Aspen ===== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, gradient, high pressure, human triggered, natural avalanches, settle, slabs, stake, stresse, suncrusts, weak layers, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 2/5/2008 6:40:11 AM Forecaster: Brian McCall Weather Synopsis A dirty ridge of high pressure is building to the west of Colorado this afternoon. There is a fair amount of upper level moisture which will keep some high clouds over head for Tuesday night as the ridge moves over us. On Wednesday about mid-day the first in a series of weak and quick moving ripples in the northwest flow will bring a persistant threat for snowfall to the north and central zones of Colorado into Friday. There is a good chance these could also impact the northern San Juan zone. We do not expect any big snowfall amounts from any one storm system, with the possible exception of the Steamboat zone, but amounts look to add up to around 1-3 inches from each cycle. The bigger problem will be wind. A tight pressure gradient and strong winds are expected to develop tonight. They are gradually showing signs of increasing Tuesday afternoon. The two features, strong winds, and consistent snowfall, will likey bring an increase in the avalanche danger as the week moves along. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 12-17 -5 to 0 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 G20 12-22 G30 Wind Direction N NW WSW Sky Cover Decreasing Mostly Clear Increasing Snow(in) 0-1 0 1-3 Snowpack Discussion Our latest storm has dropped another 4-10" of new snow overnight in the Aspen Zone. Independence Pass picked up about 4", McClure and Schofield 6", and Aspen Mountain 5". Sunlight Mountain tops the snow list today with about 10" of new snow in the last 24 hours. Lighter snow accumulations each day since Saturday have added up to another significant load on our snowpack. Storm totals average 16-20" in most of the zone but the Marble and Schofield areas once again top the list with at least 27" falling since the weekend. Due to poor visibility, avalanche observations have been limited during the last few days. A few small avalanches yesterday did reached the road on McClure Pass causing it to close during the afternoon hours. Similar events occurred in the neighboring Grand Mesa zone. This most recent storm started with some strong S and SW winds on Sunday that formed slabs on East through North aspects in a matter of a couple hours that afternoon. These slabs are now buried under snow that fell yesterday with lighter winds and they will require some digging to asses their stability. The upper snowpack in the last couple weeks has become quite complicated with multiple layers of slabs and weak layers, especially near and above treeline. These upper layers will most likely be the first to fail in an avalanche but some deeper weak layers are being stressed by the new snow as well. In the right locations, triggered and natural avalanches may step down and fail in the middle or lower portions of the snowpack. Steep terrain is going to struggle with this load, especially when it has had so little time between storm cycles to settle and gain strength. That has been the story of the winter so far. Even south aspects are forming fewer suncrusts than we are used to seeing, and consequently the avalanche danger remains elevated even on aspects that would normally be relatively avalanche free this time of the year. We have had few reports of avalanche activity so far this month but the increasing load of new snow this week will make for some tender conditions in the backcountry again. We are close to the point of reaching a critical mass of new snow and any underlying weak layers may not support an additional load. For now, savvy backcountry riders can stay safe by looking at all avalanche and instability clues from the terrain, to recent weather and avalanche activity, the consequences of mistaken judgment, and group dynamics. Stick to lower angle slopes, use good protocol and the riding can be spectacular. Think like an avalanche, and your day should bring on a big smile. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects and elevations. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered ones probable on all slopes 30 degrees and steeper. Areas of higher avalanche danger are possible in the SW corner of the Aspen Zone where snow totals are over two feet since Sunday. Keep an eye out for these variable conditions that can change from one valley to the next. The snowpack is tender and will require a cautious approach to backcountry travel at this time. The CAIC Aspen office REALLY needs your backcountry avalanche, weather, or snowpack observations. These observations have been very limited at the office this year and are extremely valuable to our forecasts. If you are seeing avalanche activity anywhere, or at any time in this area, please help out by emailing caic@qwest.net. Front Range =========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, drifts, gradient, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, paths, shears, slab, snowpits, wind loaded, wind loading, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/5/2008 6:18:27 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis A dirty ridge of high pressure is building to the west of Colorado this afternoon. There is a fair amount of upper level moisture which will keep some high clouds over head for Tuesday night as the ridge moves over us. On Wednesday about mid-day the first in a series of weak and quick moving ripples in the northwest flow will bring a persistant threat for snowfall to the north and central zones of Colorado into Friday. There is a good chance these could also impact the northern San Juan zone. We do not expect any big snowfall amounts from any one storm system, with the possible exception of the Steamboat zone, but amounts look to add up to around 1-3 inches from each cycle. The bigger problem will be wind. A tight pressure gradient and strong winds are expected to develop tonight. They are gradually showing signs of increasing Tuesday afternoon. The two features, strong winds, and consistent snowfall, will likey bring an increase in the avalanche danger as the week moves along. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 4-9 -8 to -3 7-12 Wind Speed(mph) 8-18 G20 10-20 20-30 G40 Wind Direction N NNW WSW Sky Cover Decreasing Mostly Clear Increasing Snow(in) 0-2 0 Tr-2 Snowpack Discussion Skies will begin to clear a little later this morning as the current storm drifts eastward. A lucky day, as we do not see much in the way of winds. CDOT will be attempting some mitigation on a couple of the major paths this morning if they can get a helicopter up from Ft Collins. There will be some good testing going on. A few recent instability tests from the Pikes Peak portion of the Front Range zone showed easy and quick shears that were popping off. Observers further north in the zone were reporting a snowpack that seemed to be lacking energy. CDOT crews are getting anxious about some of the big paths along highway corridors. It remains a tricky snowpack, snowpits are not your only tool, look at terrain, signs of recent wind loading like convex rolls and also wind erosion of recent snow. Recent winds have eased at our remote weather stations, but terrain can create micro climates, keep those avalanche eyeballs open. An observation from Monday afternoon stated that...The probability of releasing a slide has decreased as the middle pack is quite hard and supportive. But the numerous layers with clean shears in the mid-pack are a concern. I have no doubt that if one hits the wrong spot at the wrong time, a large slab avalanche could be released. N-E-S aspects near and above treeline seem to be most prone to this possibility. Maybe the lower probability of triggering a slab warrants a MOD rating, but the consequences could be severe, and hence in my humble opinion, a rating of CON is warranted for these aspects and elevations.... Savy backcountry travelers will enjoy good riding, however, it can be difficult to remain sharp in familiar terrain. Try to avoid becoming complacent just because you have been on specific terrain throughout the year. It is a complicated and potentially dangerous snowpack across the entire western United States. We are on a big record pace for avalanche fatalities, that alone speaks for itself. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Front Range is CONSIDERABLE on north, northeast, east, southeast and south aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable on steep wind loaded slopes. Below treeline on north, northeast, east, southeast and south aspects the danger is MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger. Look for pockets on steep exposed slopes, where windslabs formed early in the week. The danger is MODERATE on southwest, west, and northwest aspects at all elevations. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, gradient, high pressure, human triggered, natural avalanche, natural avalanches, settle, slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 2/5/2008 4:20:14 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis A dirty ridge of high pressure is building to the west of Colorado this afternoon. There is a fair amount of upper level moisture which will keep some high clouds over head for Tuesday night as the ridge moves over us. On Wednesday about mid-day the first in a series of weak and quick moving ripples in the northwest flow will bring a persistant threat for snowfall to the north and central zones of Colorado into Friday. There is a good chance these could also impact the northern San Juan zone. We do not expect any big snowfall amounts from any one storm system, with the possible exception of the Steamboat zone, but amounts look to add up to around 1-3 inches from each cycle. The bigger problem will be wind. A tight pressure gradient and strong winds are expected to develop tonight. They are gradually showing signs of increasing Tuesday afternoon. The two features, strong winds, and consistent snowfall, will likey bring an increase in the avalanche danger as the week moves along. Weather Tuesday Night Wednesday Wednesday Night Temperature(°F) -7--2 20-25 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 G20 10-20 G30 Wind Direction NNW WSW W Sky Cover Mostly Clear Increasing Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 Tr-2 1-3 Snowpack Discussion A number of triggered and natural avalanches have been reported across the Grand Mesa zone recently. Almost all of these ran due to the rapid loading of heavy snow onto weak older surface snow. Too much, too fast. An observation from Sunday afternoon reported reactive slabs on terrain over 35 degrees, northerly aspects. The fractures propagated quite rapidly. The storm cycle has run its course and natural avalanche activity has ended. We still have concerns for human triggered activity. After a new snow load like we just saw it takes a little time for the snowpack to settle and gain strength. We will tweak the danger scale a bit this afternoon. Increasing winds are forecast for the next few days, this could cause an incresae in the avalanche danger so stay tuned. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger on the Grand Mesa Zone is CONSIDERABLE on north through east through south aspects near treeline. It is MODERATE below treeline. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: HIGH, avalanche danger, crowns, crusts, density, eXTREME, faceted, gradient, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, natural, natural avalanche, powder , settle, shears, slab, snowpits, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 2/5/2008 6:28:47 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis A dirty ridge of high pressure is building to the west of Colorado this afternoon. There is a fair amount of upper level moisture which will keep some high clouds over head for Tuesday night as the ridge moves over us. On Wednesday about mid-day the first in a series of weak and quick moving ripples in the northwest flow will bring a persistant threat for snowfall to the north and central zones of Colorado into Friday. There is a good chance these could also impact the northern San Juan zone. We do not expect any big snowfall amounts from any one storm system, with the possible exception of the Steamboat zone, but amounts look to add up to around 1-3 inches from each cycle. The bigger problem will be wind. A tight pressure gradient and strong winds are expected to develop tonight. They are gradually showing signs of increasing Tuesday afternoon. The two features, strong winds, and consistent snowfall, will likey bring an increase in the avalanche danger as the week moves along. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 10-15 -5 to 0 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 G20 5-15 G20 15-25 G40 Wind Direction NNE N W Sky Cover Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Increasing Snow(in) 0 0 0-2 Snowpack Discussion Recent mitigation work was pointing to the major issue being failure in the upper snowpack layers. However there have been some outliers which have shown a pattern of E-SE aspects below treeline propagating wide crowns, fractures to 5 feet deep. These slides placed a lot of debris at valley floors. We have limited observations due to the recent storm cycle, but we do expect to hear and see more today as the weather improves. After a storm cycle like we just saw the snow pack in our climate does not settle and gain strength as fast as it normally does closer to the ocean. Especially when temperatures have been cold. On Monday we had an EXTREME rating for the San Juan, today it is at HIGH. We will keep the warning up until this afternoon. You can still travel safely in the backcountry, but you need to know the terrain well. There could still be some activity that runs longer and bigger than expected. It is never nice to be unpleasantly surprised in the mountains. They could care less about minor miscalculation. From a quantity perspective, the managed ski areas will still provide the best bang for the buck. HIGH danger should not be taken lightly. Backcountry observers doing tests in snowpits have been reporting fast and clean shears within the top 2 feet of the snowpack. These results indicate obvious weak interfaces within the snowpack and the strong potential for slab avalanches to propagate over long distances. At this point, any slab avalanches that do occur have the potential to step down into deeper layers within the snowpack, causing large and destructive avalanches. Third-hand reports are coming in of observed natural avalanche activity in the backcountry on Monday, though visibility was poor and details are lacking. The snowpack is stacked with wind slabs, density-change interfaces, persistent faceted layers and, on sunny aspects, relatively weak crusts with faceted snow both above and below them. An Avalanche Warning for the Northern San Juan Zone remains in effect. Travel in the backcountry is not recommended - visit your local ski area and enjoy the epic powder that is undoubtedly waiting for you there. Avalanche Danger An Avalanche Warning is in effect for the Northern San Juan Zone. The avalanche danger is currently rated HIGH on all aspects and elevations. Widespread natural and human triggered avalanches are likely. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, eXTREME, gradient, high pressure, settle, slabs, stabilize, stress, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 2/5/2008 4:13:41 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis A dirty ridge of high pressure is building to the west of Colorado this afternoon. There is a fair amount of upper level moisture which will keep some high clouds over head for Tuesday night as the ridge moves over us. On Wednesday about mid-day the first in a series of weak and quick moving ripples in the northwest flow will bring a persistant threat for snowfall to the north and central zones of Colorado into Friday. There is a good chance these could also impact the northern San Juan zone. We do not expect any big snowfall amounts from any one storm system, with the possible exception of the Steamboat zone, but amounts look to add up to around 1-3 inches from each cycle. The bigger problem will be wind. A tight pressure gradient and strong winds are expected to develop tonight. They are gradually showing signs of increasing Tuesday afternoon. The two features, strong winds, and consistent snowfall, will likey bring an increase in the avalanche danger as the week moves along. Weather Tuesday Night Wednesday Wednesday Night Temperature(°F) -2 to 3 15-20 3-8 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 G20 12-22 G30 15-25 G40 Wind Direction NW WSW WSW Sky Cover Mostly Clear Increasing Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0-1 0-1 Snowpack Discussion The whole equation for avalanches is based on a strength verse stress ratio. Before this last storm cycle the snowpack strength was pretty strong, but the power and intensity of the storm rapidly overwhelmed those strengths and wide spread avalanching was the result. The last storm cycle was big. We were at an EXTREME danger rating on Monday. We do not see that very often. The snowpack does not stabilize rapidly after an event like that, especially with cold temperatures. With improving weather the snowpack will settle and gain strength, it just takes a little time to adjust to the new load. For now, trail breaking will be pretty sporty, as in deep. So if going out bring big quads and judge your terrain conservatively At least 20 avalanches hit Highway 160 during the storm cycle. Highway crews are working to open the west side of Wolf Creek Pass, the east side is open. On Wednesday a little more sun is expected and the new snow will continue to settle and gain strength. Something to watch for: As the temperatures rise and the sun hits the sunnier slopes, loose and wet loose activity could be on the rise. Normally these would not be a problem, but they could trigger slabs in the new snow, or do a serious wrench job on knees and shoulders. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is currently CONSIDERABLE, all aspects and elevations. Forecasted winds could cause some areas of increased danger as we move into Wednesday night and Thursday. Stay tuned [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, dense, gradient, high pressure, natural avalanche, slab, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 2/5/2008 3:57:59 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis A dirty ridge of high pressure is building to the west of Colorado this afternoon. There is a fair amount of upper level moisture which will keep some high clouds over head for Tuesday night as the ridge moves over us. On Wednesday about mid-day the first in a series of weak and quick moving ripples in the northwest flow will bring a persistant threat for snowfall to the north and central zones of Colorado into Friday. There is a good chance these could also impact the northern San Juan zone. We do not expect any big snowfall amounts from any one storm system, with the possible exception of the Steamboat zone, but amounts look to add up to around 1-3 inches from each cycle. The bigger problem will be wind. A tight pressure gradient and strong winds are expected to develop tonight. They are gradually showing signs of increasing Tuesday afternoon. The two features, strong winds, and consistent snowfall, will likey bring an increase in the avalanche danger as the week moves along. Weather Tuesday Night Wednesday Wednesday Night Temperature(°F) -5 to 0 12-17 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 G20 25-35 G50 30-40 G60 Wind Direction NNW WNW WNW Sky Cover Clear Increasing Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0-2 Snowpack Discussion A couple of observation from the Sangre De Cristo Range came in this morning. At least 6 inches of new snow fell on the valley floor in the San Luis Valley. The Range was obscured with falling snow for much of Tuesday morning. We are expecting and increase in northwest winds so north through east through southerly aspects will be loading fresh slab. The Sangres have a relatively shallow snowpack, capped by a variety of dense windslabs. Given the state of the Sangre De Cristo snowpack, slides that initiate in the upper layers have the potential to break down to the ground. As always, we really like to get observations, even if it is just cloud cover and new snow from the valley floors. Avalanche Danger We will rate the danger in the Sangres at CONSIDERABLE due solely to the potential of the Monday night/Tuesday storm system. We do expect some natural avalanche activity as winds pick-up on Wednesday. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, collapses, density, facets, gradient, high pressure, shears, slab, slabs, weak layers, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/5/2008 3:49:54 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis A dirty ridge of high pressure is building to the west of Colorado this afternoon. There is a fair amount of upper level moisture which will keep some high clouds over head for Tuesday night as the ridge moves over us. On Wednesday about mid-day the first in a series of weak and quick moving ripples in the northwest flow will bring a persistant threat for snowfall to the north and central zones of Colorado into Friday. There is a good chance these could also impact the northern San Juan zone. We do not expect any big snowfall amounts from any one storm system, with the possible exception of the Steamboat zone, but amounts look to add up to around 1-3 inches from each cycle. The bigger problem will be wind. A tight pressure gradient and strong winds are expected to develop tonight. They are gradually showing signs of increasing Tuesday afternoon. The two features, strong winds, and consistent snowfall, will likey bring an increase in the avalanche danger as the week moves along. Weather Tuesday Night Wednesday Wednesday Night Temperature(°F) -5 to 0 10-15 1-6 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 G30 20-30 G40 20-30 G60 Wind Direction NW WNW W Sky Cover Mostly Clear Increasing Overcast Snow(in) 0 1-3 1-3 Snowpack Discussion The conveyor belt keeps rolling in new snow accompanied by wind. Overnight snow totals are in the 2 to 5 inch range, making a 2 day total up to 14 inches. Winds speeds for the most part have been light but they also have been quite variable from the west, north and east. Wind loading will increase as the next system moves our way tonight, depositing more slabs on north east through south east aspects. Avalanche activity has occurred on easterly aspects at and above tree line across the zone. Skiers in the Fremont Pass area on Sunday remotely triggered a 2-3 foot deep slide from a very low angled slope from several hundred feet away. This slide ran to the ground on a southerly slope near treeline and left around 10 feet of debris in a nasty terrain trap/gully. The skiers also reported big rumbling collapses and shooting cracks indicating a very tender snowpack. With plenty of new snow and increasing ridge top winds, we can expect fresh slab development. At this time, we have two main avalanche concerns: one lies in the upper snowpack, the other is the possibility of deep slab releases. New snow may slide on a variety of weak layers including buried facets, lower density snow that fell earlier in the week, or hard slabs from our last major wind storm. Observers from throughout the zone indicate tender surface layers and that the snow pack is showing signs of strength down deep but also high quality shears. High strength and high quality shears equal false stable conditions. Continue to exercise safe travel procedures by riding one at a time, having escape routes planned and avoiding slopes steeper than 34 degrees. Riding steeper slopes may be fun but for now, avoid them. Big lines only increase the level of consequence. Triggering a large sized avalanche is entirely probable. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE overall except MODERATE on SW-W-NW aspects above treeline. Unstable slabs and human-triggered avalanches are probable on all aspects and elevations. You may find unstable windslabs on steep slopes, even below treeline in open areas. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Your observations are very important to us! Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, crust, drifting, gradient, high pressure, human triggered, path, settle, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/5/2008 6:13:00 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis A dirty ridge of high pressure is building to the west of Colorado this afternoon. There is a fair amount of upper level moisture which will keep some high clouds over head for Tuesday night as the ridge moves over us. On Wednesday about mid-day the first in a series of weak and quick moving ripples in the northwest flow will bring a persistant threat for snowfall to the north and central zones of Colorado into Friday. There is a good chance these could also impact the northern San Juan zone. We do not expect any big snowfall amounts from any one storm system, with the possible exception of the Steamboat zone, but amounts look to add up to around 1-3 inches from each cycle. The bigger problem will be wind. A tight pressure gradient and strong winds are expected to develop tonight. They are gradually showing signs of increasing Tuesday afternoon. The two features, strong winds, and consistent snowfall, will likey bring an increase in the avalanche danger as the week moves along. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 11-16 -5 to 0 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 G20 12-22 Wind Direction N N WSW Sky Cover Decreasing Mostly Clear Increasing Snow(in) 0-2 0 3-5 Snowpack Discussion As the storm pulls east skies will clear and views plus access to the backcountry will improve. There has been significant new snow over the last few days, (weeks) and some blowing/drifting snow. Winds will be light at worst today so not looking for additional load, but by Wednesday night into Thursday the winds are forecast to ramp up. The snowpack will be working to settle and gain some strength today. Given the amounts of new snow recently, this will take a little time. The avalanche danger has been at CONSIDERABLE for some a while now, and with good reason. Savy travelers will be able to move safely across the backcountry of the Steamboat zone today, just do not become complacent because there are tracks or you have ridden a particular path this season. It is an active avalanche year, the western US is on a record pace for fatalities. Be a hard judge of terrain features and potential terrain traps. Otherwise enjoy the new snow Sadly, Colorado's fifth avalanche fatality occurred Friday in the southwestern Flat Tops. A snowmobiler triggered an avalanche on a steep slope, 2 feet deep, 400 feet wide and running 350 feet downhill. The slide is classified as a SS-AM-R4D2-O, running on a buried sun crust. CAIC forecasters went to the accident site Saturday. We will report details as they become available. Click here for the [57]preliminary report. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Steamboat Zone is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects and elevations. Human triggered slides are possible to probable today. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [58]caic@qwest.net. Vail ==== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche cycles, avalanche danger, gradient, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, shears, slabs, start zones, stress, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 2/5/2008 6:22:49 AM Forecaster: Brad Sawtell Weather Synopsis A dirty ridge of high pressure is building to the west of Colorado this afternoon. There is a fair amount of upper level moisture which will keep some high clouds over head for Tuesday night as the ridge moves over us. On Wednesday about mid-day the first in a series of weak and quick moving ripples in the northwest flow will bring a persistant threat for snowfall to the north and central zones of Colorado into Friday. There is a good chance these could also impact the northern San Juan zone. We do not expect any big snowfall amounts from any one storm system, with the possible exception of the Steamboat zone, but amounts look to add up to around 1-3 inches from each cycle. The bigger problem will be wind. A tight pressure gradient and strong winds are expected to develop tonight. They are gradually showing signs of increasing Tuesday afternoon. The two features, strong winds, and consistent snowfall, will likey bring an increase in the avalanche danger as the week moves along. Weather Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday Temperature(°F) 7-12 -8 to -3 10-15 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 G20 5-15 G20 12-22 G40 Wind Direction N NW WSW Sky Cover Decreasing Mostly Clear Increasing Snow(in) 0-1 0 Tr-2 Snowpack Discussion The conveyor belt keeps rolling in new snow accompanied by wind. Overnight snow totals are in the 2 to 8 inch range. Winds speeds for the most part have been light but they also have been quite variable, coming from the west, north and east. Wind loading has continued to occur, depositing more slabs on north east through south east aspects. Avalanche activity has occurred on all easterly aspects at and above tree line. Observers keep reporting seeing fresh avalanche debris but the fracture lines have already filled in. This is an indication of rapid reloading of start zones. Our snowpack remains complicated and tender. We have had unusual weather for quite some time. Remember that unusual weather creates unusual avalanche cycles. There have been numerous wind events which have created a highly structured snow pack. Avalanche activity has been limited recently, but there comes a time when we reach critical mass, or simply that stress of new snow and wind blown snow overwhelms snowpack strength. Observers from throughout the zone indicate tender surface layers and that the snow pack is showing signs of strength down deep but also high quality shears. High strength and high quality shears equal false stable conditions. Continue to exercise safe travel procedures by riding one at a time, having escape routes planned and avoiding slopes steeper than 34 degrees. Riding steeper slopes may be fun but for now, avoid them. Big lines only increase the level of consequence. Triggering a large sized avalanche is entirely possible to probable. If we get into a storm cycle like the San Juans have seen recently, all bets are off. The Summit/Vail zone could see some big slides given the right storm. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Vail-Summit Zone is CONSIDERABLE on north, northeast, east, southeast, and south aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable on steep slopes. The avalanche danger is MODERATE on other aspects above treeline and on all slopes below treeline. You may find unstable windslabs on steep slopes, even below treeline in open areas.