Aspen ===== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, beacon, crown, high pressure, human triggered, natural, naturals, paths, powder , probe, rescue gear, shovel, slab, slabs, start zones, stresse, weak layer, weak layers, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 2/10/2008 2:53:57 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Some high thin clouds have been filtering through the high country today. There is a dry slot a little to our west so clouds should clear out for a period this evening before rebuilding in advance of the system Monday. Winds have been showing a slight upwards trend this afternoon. That will continue for the next 24-36 hours. Our next system arrives in the Steamboat zone Monday morning and will spread south from there. This looks to be primarily a central and northern zone storm, but it could spread a few flakes into the northern San Juan. Early Tuesday morning another weak impulse slips through, and there could be a period of NE winds which might bring some snow into the Uncompagrhe Gorge. This does not look to be a big storm, but it will freshen things up a bit. As we move into Tuesday a weak ridge of high pressure will make a brief visit. Another storm, this one looking to favor all the zones, arrives on Wednesday. The party continues. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 22-27 6-11 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 12-22 G30 12-22 G30 Wind Direction WSW WNW NW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Increasing Overcast Snow(in) 0 Tr-3 1-3 Snowpack Discussion Tthere was a natural cycle in the Aspen zone on Saturday, likely due to quickly warming temperatures. We don't have a great deal of detail, but 3 large slabs in the Willow Creek Drainage, near Snowmass, SE aspects, between 11,500 and 11,800 feet. One crown was estimated at around 9 feet deep. Another large slab was skier triggered a little further down drainage and ran about 2,000 vertical, crown about 4 feet deep. A natural was reported on Hunter Peak, E to SE aspect around 12,500 feet. Finally, a second hand report of some slides on the west aspect of Highlands Ridge. No details on those. Over near Marble, Elk Mtn north of town, several large naturals were reported. These were on SE aspects and started near the ridgeline, though some did fail further down slope. They propagated quite wide, hinting at some stored energy. Crowns were around 3 feet deep. The snowpack on slopes facing North through East through South, near and above treeline, has become a complicated mess of slabs from recent wind events. Plenty of strong over weak layering exists in the upper snowpack on these aspects as a result. This strong wind has loaded paths with slabs well below their normal start zones and you can expect to find slabs in unusual places. Avalanches have the potential to step down through these multiple layers and become large and destructive. The stiff nature of the wind slabs means that they have to potential to propagate over long distances as well. Below treeline areas have a tricky and highly variable snowpack as well. The presence of some large and destructive avalanches below treeline during the last week inspires little confidence for slopes much steeper than 30 degrees at this time. Slopes facing SW-S-SE have been producing the largest avalanches recently and they should be approached with lots of respect. A long period of colder weather with little sunshine means that some of the older weak layers buried in our snowpack have remained a persistent problem. Every day we have been discussing the complexity of the snowpack and the potential for deep slab instability. The combination of new snow and high winds has stressed this complex snowpack. Avalanche Danger Avalanche danger for the Aspen Zone is rated an overall CONSIDERABLE today. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered ones probable on all slopes at this time. If triggered these avalanches have the potential to be large and very destructive. Now is not the time to tackle steeper terrain or big lines. Save those for a day with better stability. Since nearly every aspect and elevations zone has its own set of slab and weak layer problems, choosing safe terrain will be the only way to avoid an avalanche incident at this time. More sunshine than we have seen for some time is in the forecast for the mountains this weekend, but do not let blue skies and powder fever affect your backcountry judgment. A surprising number of people have headed into the backcountry without a beacon, shovel, and probe in the last few days. This equipment is absolutely required if you are to have any chance of surviving a burial. Having the right rescue gear and knowing how to use it quickly in an emergency is your only way to get a partner out of the snow in time. The CAIC Aspen office needs your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations. Drop us and e-mail at [57]caic@qwest.net with any observations you have from today. Front Range =========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, high pressure, human triggered, natural, naturals, settle, shears, slabs, start zones, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/10/2008 3:03:09 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Some high thin clouds have been filtering through the high country today. There is a dry slot a little to our west so clouds should clear out for a period this evening before rebuilding in advance of the system Monday. Winds have been showing a slight upwards trend this afternoon. That will continue for the next 24-36 hours. Our next system arrives in the Steamboat zone Monday morning and will spread south from there. This looks to be primarily a central and northern zone storm, but it could spread a few flakes into the northern San Juan. Early Tuesday morning another weak impulse slips through, and there could be a period of NE winds which might bring some snow into the Uncompagrhe Gorge. This does not look to be a big storm, but it will freshen things up a bit. As we move into Tuesday a weak ridge of high pressure will make a brief visit. Another storm, this one looking to favor all the zones, arrives on Wednesday. The party continues. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 18-23 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 G40 18-28 G40 15-25 G40 Wind Direction W WNW WNW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Overcast Overcast Snow(in) 0 2-4 2-4 Snowpack Discussion Another warming day on tap to help settle the snowpack. 3 additional slides were reported from the Berthoud Pass area, all naturals, ENE to SSE aspects above treeline. Instability tests showed some lower numbers, without clean shears, and from about a foot to 4 feet deep. CDOT had some good results off the 7 Sisters Saturday morning, also a slide that may have run Friday with a shoot, but could not be seen, was reported on the west side of Loveland Pass on an ESE aspect above treeline. A large natural popped out of the Number 3 Sister Friday night, it left debris 8-10 feet deep on Loveland Pass. CDOT got a good sized avalanche to run in the SE facing Stanley Path near Berthoud Pass on Friday. Parts of the slide ran to the ground. Of note is that the slide started near treeline and nothing ran from the higher start zones. The strong winds have likely stripped snow from above treeline elevations and it is now loaded as large wind pillows closer to treeline. Lee aspects (N-E-S) close to treeline are likely to have the greatest avalanche danger at this time. Our concern shifts to human triggered slides. It will be easy to push into bigger terrain as visibility improves and temperatures warm. It has been cold, and the snowpack will want to settle and gain strength, but it can have trouble doing that slowly if people are out pounding on the fresh and still tender slabs A lot of hard slab has developed over the last few days, these are insidious beasts, beautiful to watch from a distance, but really sucks to be in one. The largest concerns are on N-E-S aspects near and above treeline where hard wind slabs have developed. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Front Range zone is currently CONSIDERABLE on NW-NE-SE-S aspects all elevations, and it is MODERATE elsewhere. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: LOW, avalanche danger, high pressure, whumpfing, wind slab, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 2/10/2008 2:49:10 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Some high thin clouds have been filtering through the high country today. There is a dry slot a little to our west so clouds should clear out for a period this evening before rebuilding in advance of the system Monday. Winds have been showing a slight upwards trend this afternoon. That will continue for the next 24-36 hours. Our next system arrives in the Steamboat zone Monday morning and will spread south from there. This looks to be primarily a central and northern zone storm, but it could spread a few flakes into the northern San Juan. Early Tuesday morning another weak impulse slips through, and there could be a period of NE winds which might bring some snow into the Uncompagrhe Gorge. This does not look to be a big storm, but it will freshen things up a bit. As we move into Tuesday a weak ridge of high pressure will make a brief visit. Another storm, this one looking to favor all the zones, arrives on Wednesday. The party continues. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 20-25 28-33 6-11 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 8-18 G20 8-18 G20 Wind Direction WSW W WNW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Overcast Snow(in) 0 0-2 0-2 Snowpack Discussion It has been more than a week since we have heard about any slide activity on the Grand Mesa. Steep slopes near treeline that have built up several layers of wind slab are the areas of greatest concern. You will find these areas on exposed north-east-south aspects. It As always, you need to watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing noises, propagating cracks, or recent slide activity. If you observe these signs, then avoid steep terrain in these areas. We will lower the avalanche danger in the Grand Mesa area this afternoon Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Grand Mesa zone is LOW overall Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, crowns, front, high pressure, natural, settle, slab, slabs, wind loading, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 2/10/2008 2:46:51 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Some high thin clouds have been filtering through the high country today. There is a dry slot a little to our west so clouds should clear out for a period this evening before rebuilding in advance of the system Monday. Winds have been showing a slight upwards trend this afternoon. That will continue for the next 24-36 hours. Our next system arrives in the Steamboat zone Monday morning and will spread south from there. This looks to be primarily a central and northern zone storm, but it could spread a few flakes into the northern San Juan. Early Tuesday morning another weak impulse slips through, and there could be a period of NE winds which might bring some snow into the Uncompagrhe Gorge. This does not look to be a big storm, but it will freshen things up a bit. As we move into Tuesday a weak ridge of high pressure will make a brief visit. Another storm, this one looking to favor all the zones, arrives on Wednesday. The party continues. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 15-20 22-27 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 15-25 G40 15-25 G40 Wind Direction SW WSW NNE Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Overcast Snow(in) 0 0-1 0-2 Snowpack Discussion There was a skier triggered slide reported from the BC run Revelation into Bear Creek on Saturday or possibly Friday. It started at treeline on a SSE aspect, Crown was 75 feet wide, and about a foot deep. It ran about 2,000 vertical, and over some 200 foot cliffs. That would have been a revelation. Further east in the zone a couple slides were reported near Lake City. These started at around 12,500 feet to 12,000 feet on N to E aspects. The crowns were estimated at from 3-6 feet deep, and ran 1500 to 2500 vertical. There has been significant wind loading on Slugullion Pass, CDOT is struggling to keep one lane open. One other natural was reported in Minnehaha Basin, SSW aspect and ran as a hard soft slab for 2,500 vertical. Likely ran on Saturday. Friday and Saturday's warm, sunny weather with moderate winds allowed the snowpack to settle down a bit more. The sun caused some wet loose activity, particularly out of steep sunny slopes with rocky outcroppings - expect more of the same into Sunday as the snow adjusts with the weather. It's also good to remember that the weight of loose sloughs can cause tender slabs with more destructive potential to release. Recent winds have stiffened the upper snowpack, particularly in the alpine, but also in exposed areas below treeline. The resulting windslabs, however thin or thick, can be reactive, particularly on steep convex rolls. The upper snowpack continues to be our area of primary concern. However, fairly deep slab fractures have been reported in the last 10 days and the potential for shallow slabs to step down into deeper layers is real. The sunny skies and incredible coverage are likely to be strong pulls today. If you head out in the backcountry, keep the recent avalanche trends in the forefront of your mind and remember to use strict backcountry protocol. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on southeast and south aspects at all elevations; the danger is MODERATE on other aspects and elevations. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, crown, crust, high pressure, settle, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 2/10/2008 2:39:50 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Some high thin clouds have been filtering through the high country today. There is a dry slot a little to our west so clouds should clear out for a period this evening before rebuilding in advance of the system Monday. Winds have been showing a slight upwards trend this afternoon. That will continue for the next 24-36 hours. Our next system arrives in the Steamboat zone Monday morning and will spread south from there. This looks to be primarily a central and northern zone storm, but it could spread a few flakes into the northern San Juan. Early Tuesday morning another weak impulse slips through, and there could be a period of NE winds which might bring some snow into the Uncompagrhe Gorge. This does not look to be a big storm, but it will freshen things up a bit. As we move into Tuesday a weak ridge of high pressure will make a brief visit. Another storm, this one looking to favor all the zones, arrives on Wednesday. The party continues. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 11-16 26-31 8-12 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 10-20 G30 10-20 Wind Direction SW WSW N Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0-1 Snowpack Discussion One new remote triggered slide was reported from up near Molas Pass. This was on a SE aspect at 11,800 feet, and ran Saturday. The crown was 2-3 feet deep, and it did run in some sparse timber. Another ob from south of Monte Vista told of a firm wind crust but there was a lot of collpase reported in flatter terrain. The snowpack contiunes to settle and gain strength with the mild weather. It has been behaving much like a maritime snowpack, with most avalanche activity running during, or shortly after a storm cycle. We'll start to see slightly cooler temperatures, with a slight increase in winds the next couple of days, but it does not look to change ther current danger ratings at all. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Southern San Juan zone is MODERATE near and above treeline on NW-NE-SE aspects, and LOW elsewhere. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: avalanche danger, dense, high pressure, human triggered, lee , windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 2/10/2008 2:33:10 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Some high thin clouds have been filtering through the high country today. There is a dry slot a little to our west so clouds should clear out for a period this evening before rebuilding in advance of the system Monday. Winds have been showing a slight upwards trend this afternoon. That will continue for the next 24-36 hours. Our next system arrives in the Steamboat zone Monday morning and will spread south from there. This looks to be primarily a central and northern zone storm, but it could spread a few flakes into the northern San Juan. Early Tuesday morning another weak impulse slips through, and there could be a period of NE winds which might bring some snow into the Uncompagrhe Gorge. This does not look to be a big storm, but it will freshen things up a bit. As we move into Tuesday a weak ridge of high pressure will make a brief visit. Another storm, this one looking to favor all the zones, arrives on Wednesday. The party continues. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 13-18 22-27 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 24-34 G40 15-25 Wind Direction SWW WNW NE Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Overcast Snow(in) 0 0-1 0-2 Snowpack Discussion We know the winds have been blowing strong from directions ranging from southwest to northwest. Hence, lee aspects ranging from north through east to south are most suspect for human triggered slide activity. The Sangres have a relatively shallow snowpack, capped by a variety of dense windslabs. Given the state of the Sangre De Cristo snowpack, slides that initiate in the upper layers have the potential to break down to the ground. As always, we really like to get observations, even if it is just cloud cover and new snow from the valley floors. Avalanche Danger We have insufficient information to rate the avalanche danger for the Sangre de Cristo zone. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, crown, high pressure, human triggered, natural, natural avalanche, slab, slabs, whumpfing, wind slab, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/10/2008 2:31:13 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Some high thin clouds have been filtering through the high country today. There is a dry slot a little to our west so clouds should clear out for a period this evening before rebuilding in advance of the system Monday. Winds have been showing a slight upwards trend this afternoon. That will continue for the next 24-36 hours. Our next system arrives in the Steamboat zone Monday morning and will spread south from there. This looks to be primarily a central and northern zone storm, but it could spread a few flakes into the northern San Juan. Early Tuesday morning another weak impulse slips through, and there could be a period of NE winds which might bring some snow into the Uncompagrhe Gorge. This does not look to be a big storm, but it will freshen things up a bit. As we move into Tuesday a weak ridge of high pressure will make a brief visit. Another storm, this one looking to favor all the zones, arrives on Wednesday. The party continues. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 12-17 23-28 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 G30 20-30 G40 20-30 G40 Wind Direction SW WNW NW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Overcast Snow(in) 0 Tr-2 1-3 Snowpack Discussion Two natural slides observed on a northeast aspect near Monarch Pass recently. One was a large size 4 soft slab with a 2-6' crown, 700' wide, and 650' vertical. Another large slide was reported from an east aspect above treeline in the Buffalo Peaks area south of Fairplay. There was a natural avalanche reported just on the north side of Hoosier Pass on a southerly aspect above treeline, it was a couple hundred feet wide by a couple hundred vertical. No new activity has been reported on Sunday. The next storm system will probably not bring enough snow and wind to greatly change the danger scale, but be sure to check in just in case. We have been discussing the complexity of the snowpack and the potential for deep slab instability for quite some time. Slides can start within the upper snowpack comprised of several layers of wind slabs and recent storm snow. These slides will have the potential to step down into the lower snowpack to create large and dangerous hard slab avalanches. More sunshine than we have seen for some time is forecast for the mountains. You must not let blue skies and powder fever affect your backcountry judgment. You must constantly watch for signs of instability such as recent slide activity, propagating cracks, and whumpfing noises. These signs tell you to stay away from slopes of greater than 30 degrees. The largest concerns are on N-E-S aspects near and above treeline where hard wind slabs have developed. Do not be fooled onto a steep slope with a supportable wind slab. As you travel downhill, that slab will become weaker. If you break through, you could trigger a large slab avalanche. Human triggered slides will remain probable to likely on Saturday. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Sawatch zone is CONSIDERABLE on N-E-SW aspects, all elevations. It is MODERATE elsewhere. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Your observations are very important to us! Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, cornice, explosives, high pressure, human triggered, settle, slab, stress, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/10/2008 2:26:05 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Some high thin clouds have been filtering through the high country today. There is a dry slot a little to our west so clouds should clear out for a period this evening before rebuilding in advance of the system Monday. Winds have been showing a slight upwards trend this afternoon. That will continue for the next 24-36 hours. Our next system arrives in the Steamboat zone Monday morning and will spread south from there. This looks to be primarily a central and northern zone storm, but it could spread a few flakes into the northern San Juan. Early Tuesday morning another weak impulse slips through, and there could be a period of NE winds which might bring some snow into the Uncompagrhe Gorge. This does not look to be a big storm, but it will freshen things up a bit. As we move into Tuesday a weak ridge of high pressure will make a brief visit. Another storm, this one looking to favor all the zones, arrives on Wednesday. The party continues. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 14-19 20-25 8-13 Wind Speed(mph) 12-22 12-22 G30 10-20 Wind Direction WSW W NW Sky Cover Increasing Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0-2 3-5 1-3 Snowpack Discussion We received a second hand report of some slides on the south cornice bowl of San Mountain this afternoon, but no other details. The next storm of the winter will arrive in the Steamboat zone Monday morning, and it does look to favor you guys best....once again. Winds are forecast to pick-up, but not like they have been. If the forecast verifies there won't be enough snow and wind to cause much change in the danger rating. Our focus shifts to human triggered activity. After a long, cold, snowy and windy storm cycle the snow pack will start to settle and gain strength. It prefers to do this slowly. Any rapid changes to the snowpack can be stressful. Things like explosives, rapid thaws, cornice falls, and people in the wrong spot can still trigger fracture and failure and start slab avalanches. We've been through quite a storm cycle, give the snowpack a chance to gain a little strength before pushing into the big terrain. Recent winds have been strong from the west and northwest. Terrain most suspect would be NE-E-S. Recent patterns from around the state are pointing to weakenesses on these same aspects. Mostly near treeline, as strong winds loaded slab lower onto slopes. Most fractures are in teh 2-5 foot range, and are propagating much wider. There have been a couple close calls in teh Gunnison zone recently, all info is pointing to a still tender snowpack, that needs a little more time to adjust. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Steamboat zone is overall CONSIDERABLE. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [57]caic@qwest.net. Vail ==== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, crown, crowns, dens, high pressure, human triggered, natural, natural avalanches, naturally, naturals, settle, slab, slabs, stresse, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 2/10/2008 3:08:29 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Some high thin clouds have been filtering through the high country today. There is a dry slot a little to our west so clouds should clear out for a period this evening before rebuilding in advance of the system Monday. Winds have been showing a slight upwards trend this afternoon. That will continue for the next 24-36 hours. Our next system arrives in the Steamboat zone Monday morning and will spread south from there. This looks to be primarily a central and northern zone storm, but it could spread a few flakes into the northern San Juan. Early Tuesday morning another weak impulse slips through, and there could be a period of NE winds which might bring some snow into the Uncompagrhe Gorge. This does not look to be a big storm, but it will freshen things up a bit. As we move into Tuesday a weak ridge of high pressure will make a brief visit. Another storm, this one looking to favor all the zones, arrives on Wednesday. The party continues. Weather Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature(°F) 11-16 20-25 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 12-22 15-25 G40 12-22 G30 Wind Direction WSW W WNW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Overcast Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 1-3 1-3 Snowpack Discussion A good sized natural was reported off the east ridge of Peak 1 today, and several large slabs were reported fresh Sunday in No Name Gulch north of Abasin, These were big, and ran on an east aspect. The biggest crowns was estimated at 12 feet deep, and they ran around 10:30. Saddle south of Peak 3 ran naturally as a hard slab recently. Crown estimated at 3-4 feet deep. Peak 10 Ridge NE aspect north of Francies Cabin ran about 2 feet deep, about 60 feet wide, ran into timber. Mt Helen, NE aspect, below treeline, visible from Francies Cabin south deck, 2-3 foot crown, All these reported this afternoon, and probably ran during the storm cycle. Copper ski patrollers reported seeing two naturals that ran in the backcountry on NE aspects near treeline Saturday. These were both fairly deep. A natural slab ran off Red Mtn near Hoosier Pass Saturday starting near 12,500 feet, S to SE aspect. And finally, some large slides were reported on the East side of the Gore, E & NE aspects, running 1000 feet and longer. Pretty active couple of days in this zone. CDOT had good results on the 7 Sisters and Loveland Pass today, some deep, generally E-S aspects near treeline. Snowfall has ended for the time being, and winds have eased. The threat of natural avalanches has all but ended, but our focus remains on human triggered activity. After a long period of cold, wind, and new snow, the snowpack is stressed. As skies clear and temperatures warm, the snowpack will want to settle and gain some strength. It has a pretty easy time doing that as long as it is not poked and proded too much. When skies first clear after a long storm cycle, people get keen to wander about and enjoy the blue skies. That is great, just watch those slope angles and continue to think like an avalanche if you are getting into avalanche terrain. If you were a nasty hard slab, where would you want to hang out? Good idea to avoid those dens of ill repute. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Vail-Summit zone is CONSIDERABLE on NW-NE-SE-S aspects all elevations, and MODERATE elsewhere. Cross loaded terrain facing westerly should be suspect as well.