Aspen ===== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, Human triggered avalanches, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross loading, faceted, high pressure, human triggered, slab, slabs, sugary, surface hoar, weak layer, wind loaded, wind loading, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 1/22/2008 6:49:21 AM Forecaster: Brian McCall Weather Synopsis A very weak short wave will push across northeast Colorado early Wednesday in northwest flow. As a result, strong winds will develop over and east of the Continental Divide and periods of light snow may develop after midnight on northwest facing slopes of the northern and central mountains, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Northwest flow on Wednesday will eventually give way to a high pressure ridge with more abundant afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will moderate and winds shift to southwest by Thursday. The next storm system approaches from the southwest on Thursday. Expect snow to start in the San Juan Mountains Thursday afternoon and then spread across remaining mountain locations by Friday morning. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 10-15 -2 to 3 10-15 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G40 15-25 G35 15-25 Wind Direction W W W Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-Trace 0-1 0-Trace Snowpack Discussion Most areas of the Aspen Zone have picked up 2-3" of new snow during the last 24 hours. Schofield was the exception with 5" of new snow showing up on the Snotel site there. Moderate to strong winds out of the South and Southwest accompanied this storm and transported plenty of snow near and above treeline. Newly formed wind slabs in the upper snowpack will be your greatest concern for avalanche activity near and above treeline today. Those strong S and SW winds have loaded slopes facing N-NE-E-SE with some fresh wind slabs. On many of these easterly aspects you can find a thin layer of surface hoar or small, "sugary", faceted snow grains under the wind slabs that will make them very sensitive and easy to trigger. Natural avalanches will be possible and human triggered ones probable in these wind loaded areas today. Paths that saw avalanche activity earlier this month have been reloaded with wind deposited snow and may be ripe for avalanche activity again. Slopes facing North through East through Southeast will be the most suspect for avalanche activity. One exception to this will be the terrain around the Castle and Maroon Creek valleys. When we get winds out of the south like yesterday, expect to find pockets of cross loading on the western aspects as well due to the north/south orientation of the ridgelines in these valleys. Winds are forecasted to shift to the west today and remain strong enough to move snow. As we have been discussing for a couple of weeks now, you must continue to consider deep slab instabilities. Most of the avalanche activity you see today will be in the upper snowpack but avalanches do have to potential to step down into deeper weaknesses. Strong over weak layering can be found in the middle and lower parts of our snowpack. That strong layer does support the weight of a backcountry traveler on many slopes. The big concern is that this layer is just a weak bridge over some instabilities in the lower snowpack. Hit a spot where that bridge is a bit thinner and weaker and you could trigger a large avalanche. It is a typical Colorado continental snowpack full of hidden weakness. Good travel habits, route selection, and a deep respect for the consequences of an avalanche are truly necessary for safe mountain travel in the Aspen zone. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on north, northeast, east, and southeast aspects near and above treeline. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered slides are probable. Recent wind loading has created some tender slabs in the upper snowpack on these easterly aspects that you will need to pay close attention to. The avalanche danger on all other aspects near and above treeline and all slopes below treeline is MODERATE. Human triggered avalanches are still possible on these slopes as well. The CAIC Aspen office needs your backcountry avalanche, weather, or snowpack observations. These are a great help to our forecasters. Please drop us an e-mail at caic@qwest.net with anything you are seeing in the backcountry. Front Range =========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross load, drifts, facets, high pressure, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, shears, slab, slabs, test slopes, weak layers, wind slab, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/22/2008 6:13:32 AM Forecaster: John Snook Weather Synopsis A very weak short wave will push across northeast Colorado early Wednesday in northwest flow. As a result, strong winds will develop over and east of the Continental Divide and periods of light snow may develop after midnight on northwest facing slopes of the northern and central mountains, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Northwest flow on Wednesday will eventually give way to a high pressure ridge with more abundant afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will moderate and winds shift to southwest by Thursday. The next storm system approaches from the southwest on Thursday. Expect snow to start in the San Juan Mountains Thursday afternoon and then spread across remaining mountain locations by Friday morning. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 10-15 0-5 10-15 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G45 15-25 G50 15-25 G55 Wind Direction W W W Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0-1 0-Trace Snowpack Discussion Reports of slide activity have slowed during the past few days. The most recent reported slide was on Saturday - human triggered from the Berthoud Pass area on a NNE aspect near to just above treeline in an area of shallower snow around rock bands. An observer on Friday near Eldora ski area found plenty of hard slabs near treeline on north to northeast aspects. Some of these were hollow and drum-like. Recent storm snow and wind slabs were reactive with some propagating cracks and drifts moving easily, but test slopes were otherwise stubborn. Below treeline, about 16-18" of soft snow was noted on top of a 2-3" wind slab and facets underneath to the ground. The same observer on Saturday noted similar conditions near Berthoud Pass expect the base layer contained more fully developed facets. Another observer on Monday on Stanley Ridge near Berthoud Pass found a 2' base layer of facets, topped by an 8" layer of uncohesive 4-finger snow, and a 8" hard slab on top with easy shears between the top two layers. Winter Park ski resort reported 3.5" of new snow Tuesday morning. Wind speeds continue to be strong, especially along and east of the Continental Divide. Westerly winds are adding shallow slabs onto easterly aspects and cross load northerly and southerly facing terrain features. You could trigger a recently developed wind slab on steep exposed north through east through south facing slopes. As we have been discussing for a couple of weeks now, you must continue to consider deep slab instabilities. The troublesome hard slab over weak snow combination can be found on northeast, east, southeast, south, through southwest aspects. You are most likely to release a deep slab slide by finding a weak spot in the hard cover. These instabilities may be localized and are more common near rock outcroppings, downed timber, and cliff bands. Thin weak layers combined with hard slabs are notorious for propagating fractures long distances. Remote triggering of slides is a common result with this type of snowpack, either from the top of the slope, or from anywhere below where we would usually expect the fracture to start. It is a typical Colorado continental snowpack full of hidden weakness. Good habits and a deep respect for consequences are truly necessary for safe mountain travel in the Front Range zone. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on northeast, east, southeast, and south aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable in these areas. Elsewhere and below treeline the danger is MODERATE. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cornice, facet, faceted, high pressure, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, lee , natural, shears, slabby, snowpit, wind slabs, wind-loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 1/22/2008 6:14:50 AM Forecaster: John Snook Weather Synopsis A very weak short wave will push across northeast Colorado early Wednesday in northwest flow. As a result, strong winds will develop over and east of the Continental Divide and periods of light snow may develop after midnight on northwest facing slopes of the northern and central mountains, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Northwest flow on Wednesday will eventually give way to a high pressure ridge with more abundant afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will moderate and winds shift to southwest by Thursday. The next storm system approaches from the southwest on Thursday. Expect snow to start in the San Juan Mountains Thursday afternoon and then spread across remaining mountain locations by Friday morning. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 15-20 5-10 17-22 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 0-10 Wind Direction WSW W W Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Our observer on Grand Mesa indicated that light snow was falling Monday afternoon. Moderate southwest winds were transporting snow to lee aspects. The wind has created a slabby snow surface in exposed areas. A snowpit on the north side of the mesa showed a 62" depth with 1-finger hardness through much of the pack. A thin faceted layer was noted about 18" below the snow surface. Instability tests showed moderate to hard results with clean shears on the buried facet layer. Another observer on the south side of the Mesa noted some unusual results. On the Radio Tower Loop north of Paonia a cornice has developed on a north-south oriented ridge at 8500'. A natural cornice drop started a slide on an ESE aspect - 1' x 25' x 40'. Several remote skier triggered cornice drops were notes as well. Human triggered slides within the upper portions of the snowpack remain possible on steep exposed slopes especially where wind slabs have developed. You should avoid traveling on steep slopes with concave wind pillows sitting near the top. Traveling underneath these same areas should also be avoided as you could trigger these pillows from below. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Grand Mesa zone is MODERATE on north, northeast, east, southeast, and south aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are possible, especially on wind-loaded slopes 35 degrees and steeper. The danger is LOW on other near and above treeline aspects and all aspects below treeline. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross loaded, crown, facets, high pressure, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, lee , natural, slabs, start zone, wind slab, wind slabs, windslab, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 1/22/2008 6:16:18 AM Forecaster: John Snook Weather Synopsis A very weak short wave will push across northeast Colorado early Wednesday in northwest flow. As a result, strong winds will develop over and east of the Continental Divide and periods of light snow may develop after midnight on northwest facing slopes of the northern and central mountains, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Northwest flow on Wednesday will eventually give way to a high pressure ridge with more abundant afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will moderate and winds shift to southwest by Thursday. The next storm system approaches from the southwest on Thursday. Expect snow to start in the San Juan Mountains Thursday afternoon and then spread across remaining mountain locations by Friday morning. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 13-18 0-5 13-18 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction W SW W Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Very strong winds on Monday from the south to southwest have pushed a new snow load onto lee northerly aspects and have filled in cross loaded terrain features on westerly and easterly aspects. Several observers noted new slide activity on Monday. A skier triggered slide occurred on a NNE aspect of Yellow Mountain, near Ophir, at 12,500' - a hard windslab with an 18" crown and 75' wide. It cleared the entire start zone but did not step down below the recently developed windslab. Two other natural slides also from the Ophir area - Chapman Gulch, WSW aspect from 12,400' and N aspect on Yellow Mountain from 12,500' - both fresh windslabs cutting out. Several natural slides were reported along Red Mountain Pass. All involved cross loaded terrain features on west and east aspects mostly near and below treeline. The slides were confined to the upper layer wind slab generally 1' deep or less and not more than 30' wide. The primary avalanche concern is in the upper layers of the snowpack. Recent cold temperatures have created a layer of near surface facets. Now wind slabs are forming on top of this cohesionless layer. Before committing to a steep slope, you should evaluate how well the upper layers are bonding and consider the consequences should even a small slide develop. Human triggered slides are probable near and above treeline on steep exposed slopes where new wind slabs have developed. Avalanche Danger Near and above treeline, the avalanche danger for the Northern San Juan zone is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects - human triggered avalanches are probable on slopes 35 degrees and steeper. Below treeline, the danger is MODERATE on all aspects - unstable slabs and human-triggered avalanches are possible, particularly on steep, convex slopes. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross loaded, drifts, explosive, facets, high pressure, human triggered, lee , natural, settled, slab, weak layer, weak layers, wind slab, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 1/22/2008 6:17:52 AM Forecaster: John Snook Weather Synopsis A very weak short wave will push across northeast Colorado early Wednesday in northwest flow. As a result, strong winds will develop over and east of the Continental Divide and periods of light snow may develop after midnight on northwest facing slopes of the northern and central mountains, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Northwest flow on Wednesday will eventually give way to a high pressure ridge with more abundant afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will moderate and winds shift to southwest by Thursday. The next storm system approaches from the southwest on Thursday. Expect snow to start in the San Juan Mountains Thursday afternoon and then spread across remaining mountain locations by Friday morning. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 17-22 5-10 18-23 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction SW SSW SW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion We have not received reports of any slide activity from the Wolf Creek Pass area for over a week now. The snowpack in this area has settled and gained strength. Less than an inch of new snow was reported Tuesday morning near Wolf Creek Pass. Moderate wind speeds from the south and southwest likely moved snow onto lee northerly aspects and cross loaded terrain features on westerly and easterly aspects. Steep, exposed slopes on these aspects near and above treeline are the most suspect terrain for human triggered slides within recently developed wind slabs. Before committing to a steep slope, you should evaluate how well the upper layers are bonding and consider the consequences should even a small slide develop. Observers along the Highway 550 corridor north of Durango to Silverton have noted more weak layers and resultant activity. The snowpack is somewhat shallower here and winds have created more noticeable hard wind slabs. An explosive triggered slide on Thursday released a good sized soft slab on a south aspect above treeline north of Durango Mountain Resort. Closer to Red Mountain Pass on Monday, a number of smaller natural slides occurred on west and east facing aspects all within a recently developed wind slab. Recent cold temperatures have created a layer of near surface facets. Now wind slabs are forming on top of this cohesionless layer. You need to be careful in this part of the zone where fresh wind slabs have formed on steep exposed slopes. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is overall MODERATE near and above treeline. Human triggered slides are possible on steep exposed slopes where fresh wind slabs have developed on many aspects. In the Wolf Creek Pass area, the danger is LOW below treeline. North of Durango along the Highway 550 corridor, the danger is MODERATE below treeline on west-north-east aspects where the snowpack is shallower and fresh wind drifts may be forming on a weak layer of near surface facets. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross loaded, faceted, facets, high pressure, human triggered, lee , slab, wind drifted, wind loaded, wind slabs, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 1/22/2008 6:18:10 AM Forecaster: John Snook Weather Synopsis A very weak short wave will push across northeast Colorado early Wednesday in northwest flow. As a result, strong winds will develop over and east of the Continental Divide and periods of light snow may develop after midnight on northwest facing slopes of the northern and central mountains, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Northwest flow on Wednesday will eventually give way to a high pressure ridge with more abundant afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will moderate and winds shift to southwest by Thursday. The next storm system approaches from the southwest on Thursday. Expect snow to start in the San Juan Mountains Thursday afternoon and then spread across remaining mountain locations by Friday morning. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 17-22 5-10 18-23 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 15-25 15-25 Wind Direction WSW SW WSW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Our forecasters were in the Sangres a little over a week ago. They found an above treeline snowpack comprised largely of stiff hard windslabs resting on weak faceted layers or the snow was missing all together where winds have transported it onto lee terrain. The most suspect slopes are wind drifted and cross loaded north through east through south aspects. An observer in the Sangres of New Mexico found two layers of facets in test pits below treeline. Each layer was about 1' deep with larger facets in the base layer and smaller facets in the upper layer. The Sangres have a relatively shallow snowpack. The primary concern in neighboring zones with shallow snowpacks is deep slab instabilities. These instabilities may be localized. The stiff wind slabs will hold your weight in many areas, but you can breakthrough on weak spots especially near cliffs, rock outcroppings and vegetation. If you do trigger a slide from a weak spot, it could cause the entire snowpack to slide creating a large avalanche. As you travel, constantly reevaluate the snowpack for signs of these instabilities. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Sangre de Cristo Zone is CONSIDERABLE near and above treeline on NE-E-SE-SW aspects and MODERATE near and below treeline on the other aspects, W-NW-N. Human triggered slides are possible to probable today. Carefully evaluate steep wind loaded slopes. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross load, cross-loaded, faceted, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, natural, slab, slabs, sugar snow, weak layers, wind loaded, wind slab, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/22/2008 6:19:12 AM Forecaster: Brad Sawtell Weather Synopsis A very weak short wave will push across northeast Colorado early Wednesday in northwest flow. As a result, strong winds will develop over and east of the Continental Divide and periods of light snow may develop after midnight on northwest facing slopes of the northern and central mountains, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Northwest flow on Wednesday will eventually give way to a high pressure ridge with more abundant afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will moderate and winds shift to southwest by Thursday. The next storm system approaches from the southwest on Thursday. Expect snow to start in the San Juan Mountains Thursday afternoon and then spread across remaining mountain locations by Friday morning. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 12-17 0-5 13-18 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G35 15-25 15-25 Wind Direction W W W Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0-1 0-Trace Snowpack Discussion Reports of slide activity have slowed during the past few days. The most recent reported slide was on Sunday - a human triggered soft slab on an east aspect just above treeline near Monarch Pass. Another report of a larger sized natural slab avalanche occurred in the same area but on a NE aspect. We suspect it occurred on Sunday as well. A little new snow and moderate wind speeds remain in the forecast. The westerly winds will continue to add shallow slabs onto easterly aspects and cross load northerly and southerly facing terrain features. You could trigger a recently developed wind slab on steep exposed north through east through south facing slopes. In addition to the newly formed soft slabs on the surface, you must keep the concept of deep slab instabilities as the main concern, for it is here to stay for most of the winter. The troublesome hard slab over weak snow combination can be found on north, east, south, through southwest aspects. You are most likely to trigger a deep slab avalanche by finding a thin spot in the hard slab itself. Beneath the hard slab is weak faceted grained sugar snow. These instabilities may be localized and are more common near rock outcroppings, downed timber, and cliff bands. Thin weak layers combined with hard slabs are notorious for propagating fractures long distances. Remote triggering of slides is a common result with this type of snowpack, either from the top of the slope, or from anywhere below where we would usually expect the fracture to start. It is a typical Colorado continental snowpack full of hidden weakness. Good habits and an honest respect for consequences are truly necessary for safe mountain travel in the Sawatch zone. Avalanches do not care how good of a rider you are and especially do not care if you are a local. You may be an expert but ask yourself honestly how good are you at putting all of the pieces together and making route choices? Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Sawatch Zone includes pockets of CONSIDERABLE on steep wind loaded and cross-loaded slopes on northeast, through southeast and south aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable in these areas. On other aspects near and above treeline the danger is MODERATE. Below treeline, the danger is LOW on all aspects. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross loaded, high pressure, settle, slabs, weak layers, wind loaded, wind loading, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 1/22/2008 6:13:12 AM Forecaster: John Snook Weather Synopsis A very weak short wave will push across northeast Colorado early Wednesday in northwest flow. As a result, strong winds will develop over and east of the Continental Divide and periods of light snow may develop after midnight on northwest facing slopes of the northern and central mountains, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Northwest flow on Wednesday will eventually give way to a high pressure ridge with more abundant afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will moderate and winds shift to southwest by Thursday. The next storm system approaches from the southwest on Thursday. Expect snow to start in the San Juan Mountains Thursday afternoon and then spread across remaining mountain locations by Friday morning. Weather Tuesday Night Wednesday Wednesday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 -2 to 3 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 15-25 10-20 Wind Direction W W W Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-Trace 0-1 0-Trace Snowpack Discussion We have not received any reports of avalanche activity from the Steamboat zone for more than a week now. An observer on the south side of Buffalo Pass on Sunday indicated that last week's weather got warm enough to help the snowpack settle. Recent storm snow and wind loading remain the primary concerns. Wind directions have varied from north, and then more recently from south to west. Moderate wind speeds on Monday were strong enough to transport snow to lee aspects. Automated weather stations suggest 3-5" of new snow has fallen since Monday morning. You will need to watch for fresh wind slabs and cross loaded terrain features on north through east through south aspects. Gradually work onto steeper and more exposed slopes as you get a feel for the snowpack and weak layers. Reevaluate the snow often, as instabilities may be localized. Before committing to a steep slope, you should evaluate how well the upper layers are bonding and consider the consequences should even a small slide develop. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Steamboat Zone is MODERATE on all aspects near and above treeline. It is LOW well below treeline. Human triggered avalanches are possible on steep slopes. Continue to watch for steep slopes with wind loaded snow. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [57]caic@qwest.net. Vail ==== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross load, cross loaded, faceted, faceting, high pressure, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, natural, natural avalanches, slab, slabs, sugar snow, weak layer, weak layers, wind slab, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 1/22/2008 6:15:16 AM Forecaster: Brad Sawtell Weather Synopsis A very weak short wave will push across northeast Colorado early Wednesday in northwest flow. As a result, strong winds will develop over and east of the Continental Divide and periods of light snow may develop after midnight on northwest facing slopes of the northern and central mountains, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Northwest flow on Wednesday will eventually give way to a high pressure ridge with more abundant afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will moderate and winds shift to southwest by Thursday. The next storm system approaches from the southwest on Thursday. Expect snow to start in the San Juan Mountains Thursday afternoon and then spread across remaining mountain locations by Friday morning. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 10-15 -2 to 3 8-13 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G40 15-25 G40 15-25 G40 Wind Direction W W W Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-Trace 0-1 0-Trace Snowpack Discussion Reports of slide activity have slowed during the past few days. The most recent reported slides occurred yesterday near Vail Pass. Two human triggered slides occurred on Ptarmigan Peak. Witnesses of both of the triggered slides voiced concers that the skier and snowboarder exhibited very poor terrain choices. These occurred above tree line, on a south aspect as well as a north east aspect. Another human triggered slide occurred in the same vicinity above Black Lakes. This was a snowmobile triggered slide. In the Coral Creek drainage on the other side of the interstate, natural activity was spotted on both north and south aspects below tree line. Most other slides during the past week started near or above treeline on east to south to southwest aspects. New snow totals around the zone are in the 1 to 3 inch range. The westerly winds will continue to add shallow slabs onto easterly aspects and cross load northerly and southerly facing terrain features. You could trigger a recently developed wind slab on steep exposed north through east through south facing slopes. Temperatures will remain cold so expect surface faceting to continue, forming another weak layer for future snowfall to fail on. In addition to the newly formed soft slabs on the surface, you must keep the concept of deep slab instabilities as the main concern, for it is here to stay for most of the winter. The troublesome hard slab over weak snow combination can be found on north, east, south, through southwest aspects. You are most likely to trigger a deep slab slide by finding a thin spot in the hard slab itself. Beneath the hard slab is weak faceted grained sugar snow. These instabilities may be localized and are more common near rock outcroppings, downed timber, and cliff bands. Thin weak layers combined with hard slabs are notorious for propagating fractures long distances. Remote triggering of slides is a common result with this type of snowpack, either from the top of the slope, or from anywhere below where we would usually expect the fracture to start. It is a typical Colorado continental snowpack full of hidden weakness. Good habits and an honest respect for consequences are truly necessary for safe mountain travel in the Vail-Summit zone. Avalanches do not care how good of a rider you are and especially do not care if you are a local. You may be an expert but ask yourself honestly how good are you at putting all of the pieces together and making route choices? Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Vail-Summit Zone is MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on slopes steeper than 34 degrees that have been wind loaded or cross loaded facing north, through east, through south, and southwest aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable, and natural avalanches possible in these areas. On west and northwest aspects above treeline the danger is LOW as winds have stripped most snow off these aspects. At and below treeline the danger is MODERATE on all aspects.