensive natural and artificially triggered avalanches over the past week should make it perfectly clear that we have a tender snowpack. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Northern San Juan zone is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects and elevations near and above treeline. Natural avalanches are possible and human-triggered avalanches are probable on all steep slopes. Below treeline, the danger is MODERATE on all aspects - human triggered avalanches remain possible, particularly on steep, convex slopes. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: MODERATE, avalanche danger, cold front, cross loaded, crust, density, faceting, high pressure, powder , precipitation , settle, weak layers, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 1/14/2008 6:36:23 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Our window of high pressure continues tonight, bringing mostly clear skies and mild conditions statewide. The next weather system moves into the region late Tuesday afternoon. An arctic cold front will dig southward from Canada bringing frigid temperatures and another round of light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. This polar continental airmass is not very moist so accumulations should be on the light side. The snow that falls will be very low density, goose feathers. Precipitation tapers by Thursday morning, though unseasonably cold temperatures will remain. Periodic disturbances in northerly flow will bring a chance of scattered snow showers through the week. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 20-25 12-17 22-27 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction NNE NW W Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Clear Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion The break in the weather has allowed the snowpack to settle and adjust to the weight of recent storm snow. Observers have not seen avalanche activity or signs of instability for a couple days, though reports avalanches that slid during the storm continue to trickle in. Observers reported great skiing and stable snow in both the La Platas and the Wolf Creek Pass area over the weekend. You may find recently deposited windslabs and cross loaded terrain features on exposed slopes facing north through east through south. Check the stability on those slopes before committing to them. Gradually work onto steeper and more exposed slopes as you get a feel for the snowpack and weak layers. Reevaluate the new snow often, as instabilities may be localized. If traveling in the Southern San Juan along the 550 corridor today, we encourage you to read the Northern San Juan forecast as well, since zone boundaries are not distinct. The snowpack in that region may be touchier than in the Wolf Creek Pass area. The snow surface is changing. A thin sun crust has started to form on sunny southerly aspects with warming temperatures. The clearing skies have started the near surface faceting process, and the recycled powder will just get better over the next few days. Enjoy, but do so in a way that will not add you to our statistics. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all aspects and elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible on steep slopes with recent wind loading. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, Human triggered, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cold front, cross loaded, density, high pressure, precipitation , rescue gear, slabs, wind loaded, wind-loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 1/14/2008 6:28:33 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Our window of high pressure continues tonight, bringing mostly clear skies and mild conditions statewide. The next weather system moves into the region late Tuesday afternoon. An arctic cold front will dig southward from Canada bringing frigid temperatures and another round of light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. This polar continental airmass is not very moist so accumulations should be on the light side. The snow that falls will be very low density, goose feathers. Precipitation tapers by Thursday morning, though unseasonably cold temperatures will remain. Periodic disturbances in northerly flow will bring a chance of scattered snow showers through the week. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 20-25 5-10 22-27 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 15-25 Wind Direction NNW NW WNW Sky Cover Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion There was an avalanche accident in the Sangres on Thursday near Little Bear Peak, west of Blanca Peak. A pair of hikers were caught in an avalanche mid-day Thursday as they descended the Hourglass, a common route for climbing the peaks. The slide broke near the ridge in complicated terrain. It was about 4 feet deep, 400 feet wide, and ran 800 to 1000 vertical feet over some cliffs. The debris was up to 10 feet deep. One hiker was buried to his waist, and was able to free himself. He searched but could not find his sister who he had been traveling with. The hiker made his way out of the mountains overnight, and was finally able to place a 911 call Friday morning. Search and Rescue crews began the long process of searching the debris, though the body of the second hiker has not yet been located. Ample "hangfire" or additional snow that has not yet slid, still exists above the search area, creating a hazardous situation for rescuers. The recent storm cycle generated very little snow for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, though pockets of plump, loaded terrain persist. Cold weather and strong winds from around the New Year likely created a classic strong over weak Colorado snowpack, especially on north through east to south aspects. Steep, wind-loaded slopes present the greatest avalanche danger today. North aspects have been almost completely stripped by winds while south aspects hold deep hard slabs above narrow terrain traps. Other aspects have been cross loaded. Use caution and always carry appropriate rescue gear while traveling in the backcountry. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Sangre de Cristo Zone is CONSIDERABLE above trelline and MODERATE below. Human triggered slides are possible to probable today. Carefully evaluate steep wind loaded slopes. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, avalanche paths, cold front, crossloaded, density, facets, high pressure, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, powder , precipitation , slab, slabs, wind loaded, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/14/2008 6:30:14 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Our window of high pressure continues tonight, bringing mostly clear skies and mild conditions statewide. The next weather system moves into the region late Tuesday afternoon. An arctic cold front will dig southward from Canada bringing frigid temperatures and another round of light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. This polar continental airmass is not very moist so accumulations should be on the light side. The snow that falls will be very low density, goose feathers. Precipitation tapers by Thursday morning, though unseasonably cold temperatures will remain. Periodic disturbances in northerly flow will bring a chance of scattered snow showers through the week. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 15-20 5-10 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 15-25 20-30 Wind Direction N NW WNW Sky Cover Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0-1 PM Snowpack Discussion We have not heard much from the Sawatch for several days. Snow has tapered off and winds are easing, but consider the following avalanche concerns. First many windslabs exist in the upper snowpack. Wind and snow over the past week have added several layer of both hard and soft slab on north through east to south aspects. Softer slabs sit on top of harder slabs in some places disguising their presence. The hard slabs can be insidious, appearing strong until you reach the bottom edge where the slab thins. Triggered from the lower margin, the whole slab can rip out above you. A layer of facets still lurks deep in the snowpack, but the distribution is patchy and the strength inconsistent. This makes for a tricky, highly variable avalanche problem. Maybe the biggest concern is powder fever. Traveling safely in the backcountry will require solid skills in snowpack assessment, terrain evaluation, route finding, as well as smart travel practices. There is great snow out there, but there is also a complicated, variable snowpack. Do not push your luck with the avalanche dragon. Consider the consequences of your decisions and actions. Stick with mellow terrain and be aware of both large avalanche paths and smaller terrain features as human triggered slides remain possible to probable today. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Sawatch Zone is CONSIDERABLE near and above treeline on wind loaded and crossloaded slopes facing north, northeast, east, southeast to south. Human triggered avalanches are probable on steep, loaded slopes. On other aspects and below treeline the danger is MODERATE. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: MODERATE, avalanche danger, cold front, cross loaded, density, facets, high pressure, lee , powder , precipitation , settlement, slabs, weak layers, windloaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/14/2008 4:29:12 PM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Our window of high pressure continues tonight, bringing mostly clear skies and mild conditions statewide. The next weather system moves into the region late Tuesday afternoon. An arctic cold front will dig southward from Canada bringing frigid temperatures and another round of light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. This polar continental airmass is not very moist so accumulations should be on the light side. The snow that falls will be very low density, goose feathers. Precipitation tapers by Thursday morning, though unseasonably cold temperatures will remain. Periodic disturbances in northerly flow will bring a chance of scattered snow showers through the week. Weather Monday Night Tuesday Tuesday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 20-25 -3 to 2 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 15-25 15-25 Wind Direction W W WNW Sky Cover Mostly Clear Increasing Overcast Snow(in) 0 0-2 PM 2-5 Snowpack Discussion Observers have gushed about the conditions in the Steamboat Zone over the past several days, where roughly 3 feet of fluff fell in the last storm. Temps have remained cold enough for powder to stay fresh, while warming enough to allow for some settlement in the new snow layers. The main avalanche concern today is the strength of the interface between the old snow surface and all that new snow that fell over the weekend. We still have concerns with the lowest portion of the snowpack as well. Though it will take a large load to create a failure in the basal facets, if initiated, slides will be big. Observers have noted few signs of instability on lower angled terrain. With clearing weather, backcountry travelers may venture up into higher, more exposed terrain. Windloaded lee and cross loaded slopes are the most likely place to trigger an avalanche today. Winds have predominately blown out of the northwest, moving snow to east, southeast and south aspects. Windslabs can be quite soft and feel like powder, but can become destructive slides once all that snow starts moving down the mountain. Gradually work onto steeper and more exposed slopes as you get a feel for the snowpack and weak layers. Reevaluate the new snow often, as instabilities may be localized. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Steamboat Zone is MODERATE on all aspects and elevations. Continue to watch for steep slopes with windloaded snow. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [57]caic@qwest.net. Vail ==== Current Keywords: MODERATE, avalanche danger, avalanche paths, cold front, cross loaded, crown, density, facets, high pressure, human triggered, natural, natural avalanches, naturally, path, precipitation , slabs, wind drifts, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 1/14/2008 7:01:01 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis Our window of high pressure continues tonight, bringing mostly clear skies and mild conditions statewide. The next weather system moves into the region late Tuesday afternoon. An arctic cold front will dig southward from Canada bringing frigid temperatures and another round of light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. This polar continental airmass is not very moist so accumulations should be on the light side. The snow that falls will be very low density, goose feathers. Precipitation tapers by Thursday morning, though unseasonably cold temperatures will remain. Periodic disturbances in northerly flow will bring a chance of scattered snow showers through the week. Weather Monday Monday Night Tuesday Temperature(°F) 15-20 2-7 17-22 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 15-25 15-25 Wind Direction NNW W W Sky Cover Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0-1 PM Snowpack Discussion A preliminary report of the fatal avalanche that occurred in the East Vail area Saturday morning is now posted in our Accidents section on our web site. An observer in the Francie's Cabin area on Sunday noted very tender conditions near treeline, where his party remotely triggered a slide on an ESE aspect. Several observers noted the 2 large fresh slides in the SSE to SSW facing Uneva bowl off Vail Pass on Sunday. We initially though it slid naturally as no tracks were seen leading into the slide. We have since learned that skiers remotely triggered the slides from a low angled ridge some 150 meters away. The crown cracked up to 6 feet deep, 2000 feet wide and ran to the ground in most areas. Many trees were destroyed and golf cart size blocks of snow were in the debris field. Our long time observer noted how infrequently he has seen this path slide and was surprised at how big it ran. Let this serve as a reminder of the touchy conditions that can be found out there today. There were three skier triggered avalanches on Loveland Pass Saturday afternoon as well. All were on southerly aspects above treeline, about 3 feet deep, 100-300 feet wide, running 200-400 vertical feet. One person was completely buried in one of these slides, though companions were able to dig the victim out. Luckily, they suffered only minor injuries. Observers reported both natural and human triggered slides on the western side of the zone as well. Some were quite large and ran in areas that infrequently slide. Recent avalanche activity has predominately occurred on north, northeast, east, southeast and south aspects at all elevations. Wind affected snow and more reactive slabs can be found on these lee aspects in near and above treeline areas as well as in exposed areas below treeline. Watch for cross loaded terrain features as well. Many hard slabs from our last ferocious wind event are now covered by softer snow. Poke around and dig down into the snowpack before committing to avalanche terrain. Old slabs have the potential to run to the ground on weak basal facets. Faceted grains near the ground have been growing larger and weaker every day, but their distribution is patchy and their strength inconsistent. This makes for a tricky, highly variable avalanche problem. We would like to remind everyone about the seriousness of game we play out there. It is possible to safely ski and ride in the backcountry today, but please consider the consequences of your decisions and actions. Stick with mellow terrain and be aware of both large avalanche paths and smaller terrain features as human triggered slides remain possible to probable today. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Vail Summit Zone is CONSDIERABLE on north, northeast east, southeast, and south aspects at all elevations. Human triggered avalanches are probable, and natural avalanches possible. New snow and strong winds have created fresh wind drifts and slabs, and some avalanches are running to the ground. On west and northwest aspects all elevations the danger is MODERATE.