Aspen ===== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, HIGH, MODERATE, avalanche danger, convective, crown, natural, natural avalanches, slab, slabs, trough, weak layers, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Avalanche Watch in Effect through 2/4/2008 8:00:00 AM Forecast Issued on 2/3/2008 6:33:02 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A significant winter storm will bring widespread snow to the state today through early Tuesday. Current observations indicate that the storm is loosing a bit of steam though heavy snowfall is still expected. Snow began early this morning in the San Juans with moisture spreading north and east this afternoon. The focus will slowly shift to the Central and Northern Mountains overnight Sunday as a the trough slides east. Highly unstable air will create convective shower bands, bringing periods of heavy snow and even the possibility of thunder. Expect persistent strong winds in the high country tonight, with speeds easing significantly on Monday morning as they veer to the northwest. Periods of light snow will continue in the mountains for much of Monday night before drier air moves in Tuesday. A weak system, bringing another chance of mountains snow, looks to move in by Wednesday afternoon. Weather Sunday Sunday Night Monday Temperature(°F) 10-15 3-8 7-12 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 15-25 5-15 Wind Direction SW SW WNW Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 4-7 6-9 3-6 Snowpack Discussion Snow continues to add up in the Aspen Zone with up to a half a foot of fresh in the last couple days and more on the way. Look for changing conditions today as the next in our series of storms rolls through. Avalanche activity continues to be reported to the office, though nothing new on Saturday. On Friday there were three separate snowboarder triggered avalanches reported from the Richmond Ridge area. These occurred on a NW aspect below treeline just north of the Annie's Face. Although these were small avalanches, they are a good indication of some the unstable layers that can be found in the upper snowpack. On Thursday, a skier triggered an avalanche on a SW aspect of Ophir Gully at 10,000 ft. This area is just outside the Aspen Mtn boundaries. It was triggered by the 3rd skier into the slope but no one was caught. The crown of the avalanche varied from 8 inches to 2 ft deep. There have been several other reports of larger natural avalanches this week. Most have occurred near or above treeline on wind loaded N-NE-E-SE aspects. These aspects have been the most active though avalanches have occurred on all slopes in the last few days. New snow, cold temperatures, and wind strong enough to transport this new snow are going to keep our snowpack tender and ripe for some avalanche activity. With persistent loading, natural avalanches remain possible on most aspects and elevations. Wind loaded slopes facing north through east through south near and above treeline will continue to see the most avalanche activity. Nearly all of the avalanches observed this week have been failing below the storm snow and wind deposited slabs that fell last weekend. This snow fell on a variety of weak layers in the upper snowpack that continue to be sensitive to triggering. So far we have not seen many avalanches step down to older weak layers, but they are still lurking well below the snow surface. Another storm lined up for Sunday and Monday may awaken these deep slab instabilities. The avalanche danger will rise Sunday into Sunday night with the incoming storm. Look for changing conditions and choose your terrain wisely if traveling in the backcountry. We have posted a watch for the Aspen Zone in anticipation of the incoming storm. Look for changing conditions and rising danger in the backcountry and plan accordingly. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger will rise to HIGH on north, northeast, east and southeast aspects today if the upper end of forecasted snow amounts is met or exceeded. The avalanche danger in the Aspen zone is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects near and above treeline today. Slopes facing N-E-S at these higher elevations continue to pick up more wind deposited snow. This increasing load will make them especially tender. Below treeline, the avalanche danger is an overall MODERATE. The CAIC Aspen office needs your backcountry avalanche, weather, and snowpack observations! During storm cycles like this, these observations are very valuable and our forecaster's legs and eyes can only cover so much terrain in one day! You can help out by emailing us at caic@qwest.net with anything you see out there today. Front Range =========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, convective, density, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, lee , powder , rutschblock, slab, slabs, sluffs, starting zones, trough, weak layers, whumpfing, wind loaded, wind slabs, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/3/2008 8:32:29 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A significant winter storm will bring widespread snow to the state today through early Tuesday. Current observations indicate that the storm is loosing a bit of steam though heavy snowfall is still expected. Snow began early this morning in the San Juans with moisture spreading north and east this afternoon. The focus will slowly shift to the Central and Northern Mountains overnight Sunday as a the trough slides east. Highly unstable air will create convective shower bands, bringing periods of heavy snow and even the possibility of thunder. Expect persistent strong winds in the high country tonight, with speeds easing significantly on Monday morning as they veer to the northwest. Periods of light snow will continue in the mountains for much of Monday night before drier air moves in Tuesday. A weak system, bringing another chance of mountains snow, looks to move in by Wednesday afternoon. Weather Sunday Sunday Night Monday Temperature(°F) 10-15 0-5 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G/40 15-25 G/50 10-20 Wind Direction WSW WSW WNW Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 0-3 1-4 2-4 Snowpack Discussion New has been slowly added to the snowpack over the past week, a few inches each day. On its own, the low density new snow is not much of a load, especially when applied slowly. Observers in the Berthoud Pass area on Saturday noted some loose sluffs in the new snow indicating that it is not bonding well to underlying snow. Moderate westerly winds, will easily transport new low density snow forming fresh slabs on lee aspects near and above treeline. These slabs in the upper snowpack continue to be our main avalanche concern. Observers in the Loveland Pass area on Saturday noted reactive windslabs in the new wind effected snow, with cracks propagating up to 75 feet on east and northeast aspects. Shooting cracks are an excellent indication of instability. Backcountry skiers in the Indian Peaks area triggered a small slab on a southeast aspect near treeline. Others in the area noted stiff slabs, low rutschblock scores and whumpfing. These area all good indications of snowpack instability. Look for them as you travel in the backcountry today. Several small slides ran on a southeast face above treeline with mitigation work in the Berthoud Pass area on Saturday. Slides broke in the old snow, roughly 1 foot deep, running 300 feet down slope before stopping. On Thursday observers reported a couple fresh avalanches in new windslabs on easterly aspects near Willow Creek Pass (western edge of the zone). Fresh snow and soft slabs will disguise hard slabs left behind from last weekend's windstorm, when strong winds formed hard slabs low in starting zones and in exposed areas below treeline. North through east to south aspects were all loaded. The hard slabs are deeper in the snowpack, and may not give you obvious warning signs, so dig around and check out the snow before committing to avalanche terrain. As a final reminder, slabs may still break deeply. The trickiest problem to assess is deep slab instabilities. To borrow a line from Monty Python, "he's not dead, he's restin'." The deep slab problem will not go away; it just becomes an infrequent problem. You may be able to ride over slabs repeatedly and not get them to move, or brush the sweet spot and trigger a monster. Deep slides are often triggered from shallower, weaker areas on the slope. Smaller slides may step down, triggering older weak layers as well. Human triggered avalanches remain probable on north through east through south aspects near and above treeline. More snow and wind is in the forecast through the weekend, so do not expect the avalanche danger to decrease. Remember that powder always looks good, so test it before you ride. Avalanche Danger Reactive wind slabs in the upper snowpack and deep slab instabilities continue to be the main concerns.The avalanche danger in the Front Range is CONSIDERABLE on north, northeast, east, southeast and south aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable on steep wind loaded slopes. Below treeline on north, northeast, east, southeast and south aspects the danger is MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger. You will find the pockets on steep slopes that are exposed or lightly treed, where windslabs formed early in the week. The danger is MODERATE on southwest, west, and northwest aspects at all elevations. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: avalanche cycle, avalanche danger, convective, cross loaded, density, drift, drifts, natural, slab, sluffing, starting zones, trough, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Avalanche Watch in Effect through 2/4/2008 8:00:00 AM Forecast Issued on 2/3/2008 6:37:22 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A significant winter storm will bring widespread snow to the state today through early Tuesday. Current observations indicate that the storm is loosing a bit of steam though heavy snowfall is still expected. Snow began early this morning in the San Juans with moisture spreading north and east this afternoon. The focus will slowly shift to the Central and Northern Mountains overnight Sunday as a the trough slides east. Highly unstable air will create convective shower bands, bringing periods of heavy snow and even the possibility of thunder. Expect persistent strong winds in the high country tonight, with speeds easing significantly on Monday morning as they veer to the northwest. Periods of light snow will continue in the mountains for much of Monday night before drier air moves in Tuesday. A weak system, bringing another chance of mountains snow, looks to move in by Wednesday afternoon. Weather Sunday Sunday Night Monday Temperature(°F) 15-20 7-12 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 0-10 5-15 0-10 Wind Direction SSW SW WNW Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 7-10 5-8 3-6 Snowpack Discussion We have posted a watch for the Grand Mesa Zone in anticipation of the incoming storm. Look for changing conditions in the backcountry and plan accordingly. The avalanche danger will rise today. Snow may be heavy at times. Rapid loading will initially cause sluffing in the upper layers on steeper terrain. As snow builds, the likelihood of slab avalanche will increase as well. Previous south to west winds were strong enough to drift snow past the usual starting zones and load it lower on slopes than is usual. Watch for windslabs, sensitive drifts and cross loaded areas on north to east to southeast aspects. Sunday's storm will rapidly raise the avalanche danger in the Grand Mesa area. Slides will likely occur at the old/recent snow interface. Recently deposited low density snow may serve as a week layer for the incoming load. Travel in steep areas is not recommended Sunday afternoon through early next week. A natural avalanche cycle will occur if forecast snow totals are met or exceeded. Always carry appropriate backcountry gear and use good travel protocols. Avoid being on or below steep slopes today. Avalanche Danger We have insufficient data to issue a danger rating for the Grand Mesa Zone. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: , CONSIDERABLE, HIGH, avalanche cycle, avalanche danger, collapsing, convective, crust, crusts, density, drifting, facet, faceted, lee , natural avalanche, point release, slab, slabs, trough, weak layer, weak layers, wind slabs, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Avalanche Watch in Effect through 2/4/2008 8:00:00 AM Forecast Issued on 2/3/2008 7:06:17 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A significant winter storm will bring widespread snow to the state today through early Tuesday. Current observations indicate that the storm is loosing a bit of steam though heavy snowfall is still expected. Snow began early this morning in the San Juans with moisture spreading north and east this afternoon. The focus will slowly shift to the Central and Northern Mountains overnight Sunday as a the trough slides east. Highly unstable air will create convective shower bands, bringing periods of heavy snow and even the possibility of thunder. Expect persistent strong winds in the high country tonight, with speeds easing significantly on Monday morning as they veer to the northwest. Periods of light snow will continue in the mountains for much of Monday night before drier air moves in Tuesday. A weak system, bringing another chance of mountains snow, looks to move in by Wednesday afternoon. Weather Sunday Sunday Night Monday Temperature(°F) 8-13 2-7 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 25-35 G/60 20-30 G/50 10-20 Wind Direction SSW SW SW->WNW Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 6-9 8-11 4-7 Snowpack Discussion The snow just keeps coming. Observers noted steady snow through the day on Saturday with modest accumulations on the Red Mountain Pass, and locally higher amounts in the Telluride area and the Southern San Juan. With rapid new load expected today, we have posted a Watch for the Northern San Juan Zone. Look for changing conditions and rising danger in the backcountry and plan accordingly today. Our main avalanche concern lies in the upper snowpack, where rapidly applied new snow will quickly overload weak layers. Several weak layers exist including crust/ facet sandwich on southerly aspects. Recent low density snow may act a a weak layer for incoming snow as well. A foot and a half of snow has fallen in the Northern San Juan since Thursday. Therefore, ample snow is available for wind distribution. Wind speeds perfect for transporting snow have been, and will continue to blow out of the south. Observers noted lots of drifting and several point releases in steep terrain in the 550 corridor on Saturday. The winds have been out of the north, west and now the south, priming a variety of lee aspects stacking yet another layer on our dynamic snowpack. With more wind and snow in the forecast, the tension in the snowpack will continue to rise. The most recent avalanche cycle has slowed, but not stopped all together. Does it feel like it is all blurring together to anyone else? Recent natural avalanche activity has not been widespread, but observers have noted at least some activity on a variety of terrain. Our primary area of concern remains in the upper snowpack, particularly on east to southeast to south aspects near and above treeline. These sun-affected slopes have a particularly complex stack of wind slabs sandwiched in with weak crusts and faceted snow. Northerly slopes are being loaded by southerly winds, so they too are a concern. Remember that once upper slabs fracture and release, they have the potential to step down and initiate slab released deeper within the snowpack. Some of these layers will be cohesive windslabs, which have the potential to propagate over long distances. As you travel in the backcountry, look for obvious signs of instability including recent avalanching, shooting cracks, collapsing and hollow sounds. Choose your terrain very wisely, only expose one rider at a time, and have escape routes planned. Look for changing conditions in the backcountry today and be prepared to alter your plans to stay safe. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is HIGH on north, northeast, east, southeast and south slopes in near and above treeline areas. It is CONSIDERABLE otherwise. Unstable slabs and human-triggered avalanches are likely to probable on steep slopes. Look for the danger to rise to HIGH on all aspects and elevations if the upper end of forecasted snow amounts is met or exceeded. We have issued a Watch for both the Southern and Northern San Juan in anticipation of a significant new load by Monday. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: HIGH, avalanche danger, convective, crust, density, facet, slabs, surface hoar, trough, weak layers, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Avalanche Watch in Effect through 2/4/2008 8:00:00 AM Forecast Issued on 2/3/2008 8:18:07 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A significant winter storm will bring widespread snow to the state today through early Tuesday. Current observations indicate that the storm is loosing a bit of steam though heavy snowfall is still expected. Snow began early this morning in the San Juans with moisture spreading north and east this afternoon. The focus will slowly shift to the Central and Northern Mountains overnight Sunday as a the trough slides east. Highly unstable air will create convective shower bands, bringing periods of heavy snow and even the possibility of thunder. Expect persistent strong winds in the high country tonight, with speeds easing significantly on Monday morning as they veer to the northwest. Periods of light snow will continue in the mountains for much of Monday night before drier air moves in Tuesday. A weak system, bringing another chance of mountains snow, looks to move in by Wednesday afternoon. Weather Sunday Sunday Night Monday Temperature(°F) 13-18 10-15 8-13 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G/50 15-25 G/50 10-20 Wind Direction SSW SSW SW Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 10-13 14-17 3-6 Snowpack Discussion The Southern San Juan has been getting pummeled with snow this year and it just keeps coming. The snowpack is 123 inches deep and counting. Wolf Creek Pass received at least an additional 9 inches of snow in the past 24 hours, while Coal Bank Pass picked up and additional 12 inches. And the big storm is just starting! With rapid new load expected today, we have posted a Watch for the Southern San Juan Zone. Look for changing conditions and rising danger in the backcountry and plan accordingly today. Our main avalanche concern lies in the upper snowpack, where rapidly applied new snow will quickly overload weak layers. Several weak layers exist including crust/ facet sandwiches and surface hoar and recently deposited low density snow. These layers all serve as a poor foundation for incoming snow. Though not as likely at this point, slides initiated in the upper snowpack have the potential to step down to deeper layers as well. Moderate southwesterly winds continue to transport snow onto northeasterly aspects creating fresh soft slabs in exposed areas. Underneath the new slabs, the snowpack is slowly adjusting to the big load it received last week. The incoming storm will cause the avalanche danger to increase again. We have issued a Watch for both the Southern and Northern San Juan in anticipation of a rapid new load by Monday. Travel on or below steep terrain is not recommended as the snow accumulates. Avalanche Danger With anticipated pronlonged heavy snow through Monday, the avalanche danger will rise to HIGH on all aspects and elevations in the Southern San Juan today. Unstable slabs are likely. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: avalanche danger, convective, dense, drifted, lee , trough, wind loaded, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 2/3/2008 6:39:58 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A significant winter storm will bring widespread snow to the state today through early Tuesday. Current observations indicate that the storm is loosing a bit of steam though heavy snowfall is still expected. Snow began early this morning in the San Juans with moisture spreading north and east this afternoon. The focus will slowly shift to the Central and Northern Mountains overnight Sunday as a the trough slides east. Highly unstable air will create convective shower bands, bringing periods of heavy snow and even the possibility of thunder. Expect persistent strong winds in the high country tonight, with speeds easing significantly on Monday morning as they veer to the northwest. Periods of light snow will continue in the mountains for much of Monday night before drier air moves in Tuesday. A weak system, bringing another chance of mountains snow, looks to move in by Wednesday afternoon. Weather Sunday Sunday Night Monday Temperature(°F) 13-18 5-10 7-12 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 15-25 10-20 Wind Direction SSW SW W Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-2 2-5 1-4 Snowpack Discussion The Sangres may get a good bit of moisture out of the incoming storm. The range has missed the bulk of the moisture from recent storms, though got more than its share of wind. Persistent and gusty winds have battered the range, redistributing snow onto lee slopes. Expect north through east through southerly aspects to be loaded and drifted. The Sangres have a relatively shallow snowpack, capped by a variety of dense windslabs. Sunday's storm may rapidly raise the avalanche danger in the Sangres, as new snow will likely not bond well to old hard snow surfaces. Slides that initiate in the upper snowpack have the potential to break down to weak basal layers. Travel is not recommended in steep terrain as the snow piles up. As always, we really like to get observations, even if it is just cloud cover and new snow from the valley floors. Avalanche Danger We have insufficient information to issue an avalanche danger for the Sangre De Christo zone. Carefully evaluate steep wind loaded slopes and be very aware of changing conditions. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, HIGH, avalanche danger, convective, cross loaded, human triggered avalanches, slab, slabs, trough, wind transport, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Avalanche Watch in Effect through 2/4/2008 8:00:00 AM Forecast Issued on 2/3/2008 7:31:09 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A significant winter storm will bring widespread snow to the state today through early Tuesday. Current observations indicate that the storm is loosing a bit of steam though heavy snowfall is still expected. Snow began early this morning in the San Juans with moisture spreading north and east this afternoon. The focus will slowly shift to the Central and Northern Mountains overnight Sunday as a the trough slides east. Highly unstable air will create convective shower bands, bringing periods of heavy snow and even the possibility of thunder. Expect persistent strong winds in the high country tonight, with speeds easing significantly on Monday morning as they veer to the northwest. Periods of light snow will continue in the mountains for much of Monday night before drier air moves in Tuesday. A weak system, bringing another chance of mountains snow, looks to move in by Wednesday afternoon. Weather Sunday Sunday Night Monday Temperature(°F) 10-15 3-8 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 15-25 10-20 Wind Direction SW WSW W Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 5-8 6-9 2-4 Snowpack Discussion Up to 16 inches of new snow fell on Monarch Pass over the past 24 hours. A forecaster in the area on Saturday noted loose snow avalanches, but no fresh slabs. Westerly winds strong enough to transport ample available snow, are creating fresh slabs on easterly aspects. While not reactive on Saturday, continued wind and more new snow will continue to stiffen upper layers creating more sensitive conditions. Winds earlier in the week blew from the south, west, and north, leaving soft slabs on most aspects near and above treeline. You will find fresh slabs below ridges and on cross loaded terrain features facing north, northeast, east, southeast and south. Look for slabs further down the slope than usual as well as below treeline. Dig down to get a feel for the depth and distribution of slab layers. New snow may hide older slabs so dig down and get a feel for what you are traveling on. Pay close attention to cracking on the surface as it serves as a good indication that you are not only on a slab, but that the slab is capable of avalanching if the slope is steep enough to slide. The avalanche danger will be rise today with the incoming storm. Look for changing conditions and choose your terrain wisely if traveling in the backcountry. Be prepared to alter your plans as the snowpack is loaded. Avoid slopes steeper than 34 degrees, ride one at a time and have your escape route planned. Human triggered avalanches remain probable near and above treeline. Avalanche Danger With plenty of snow available for wind transport, ample incoming snow and strong southwest winds, we have raise the avalanche danger to HIGH on north, northeast, east, southeast and south slopes in near and above treeline areas. It is CONSIDERABLE otherwise. Unstable slabs and human-triggered avalanches are likely to probable on steep slopes. You may find unstable windslabs on steep slopes, even below treeline in open areas. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Your observations are very important to us! Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, convective, cross load, crossloaded, crown, crust, drift, drifted, human triggered, powder. , ski-cutting, slab, slabs, trough, windloaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Avalanche Watch in Effect through 2/4/2008 8:00:00 AM Forecast Issued on 2/3/2008 6:12:21 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A significant winter storm will bring widespread snow to the state today through early Tuesday. Current observations indicate that the storm is loosing a bit of steam though heavy snowfall is still expected. Snow began early this morning in the San Juans with moisture spreading north and east this afternoon. The focus will slowly shift to the Central and Northern Mountains overnight Sunday as a the trough slides east. Highly unstable air will create convective shower bands, bringing periods of heavy snow and even the possibility of thunder. Expect persistent strong winds in the high country tonight, with speeds easing significantly on Monday morning as they veer to the northwest. Periods of light snow will continue in the mountains for much of Monday night before drier air moves in Tuesday. A weak system, bringing another chance of mountains snow, looks to move in by Wednesday afternoon. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 15-20 7-12 12-18 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 10-20 5-15 Wind Direction SW WSW WNW Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 3-6 7-10 4-7 Snowpack Discussion We have posted a watch for the Steamboat Zone in anticipation of the incoming storm. Look for changing conditions in the backcountry and plan accordingly. The avalanche danger will rise if the high end of forecasted snow amounts is met or exceeded. Sadly, Colorado's fifth avalanche fatality occurred Friday in the southwestern Flat Tops. A snowmobiler triggered an avalanche on a steep slope, 2 feet deep, 400 feet wide and running 350 feet downhill. The slide is classified as a SS-AM-R4D2-O, running on a buried sun crust. CAIC forecasters went to the accident site Saturday. We will report details as they become available. Click here for the [57]preliminary report. A skier triggered avalanche Thursday in the Buffalo Pass area on a crossloaded southeast aspect around 10,600 feet. This soft slab broke 80 feet wide, running on a sun crust. The skier was ski-cutting a slope, when he triggered the slide from a spot where the upper slab thinned. The fracture propagated into deep drifted snow where the crown measured up to 4 feet deep (SS-ASc-R2D2-O). The slope angle was 33-35 degrees. With poor to no visibilty, observers cannot see fresh activity, though this doesn't mean nothing has happened. The main avalanche concern lies in the upper snowpack roughly 2 feet of fresh snow has fallen over the past few days. Winds have been just strong enough to drift and cross load snow near ridgelines and at high elevations. Over the past week winds have stacked slabs on north through east to southeast aspects. The older slabs are buried under powder. Remember that the snow surface can be deceiving, hiding weaker layers below. Though we have not seen deep slab avalanches in the Steamboat area this year, a slide triggered in the upper layers could step down to deeper layers. Choose your terrain carefully to avoid steep windloaded or crossloaded slopes. Expect the avalanche danger to rise by Sunday night with the incoming storm. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Steamboat Zone is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects and elevations. Human triggered slides are possible to probable today. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [58]caic@qwest.net. Vail ==== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, convective, crossloaded, density, human triggered avalanches, lee , powder. , slab, slabs, stress, trough, wind loading, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 2/3/2008 6:23:49 AM Forecaster: Ann Mellick Weather Synopsis A significant winter storm will bring widespread snow to the state today through early Tuesday. Current observations indicate that the storm is loosing a bit of steam though heavy snowfall is still expected. Snow began early this morning in the San Juans with moisture spreading north and east this afternoon. The focus will slowly shift to the Central and Northern Mountains overnight Sunday as a the trough slides east. Highly unstable air will create convective shower bands, bringing periods of heavy snow and even the possibility of thunder. Expect persistent strong winds in the high country tonight, with speeds easing significantly on Monday morning as they veer to the northwest. Periods of light snow will continue in the mountains for much of Monday night before drier air moves in Tuesday. A weak system, bringing another chance of mountains snow, looks to move in by Wednesday afternoon. Weather Sunday Sunday Night Monday Temperature(°F) 10-15 0-5 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 G/30s 15-25 G/40 5-15 Wind Direction SW WSW WNW Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 0-3 2-5 3-6 Snowpack Discussion New snow over the past several days has added up to about a foot and a half in many areas around the Vail/Summit Zone. Relatively slow loading over the past several days has been a generally good thing, not stressing the snowpack too much at one time. However, winds are the real architect of avalanches, redistributing low density snow in to lee areas. Recent activity in the Ten-Mile, Gore and Vail Pass areas could be directly linked to heavy wind loading. New snow, combined with past and present strong winds have created soft and hard slabs below ridges and on crossloaded terrain features facing north, northeast, east, southeast and south. Observers near A-Basin and in the East Vail Chutes on Saturday noted reactive windslabs in the new wind effected snow, with cracks propagating up to 75 feet on east and northeast aspects. Shooting cracks are an excellent indication of instability. Watch for these while traveling in the backcountry today as they serve as a good indicator that you are not only on a slab, but that you may trigger a slide. Skiers in the Vail area noted great skiing on low angled terrain west facing slopes with 10-12 inches of fresh powder. They found buried hard slabs hiding under new snow so stuck to mellow slopes. Choose your terrain wisely if traveling in the backcountry today. New snow may disguise older slabs so dig down and get a feel for what you are traveling on. Avoid slopes steeper than 34 degrees, ride one at a time and have your escape route planned. Human triggered avalanches remain probable on north through east through south aspects near and above treeline. More snow and wind is in the forecast through the weekend, so do not expect the avalanche danger to decrease. Remember that powder always looks good, so test it before you ride. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Vail-Summit Zone is CONSIDERABLE on north, northeast, east, southeast, and south aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable on steep slopes. The avalanche danger is MODERATE on other aspects above treeline and on all slopes below treeline. You may find unstable windslabs on steep slopes, even below treeline in open areas.