Aspen ===== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, cornices, crown, human triggered, natural, natural avalanches, paths, settle, slabs, start zones, stresse, weak layers, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 2/6/2008 4:33:45 PM Forecaster: John Snook Weather Synopsis The first in a series of storms has spread clouds and light snow across the mountains within west-northwest flow on Wednesday afternoon. Snowfall will favor the northern and central mountains, and the north side of the San Juans. Snow associated with the first pulse will last until midnight. A second pulse of snow is expected to start after day break Thursday and last into Friday morning. This second pulse shows more promise for heavier snow especially on those aspects favored by west-northwest flow. Persistent strong winds above treeline will also be an issue during this cycle for the northern half of the state. Periods of light snow will persist into Saturday for the northern and central mountains before weak high pressure takes hold for the latter part of the weekend. Weather Wednesday Night Thursday Thursday Night Temperature(°F) 0-5 18-23 4-9 Wind Speed(mph) 17-27 20-30 G50 22-32 Wind Direction WNW W WNW Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 3-5 3-5 8-10 Snowpack Discussion After a brief break, snowfall has returned to the Aspen zone Wednesday afternoon. Due to poor visibility, avalanche observations have been limited during the last few days. But we did hear about at least three avalanches in the Castle Creek valley on Monday and Tuesday. All ran below treeline, two on SE aspects and one on a SW aspect. Our local observer notes that several paths in Castle Creek have not yet run this year, and he has concerns that some of these now have the potential of hitting the road. Another observer reported a large natural slide that occurred on either Monday or Tuesday - WSW aspect at 10,000' north of Peanut Butter Cliffs. The 16" crown stepped down an additional 1-2' and created 8' of debris on the Midnight Mine Road and debris continued down into the creek. Wind speeds have strengthened from the west-northwest and new wind slabs are forming on north-east-south aspects. Persistent west-northwest wind and a couple of storms are expected through Friday morning. Steep terrain is going to struggle with this new load, especially when it has had so little time between storm cycles to settle and gain strength. We are close to the point of reaching a critical mass of new snow and any underlying weak layers may not support an additional load. The upper snowpack in the last couple weeks has become quite complicated with multiple layers of slabs and weak layers, especially near and above treeline. These upper layers will most likely be the first to fail in an avalanche but some deeper weak layers are being stressed by the new snow as well. In the right locations, triggered and natural avalanches may step down and fail in the middle or lower portions of the snowpack. Savvy backcountry travelers will enjoy good riding. To be safe, however, you will need to avoid steep slopes greater than 34 degrees especially where new snowfall and wind combines to create fresh cornices and wind pillows in avalanche start zones. If a slope has already slid, do not assume it is safe as the wind is quickly reloading slopes. The snowpack across the Aspen zone remains complicated and potentially dangerous. Treat it with respect. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects and elevations. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered ones probable on all slopes 30 degrees and steeper. Areas of higher avalanche danger are possible in the SW corner of the Aspen Zone where snow totals are over two feet since Sunday. Keep an eye out for these variable conditions that can change from one valley to the next. The snowpack is tender and will require a cautious approach to backcountry travel at this time. The CAIC Aspen office REALLY needs your backcountry avalanche, weather, or snowpack observations. These observations have been very limited at the office this year and are extremely valuable to our forecasts. If you are seeing avalanche activity anywhere, or at any time in this area, please help out by emailing caic@qwest.net. Front Range =========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cornices, drifting, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, lee , natural, shears, slab, slabs, start zones, wind loaded, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/7/2008 6:21:27 AM Forecaster: John Snook Weather Synopsis Clouds followed by mountain snow are moving into the state from the north on Thursday. Steamboat Springs reported heavy snow starting just after noon. Snowfall will favor the northern and central mountains, and the northwest side of the San Juans. Expect very strong winds with this system over the northern and central mountains. Favored locations could get close to a foot of snow by Friday morning. A brief break in the clouds is expected Friday morning before clouds increase again primarily over the northern half of the state. Periods of light snow may occur along favored northwest aspects Friday afternoon into evening, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Weak high pressure will generate somewhat warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies for the weekend. Another storm system is scheduled to arrive on Monday. Weather Thursday Thursday Night Friday Temperature(°F) 15-20 0-5 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 G55 20-30 G70 20-30 G55 Wind Direction W W W Sky Cover Increasing Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 3-5 4-6 0-2 Snowpack Discussion An observer on Wednesday noted a natural slide north of Silver Plume that ran on a south aspect from above treeline. It appeared to be within the new snow that fell during the past two storms. CDOT generated good results on Berthoud Pass and the I-70 corridor east of Ike Tunnel Tuesday morning. Winds have strengthened overnight from the west-northwest. The forecast is for continued strong winds with more snow through Friday morning. Heaviest snowfall will occur west and over the Continental Divide, where the combination of wind and snow could raise the hazard by Friday. Slides can occur within the upper snowpack where storm snow is drifting onto lee N-E-S aspects. Lurking deep slab instabilities also remain a concern. The middle snowpack is quite supportive but instability tests indicate many layers with easy shears. It may be hard to trigger a deep slab, but if you do, it will be a large and dangerous slide. Savvy backcountry travelers will enjoy good riding. To be safe, however, you will need to avoid steep slopes especially where new snowfall and wind combines to create fresh cornices and wind pillows in avalanche start zones. If a slope has already slid, do not assume it is safe as the wind is quickly reloading slopes. The typical Continental snowpack across the Front Range zone remains complicated and potentially dangerous. Treat it with respect. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Front Range is CONSIDERABLE on north, northeast, east, southeast and south aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable on steep wind loaded slopes. Below treeline on north, northeast, east, southeast and south aspects the danger is MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger. Look for pockets on steep exposed slopes, where new wind slabs are forming on top of pre-existing slabs. The danger is MODERATE on southwest, west, and northwest aspects at all elevations. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, high pressure, human triggered, natural, settling, slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 2/7/2008 6:23:11 AM Forecaster: John Snook Weather Synopsis Clouds followed by mountain snow are moving into the state from the north on Thursday. Steamboat Springs reported heavy snow starting just after noon. Snowfall will favor the northern and central mountains, and the northwest side of the San Juans. Expect very strong winds with this system over the northern and central mountains. Favored locations could get close to a foot of snow by Friday morning. A brief break in the clouds is expected Friday morning before clouds increase again primarily over the northern half of the state. Periods of light snow may occur along favored northwest aspects Friday afternoon into evening, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Weak high pressure will generate somewhat warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies for the weekend. Another storm system is scheduled to arrive on Monday. Weather Thursday Thursday Night Friday Temperature(°F) 20-25 5-10 20-25 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 15-25 G35 5-15 Wind Direction W WNW W Sky Cover Increasing Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 1-3 2-4 0-1 Snowpack Discussion It has been several days since a number of triggered and natural avalanches have been reported across the Grand Mesa zone. Almost all of these ran due to the rapid loading of heavy snow onto weak older surface snow. An observation from Sunday afternoon reported reactive slabs on terrain over 35 degrees, northerly aspects. The fractures propagated quite rapidly. Natural avalanche activity has ended, but we still have concerns for human triggered activity. Moderate winds and light snow in the forecast will postpone the snowpack from settling and gaining strength. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Grand Mesa zone is CONSIDERABLE on north through east through south aspects near treeline. It is MODERATE below treeline. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, HIGH, avalanche danger, crusts, explosive, faceted, high pressure, natural, naturally, path, precipitation , settle, settles, slab, slabs, starting zone, starting zones, wind load, wind-loading, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 2/7/2008 6:20:16 AM Forecaster: Mark Rikkers Weather Synopsis Clouds followed by mountain snow are moving into the state from the north on Thursday. Steamboat Springs reported heavy snow starting just after noon. Snowfall will favor the northern and central mountains, and the northwest side of the San Juans. Expect very strong winds with this system over the northern and central mountains. Favored locations could get close to a foot of snow by Friday morning. A brief break in the clouds is expected Friday morning before clouds increase again primarily over the northern half of the state. Periods of light snow may occur along favored northwest aspects Friday afternoon into evening, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Weak high pressure will generate somewhat warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies for the weekend. Another storm system is scheduled to arrive on Monday. Weather Thursday Thursday Night Friday Temperature(°F) 18-23 0-5 17-22 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G35 20-30 G45 5-15 Wind Direction WNW WNW NW Sky Cover Increasing Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 1-3 5-7 0-1 Snowpack Discussion Wednesday morning brought a brief period of improved visibility and highway crews finally got a chance to view some areas of Red Mt. Pass where extensive mitigation work had been done Tuesday. The size of explosive triggered slides is impressive, with several very large hard slab debris piles covering extensive sections of highway. Crews on Lizard Head Pass also got excellent results on Monday, covering the closed road with debris piles up to 14 feet deep. The next wave of snow moved in by late morning Wednesday. By afternoon, many areas were in full storm conditions and observers reported periods of high precipitation intensity and wind speeds. Ridgetop weather station data show generally west-northwest flow yesterday afternoon with hourly averages in the 20s and 30s and peak gusts into the 60s. Obviously, there was plenty of fresh snow available for transport, particularly onto high east, southeast and south slopes. Visibility was limited so it remains unclear how much natural activity occurred. However, we do know that the St. Louis slide in the Ophir valley ran naturally Wednesday afternoon because it put 3-4' of debris across both lanes of the road. Fortunately no one was caught in the slide, but a motorist did drive into the debris pile due to poor visibility. This slide path is generally south-facing, though its high upper starting zones do have southeast and southwest components. Large natural and triggered slides with similar aspects and starting zone elevations have been observed near Silverton in the past few days. The snowpack is trying to settle out, but new snow and wind loads over the past 10 days continue to keep it on edge. The recent natural and mitigated avalanche trend has been largely focused on east, southeast and south aspects at all elevations. On these reactive sunny aspects, the snowpack structure is comprised of alternating layers of slabs, thin sun crusts and weak faceted snow, including well-developed depth hoar at the bottom of the pack. All you need on top of these ingredients is a steep enough slope and a trigger to cause a large avalanche. 6-11" of snowfall, favoring the northern portions of our zone, is in the forecast for Thursday into Friday morning. This means additional snow load on all aspects, particularly the already problematic ones near and above treeline due to wind-loading from the moderate west-northwest winds that are expected. The avalanche danger is unlikely to decrease quickly, folks - if you head out in the backcountry, use strict backcountry protocol and stay on protected, low angle terrain until our snowpack settles down a bit. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is HIGH on east, southeast and south aspects at all elevations; the danger is CONSIDERABLE on other aspects and elevations. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, density, high pressure, human triggered, natural, naturally, settle, settles, slab, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 2/7/2008 6:26:35 AM Forecaster: John Snook Weather Synopsis Clouds followed by mountain snow are moving into the state from the north on Thursday. Steamboat Springs reported heavy snow starting just after noon. Snowfall will favor the northern and central mountains, and the northwest side of the San Juans. Expect very strong winds with this system over the northern and central mountains. Favored locations could get close to a foot of snow by Friday morning. A brief break in the clouds is expected Friday morning before clouds increase again primarily over the northern half of the state. Periods of light snow may occur along favored northwest aspects Friday afternoon into evening, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Weak high pressure will generate somewhat warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies for the weekend. Another storm system is scheduled to arrive on Monday. Weather Thursday Thursday Night Friday Temperature(°F) 27-32 5-10 25-30 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 G35 15-25 G35 15-25 G35 Wind Direction WSW W WNW Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0-1 0 Snowpack Discussion Our observer on Wednesday near Wolf Creek Pass noted very few signs of instability on W-SW-S-SE aspects below treeline. Wind speeds strengthened during the afternoon with some snow transport in exposed areas. A skier was caught and buried (only a hand sticking out) in a slide on a 30-35 degree N aspect of Smelter Mountain near Durango. The skier took about a 600' ride including a 10' cliff. Fortunately, his partner was able to unbury him, and he escaped with only minor scrapes and bruises. Another observer in the Wolf Creek Pass area noted lots of slide activity below 8000'. About 3' of snow has fallen onto these lower elevations and steep aspects are running naturally, some down to the ground creating deep debris piles. At higher elevations, less activity was noted where warming temperatures are helping to settle the snowpack. Winds have created a soft slab surface layer that sits on top of a low density snow layer. As the snowpack settles, the chances for natural slide activity have diminished. But human triggered slides are still probable on all aspects and elevations. You should not assume that lower elevation slopes are safer. In fact with the unusually deep snowpack, steep lower elevation slopes may be more prone to human triggered slides than higher terrain. A slow warming trend is expected into the weekend. This will help the snowpack to gain strength in general, but on sunny aspects you will need to watch for the development of loose and wet loose activity. For now, you should give the snowpack another couple of days to strengthen. To be safe, stay on lower angle terrain, less than 30 degrees. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Southern San Juan zone is CONSIDERABLE on N-NE-E-SE aspects at all elevations. On other aspects the danger is MODERATE. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, dense, high pressure, slabs, wind slabs, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 2/7/2008 6:27:10 AM Forecaster: John Snook Weather Synopsis Clouds followed by mountain snow are moving into the state from the north on Thursday. Steamboat Springs reported heavy snow starting just after noon. Snowfall will favor the northern and central mountains, and the northwest side of the San Juans. Expect very strong winds with this system over the northern and central mountains. Favored locations could get close to a foot of snow by Friday morning. A brief break in the clouds is expected Friday morning before clouds increase again primarily over the northern half of the state. Periods of light snow may occur along favored northwest aspects Friday afternoon into evening, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Weak high pressure will generate somewhat warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies for the weekend. Another storm system is scheduled to arrive on Monday. Weather Thursday Thursday Night Friday Temperature(°F) 25-30 3-8 23-28 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G45 20-30 G50 15-25 G45 Wind Direction W W WNW Sky Cover Increasing Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0-1 0 Snowpack Discussion A couple of observation from the Sangre De Cristo Range came in Tuesday morning. At least 6 inches of new snow fell on the valley floor in the San Luis Valley. The Range was obscured with falling snow for much of Tuesday morning. An observer from Alamosa on Wednesday got a brief glimpse at Blanca which was covered in a nice blanket of snow. Winds in town strengthened Wednesday night from the northwest - a sure sign that winds are blowing up high. Not much in the way of new snow is expected, but strong northwest winds are likely creating fresh slabs on north through east through southerly aspects. The Sangres have a relatively shallow snowpack, capped by a variety of dense windslabs. Given the state of the Sangre De Cristo snowpack, slides that initiate in the upper layers have the potential to break down to the ground. As always, we really like to get observations, even if it is just cloud cover and new snow from the valley floors. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Sangres is CONSIDERABLE on N-E-S aspects near and above treeline where recent storm snow and wind slabs have developed. Elsewhere the danger is MODERATE. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cornices, high pressure, slab, slabs, start zones, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/7/2008 6:28:40 AM Forecaster: Brad Sawtell Weather Synopsis Clouds followed by mountain snow are moving into the state from the north on Thursday. Steamboat Springs reported heavy snow starting just after noon. Snowfall will favor the northern and central mountains, and the northwest side of the San Juans. Expect very strong winds with this system over the northern and central mountains. Favored locations could get close to a foot of snow by Friday morning. A brief break in the clouds is expected Friday morning before clouds increase again primarily over the northern half of the state. Periods of light snow may occur along favored northwest aspects Friday afternoon into evening, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Weak high pressure will generate somewhat warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies for the weekend. Another storm system is scheduled to arrive on Monday. Weather Thursday Thursday Night Friday Temperature(°F) 17-22 0-5 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 G45 20-30 G55 20-30 G50 Wind Direction W W WNW Sky Cover Increasing Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 3-5 4-6 0-1 Snowpack Discussion A little more than a foot of new snow has fallen over much of the Sawatch Range since the weekend. Overnight winds throughout the zone have been quite breezy with gust over 70 mph. New snow is in the 1 to 7 inch range with the winners being the southern part of the zone. Reports of avalanche activity have been slim, but with the winds and blowing snow, expect to see fresh activity if you are out in the backcountry. Earlier in the week, I found full fetches and deep snow in the Monarch Pass area. I also did not experience many signs of instability. What's interesting about our snowpack is that conditions can change very quickly. Wind speeds have been increasing and becoming more consistant over the last 48 hrs., forming fresh slabs on north, east and south aspects. So, expect to find very tender surface slabs on these aspects, at and above tree line. Pay close attention to where you get cracking and expect results on steeper slopes. Shooting cracks are good indicators that the snowpack can and wants to zipper open. Expect the likelihood of triggering a surface soft slab to be on the rise throughout the zone. Additionally, I am still concerned about the deep slab instability issue, especially in the interior parts of the zone, mainly in the Collegiate Peaks. Choose your terrain very wisely and pay close attention to avalanche runnout zones. Large avalanches will remain possible to probable. You are most likely to find good riding conditions below tree line where the snow has been less affected by the wind. To avoid an accident, you will need to avoid steep slopes steeper than 34 degrees especially where new snowfall and wind combines to create fresh cornices and wind pillows in avalanche start zones. If a slope has already slid, do not assume it is safe as the wind is quickly reloading slopes. Continue to practice smart travel procedures as they will save you when your predictions are wrong. As new snow falls and strong winds blow, the danger will be rising today. Expect stability to decrease by the afternoon. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Sawatch zone is CONSIDERABLE near and above treeline on N-E-S aspects. Elsewhere the danger is MODERATE. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Your observations are very important to us! Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, HIGH, avalanche cycle, avalanche danger, high pressure, human triggered, natural, paths, stress, water equivalent, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/7/2008 6:19:03 AM Forecaster: John Snook Weather Synopsis Clouds followed by mountain snow are moving into the state from the north on Thursday. Steamboat Springs reported heavy snow starting just after noon. Snowfall will favor the northern and central mountains, and the northwest side of the San Juans. Expect very strong winds with this system over the northern and central mountains. Favored locations could get close to a foot of snow by Friday morning. A brief break in the clouds is expected Friday morning before clouds increase again primarily over the northern half of the state. Periods of light snow may occur along favored northwest aspects Friday afternoon into evening, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Weak high pressure will generate somewhat warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies for the weekend. Another storm system is scheduled to arrive on Monday. Weather Thursday Thursday Night Friday Temperature(°F) 18-23 2-7 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 G50 20-30 G50 20-30 G50 Wind Direction W WNW W Sky Cover Increasing Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 6-8 3-5 0-2 Snowpack Discussion Visibility into the backcountry has been limited at best. In the brief windows of visibility on Tuesday, four natural slides were seen on E-S aspects in near and below treeline elevations. Visibility did not allow much detail, but these were on paths known as Divisa 1 and 2 just north of Hahn's Peak Village and a couple out of Cornice Bowl. An observer near Buffalo Pass noted 7" new by 10am on Wednesday, plus an additional 6-8" during the day. Strong west winds started by early afternoon. There has been a steady increase in snow load during the past week. The automated Snotel site near Buffalo Pass indicates an additional 3" of water equivalent has been added to snowpack in the past week. Winds have shifted to the west-northwest and are strong enough to move snow in exposed areas. The forecast is for persistent west-northwest winds and more snow through Friday morning. This will continue to stress the snowpack. The primary concern is slides within the recent storm and wind blown snow layers. We are thinking we are going to move into a new avalanche cycle. If you see any avalanche activity or other signs of instability, please send us a message. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Steamboat Zone is HIGH on east through south aspects at all elevations. On other aspects it is CONSIDERABLE. Human triggered slides are probable to likely. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [57]caic@qwest.net. Vail ==== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cornices, density, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, lee , natural avalanche, settled, ski cutting, slab, slabs, start zones, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 2/7/2008 6:26:19 AM Forecaster: Brad Sawtell Weather Synopsis Clouds followed by mountain snow are moving into the state from the north on Thursday. Steamboat Springs reported heavy snow starting just after noon. Snowfall will favor the northern and central mountains, and the northwest side of the San Juans. Expect very strong winds with this system over the northern and central mountains. Favored locations could get close to a foot of snow by Friday morning. A brief break in the clouds is expected Friday morning before clouds increase again primarily over the northern half of the state. Periods of light snow may occur along favored northwest aspects Friday afternoon into evening, but accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Weak high pressure will generate somewhat warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies for the weekend. Another storm system is scheduled to arrive on Monday. Weather Thursday Thursday Night Friday Temperature(°F) 13-18 -3 to 2 10-15 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 G50 20-30 G65 20-30 G45 Wind Direction W WNW WNW Sky Cover Increasing Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 3-5 5-7 0-2 Snowpack Discussion Wind speeds by yesterday afternoon started to really ramp up from the north west, forming soft slabs on easterly aspects. Observers reported upside down soft slabs that are very reactive to ski cutting. They also said that results from ski cuts were successful on the same slopes throughout the afternoon. Overnight temperatures were chilly, winds consistently moderate to strong from the west and north west and new snow is difficult to measure due to the winds, but reports are in the 1 to 5 inch range. Most avalanche activty has occured on easterly aspects at and above treeline throughout the zone. One large sized natural avalanche was reported from the backcountry, north east of Breckenridge. This avalanche ran nearly full track and occurred on a north aspect. Winds in the Vail and Beaver Creek areas have been lighter and more variable in direction. Our snowpack is continuing to be more and more complex. Although the mid and lower layers in the snowpack have settled, deep slab instability still lurks. For now, the big concern will be found in the surface layers. New snow in lee areas has been re-distributed, forming soft slabs. These slabs are forming above both low density snow and slabs formed earlier in the week. Triggering a slab on all steep cross and top loaded slopes facing north, east and south aspects at and above tree line will remain probable. Pay close attention to where you get cracking and expect results on steeper slopes. Shooting cracks are good indicators that the snowpack can and wants to zipper open. You are most likely to find good riding conditions below tree line where the snow has been less affected by the wind. To avoid an accident, you will need to avoid steep slopes steeper than 34 degrees especially where new snowfall and wind combines to create fresh cornices and wind pillows in avalanche start zones. If a slope has already slid, do not assume it is safe as the wind is quickly reloading slopes. Continue to practice smart travel procedures as they will save you when your predictions are wrong. As new snow falls and strong winds blow, the danger will be rising today. Expect stability to decrease by the afternoon. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Vail-Summit Zone is CONSIDERABLE on north, northeast, east, southeast, and south aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are probable on steep slopes. The avalanche danger is MODERATE on other aspects above treeline and on all slopes below treeline. You may find unstable windslabs on steep slopes, even below treeline in open areas.