Aspen ===== Current Keywords: MODERATE, cross loaded, crust, crusts, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, probe, shovel, slabs, surface hoar, weak layer, weak layers, wind loaded, wind slabs, windloading, windslab, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 2/18/2008 2:45:12 PM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing over all but the Wyoming border. There are a few clouds upstream, but nothing exciting. Tonight starts the long promised high pressure. The high pressure ridge along the coast shifts east into the Great Basin. That means Tuesday will be mostly clear, warm, and calm. Tuesday night a low tries to reach under the ridge. The southern mountains will see increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon and mostly cloudy skies by Wednesday. The next storm system should break the ridge down on Wednesday, and it looks like snow will spread across the state Wednesday night. Friends of the CAIC: A number of folks stopped receiving the forecasts Friday. All their email are comcast.net addresses. Our email server is sending out the correct forecasts. As far as I can tell, Comcast blacklisted our server as a spam machine on the 14th. I am attempting to resolve the issue with Comcast, but the issue is not in our control. Weather Monday Night Tuesday Tuesday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 23-28 8-13 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 10-20 5-15 Wind Direction WNW NW W Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Recent warm temperatures and calm winds have allowed the snowpack to adjust to the load of new snow we received earlier in the week. It also formed sun crusts on southeast to southwesterly aspects. Northwest winds blew Saturday and Sunday, adding yet another layer of thin slabs onto east, southeast, and south aspects near and above treeline. With crusts underneath, the new slabs could slide far and fast. At lower elevations, observers found surface hoar growing on top of the crusts. That is one of my favorite weak layer combinations--windslab over surface hoar with a nice slick crust underneath. The new snow disguises older wind slabs from strong south and southwest winds that blew earlier this week. These upper snowpack slabs and weak layers will be your biggest concern for avalanche activity today. Recent winds have created a variable snowpack with areas of wind loaded and cross loaded snow on a variety of aspects. Use your shovel and probe to get a feel for the depth and distribution of these layers and be sure to check the bond between them before committing to avalanche terrain. Don't let the above average snow year and stronger snow in the middle of the snowpack fool you. Areas of the Aspen zone, especially Independence Pass and the Upper Castle Creek valley, have shallower, more typical Colorado snowpack, with strong over weak layering and concern for deep instabilities. Avalanche Danger Avalanche danger for the Aspen zone today is MODERATE on all aspects and elevations. Human triggered avalanches remain possible. On all aspects, the most suspect areas are steep slopes with new and recent windloading. The CAIC Aspen office needs your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations. Drop us and e-mail at [57]caic@qwest.net with any Front Range =========== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche cycle, avalanche danger, crossloaded, crowns, faceted, facets, high pressure, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, settle, slab, slabs, weak layers, wind loaded, windloaded, windloading, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/18/2008 2:44:39 PM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing over all but the Wyoming border. There are a few clouds upstream, but nothing exciting. Tonight starts the long promised high pressure. The high pressure ridge along the coast shifts east into the Great Basin. That means Tuesday will be mostly clear, warm, and calm. Tuesday night a low tries to reach under the ridge. The southern mountains will see increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon and mostly cloudy skies by Wednesday. The next storm system should break the ridge down on Wednesday, and it looks like snow will spread across the state Wednesday night. Friends of the CAIC: A number of folks stopped receiving the forecasts Friday. All their email are comcast.net addresses. Our email server is sending out the correct forecasts. As far as I can tell, Comcast blacklisted our server as a spam machine on the 14th. I am attempting to resolve the issue with Comcast, but the issue is not in our control. Weather Monday Night Tuesday Tuesday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 20-25 18-23 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 15-25 10-20 Wind Direction NW WNW W Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Control work in the Cameron Pass area on Friday got good results. Eleven hard slabs were triggered with crowns ranging from 1-5 feet. Some ran on an interface in older windslabs, while others failed on weak faceted snow near the ground. Stability tests in the Loveland Pass area on Saturday yielded similar findings: slabs breaking reluctantly within older windslabs near the surface, or hard but clean failures near the ground on buried facets (CT25 Q1, RB7). On Saturday, north of Guanella Pass a snowboarder triggered a deep slab from below. He was on lower angled terrain below a steep slope. The steep slope fractured, and fortunately ran very slowly over the gentle slope. Alas on Saturday, a skier triggered a large avalanche east of Montezuma, in the Vail Summit zone. As the stability tests and triggered slide indicate, you would have to hit just the right (or wrong) spot to trigger a deep slide, but the resulting avalanche could be quite large. Take a look at the evidence from the avalanche cycle of a week ago. There were lots of big, deep hardslabs, some of which ran quite far. Now imagine your body tumbling with all that snow... The most likely place to trigger a deep slab is on convexities, near rock bands, vegetation, or low on the slope where slabs are thinner and weak layers are closer to the surface. Once initiated, fractures often propagate into much deeper snow. The weaknesses in the upper snowpack are easier to evaluate. Northwest winds picked up Saturday afternoon and have continued, loading available snow onto east, southeast and south aspects near and above treeline. Expect some fresh windslabs loaded onto easterly and southerly aspects near and above treeline. The slabs could be thicker than two feet. Sunday morning, observers mentioned that the new snow was not bonding to the older snow underneath. Saturday, observers reported a small hiker triggered avalanche in Loch Vale in Rocky Mountain National Park. The slide was on a short, crossloaded slope, and was 6 to 18 inches deep. Also on Saturday, a hiker triggered an avalanche near Saint Mary's Glacier. Both the hiker and a companion were caught, tumbled, but not buried. Even an avalanche 6 inches deep can take you for a ride, and bury you if it ends in a terrain trap. Warmer temperatures have helped settle the middle of the snowpack. Avalanches have become less frequent though weak interfaces persist, keeping human triggered slides possible in most locations. The snowpack is complex, with stacks of both soft and hard slabs amongst a variety of weak layers. Use caution in wind loaded areas where fresh slabs will become increasingly reactive to the weight of a backcountry traveler and keep the consequence of a deep slab in the back of your mind. Avalanche Danger There are pockets of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on windloaded east, southeast, and south aspects near and above treeline. Watch slopes steeper than 30 degrees with fresh windloading. The danger is MODERATE on all other aspects and elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible to probable on steep, windloaded slopes, and have the potential to break deeply. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: LOW, avalanche danger, high pressure, lee , sluffing, stabilization, whumpfing, wind loaded, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 2/18/2008 2:36:11 PM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing over all but the Wyoming border. There are a few clouds upstream, but nothing exciting. Tonight starts the long promised high pressure. The high pressure ridge along the coast shifts east into the Great Basin. That means Tuesday will be mostly clear, warm, and calm. Tuesday night a low tries to reach under the ridge. The southern mountains will see increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon and mostly cloudy skies by Wednesday. The next storm system should break the ridge down on Wednesday, and it looks like snow will spread across the state Wednesday night. Friends of the CAIC: A number of folks stopped receiving the forecasts Friday. All their email are comcast.net addresses. Our email server is sending out the correct forecasts. As far as I can tell, Comcast blacklisted our server as a spam machine on the 14th. I am attempting to resolve the issue with Comcast, but the issue is not in our control. Weather Monday Night Tuesday Tuesday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 28-33 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 0-10 0-10 Wind Direction N SW S Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Warm temperatures and light winds have encouraged rapid stabilization in the snowpack. There have been no new avalanches reported from the Grand Mesa area in the last two weeks, indicating a mostly stable snowpack. Any new snow accumulations from the weekend will be modest and will not add a significant load, though strong winds will move available snow onto lee south and easterly aspects. The greatest danger in the Grand Mesa Zone continues to be the many small, steep wind loaded slopes and terrain traps. Be sure to evaluate steep slopes before you cross. Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing noises, propagating cracks, or recent slide activity and avoid slopes where such signs are noted. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Grand Mesa is LOW on all aspects and elevations. Watch for sluffing in the new snow and areas of unstable snow on very steep slopes and terrain traps. Watch for sluffing in the new snow and areas of unstable snow on very steep slopes and terrain traps. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, bed surfaces, crust, crusts, density, facet, faceted, high pressure, lee , powder , precipitation , shear, slab, slabs, sluffs, wind-loading, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 2/18/2008 2:46:05 PM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing over all but the Wyoming border. There are a few clouds upstream, but nothing exciting. Tonight starts the long promised high pressure. The high pressure ridge along the coast shifts east into the Great Basin. That means Tuesday will be mostly clear, warm, and calm. Tuesday night a low tries to reach under the ridge. The southern mountains will see increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon and mostly cloudy skies by Wednesday. The next storm system should break the ridge down on Wednesday, and it looks like snow will spread across the state Wednesday night. Friends of the CAIC: A number of folks stopped receiving the forecasts Friday. All their email are comcast.net addresses. Our email server is sending out the correct forecasts. As far as I can tell, Comcast blacklisted our server as a spam machine on the 14th. I am attempting to resolve the issue with Comcast, but the issue is not in our control. Weather Monday Night Tuesday Tuesday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 25-30 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction N NW S Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Sunday a solid wave of precipitation brought some lovely low-density snow. Southern areas got skunked and northern areas got up to 8" of cold smoke. Cool northerly winds blew up high from Saturday through Monday night, 20s and gusts consistently into the 40s. We all know what that means - snow is being transported onto lee slopes, particularly near and above treeline. In this case, innocent low-density snow grains from northerly slopes in particular are being picked up, tossed around, broken down into smaller and simpler shapes, then packed together into tender, cohesive slabs on generally south-facing terrain. Those same aspects, from east to south to west, were sun-affected at all elevations late last week, resulting in crusts that can act as smooth bed surfaces for new slabs to slip on. Starting zones with east and southerly aspects have the most problematic crust/facet combinations, and these slopes have taken the bulk of the wind-loading from recent north-northwest winds. Two avalanches from Sunday or Monday are a reminder of the loading. There was one large avalanche in Fairview Gulch, up 110. The slide started on a southeast aspect above treeline, and broke 6 to 8 feet deep to the ground. Another slab on a southeast aspect was spotted from Telluride. Far more loose sluffs occurred, running from steep terrain both below and above treeline on most aspects. While most of these loose slides are relatively harmless, at least one found a sweet spot and triggered a slab avalanche on a steep northeast slope in the Wilsons near Telluride. The upper snowpack continues to be the area of primary concern in our increasingly deep snowpack. On northerly terrain, observers are reporting no obvious or consistent shear planes and a particularly solid mid-pack. On sunnier aspects, however, surface crusts formed between storms and these slopes have complicated series of slabs, crusts, and faceted snow throughout the snowpack. While many backcountry travelers are drawn to the shady northerly slopes to make turns, the route to get there often winds its way through terrain consisting of these more reactive aspects. Be careful on the "up and over" tours and take the time to dig around a bit and check the bond between the new/old snow interfaces before venturing onto steeper slopes. As the sun begins to warm the upper snowpack today, particularly in the areas that received the higher amounts of snow on Sunday, expect to see more loose slides out of steep slopes on all aspects. The pull of the sun and powder will be strong - use strict backcountry protocol and wise route finding to ensure that your tour starts and finishes safely. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Northern San Juan is CONSIDERABLE on east, southeast, south and southwest aspects near and above treeline. Expect to find tender windslabs on slopes 35 degrees and steeper. The danger is MODERATE on the other aspects near and above treeline and on all aspects below treeline. Human-triggered avalanches remain possible on these slopes. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or signs of instability. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, facets, high pressure, natural avalanche, settle, ski cut, slab, slabs, windloaded, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 2/18/2008 2:35:49 PM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing over all but the Wyoming border. There are a few clouds upstream, but nothing exciting. Tonight starts the long promised high pressure. The high pressure ridge along the coast shifts east into the Great Basin. That means Tuesday will be mostly clear, warm, and calm. Tuesday night a low tries to reach under the ridge. The southern mountains will see increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon and mostly cloudy skies by Wednesday. The next storm system should break the ridge down on Wednesday, and it looks like snow will spread across the state Wednesday night. Friends of the CAIC: A number of folks stopped receiving the forecasts Friday. All their email are comcast.net addresses. Our email server is sending out the correct forecasts. As far as I can tell, Comcast blacklisted our server as a spam machine on the 14th. I am attempting to resolve the issue with Comcast, but the issue is not in our control. Weather Monday Night Tuesday Tuesday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 28-33 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction N S S Sky Cover Mostly Clear Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Mild weather last week storm helped the older snowpack to settle and strengthen. Our primary avalanche concern is the snow from the end of last week, so check the bonding in the upper layers before committing to steeper slopes. North and northwest winds blew Saturday and into Sunday, redistributing available snow onto east, southeast, south and southwest aspects near and above treeline. Expect to find slabs on steep slopes on these aspects. With care, you can get into steeper terrain and bigger lines, but evaluate the snowpack very carefully. Three avalanches were reported on Saturday. One group watched a natural avalanche run on a windloaded northeast aspect around 11,700 feet. The slide was 2 feet deep, 150 feet across and ran 300 vertical feet. On a ski cut, a skier remotely triggered a slide on an east aspect around 11,200 feet. The slide broke about 50 feet below the skier, on a very thin layer of near surface facets two feet below the surface. A loose avalanche triggered a slab near Durango Mountain Resort, on an east aspect below treeline. The slab broke three feet to the ground. The snowpack will get hammered by the sun and warm temperatures. Expect some wet loose activity on low elevation southeast, south, and southwest aspects. Some of the wet activity could get large, or even trigger a slab in the shallower, low elevation snowpack. Keep that in mind as you plan your return to the trailhead in the afternoon. Avalanche Danger There are pockets of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on northeast, east, southeast, south, and southwest slopes near and above treeline. Expect recently loaded windslabs on slopes steeper than 30 degrees. On other aspects and elevations the danger is MODERATE. Anticipate wet activity on sunny slopes in the afternoon, and plan accordingly. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: avalanche danger, consolidated, high pressure, lee , precipitation , slabby, slabs, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 2/18/2008 2:35:28 PM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing over all but the Wyoming border. There are a few clouds upstream, but nothing exciting. Tonight starts the long promised high pressure. The high pressure ridge along the coast shifts east into the Great Basin. That means Tuesday will be mostly clear, warm, and calm. Tuesday night a low tries to reach under the ridge. The southern mountains will see increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon and mostly cloudy skies by Wednesday. The next storm system should break the ridge down on Wednesday, and it looks like snow will spread across the state Wednesday night. Friends of the CAIC: A number of folks stopped receiving the forecasts Friday. All their email are comcast.net addresses. Our email server is sending out the correct forecasts. As far as I can tell, Comcast blacklisted our server as a spam machine on the 14th. I am attempting to resolve the issue with Comcast, but the issue is not in our control. Weather Monday Night Tuesday Tuesday Night Temperature(°F) 10-15 25-30 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 10-20 Wind Direction NW SW SSW Sky Cover Clear Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion The Sangres have missed out on the bulk of precipitation from storms this year. Winds in the most recent storm blew from the southeast, making some interesting loading patterns. Strong northwesterly winds will now move any available snow back onto south and easterly faces. The older snowpack remains slabby and extremely wind-effected. Over the course of the winter, strong winds scoured snow from fetches, and consolidated it into hard windslabs up to 4 feet thick in lee areas. These are the localized areas where deep slabs avalanches are still possible. Use extra caution on steep slopes near and above treeline with snow loaded on them. Also, we often see increased slide activity with the first warm-up. Wet loose slides will be most likely on sunny slopes, especially below treeline on Saturday. Even a small slide may take you somewhere you do not want to be. Avoid steep terrain until you have checked it out thoroughly. Avalanche Danger We have insufficient information to make an avalanche danger rating for the Sangres at this time. Watch for windslabs on all steep, open slopes. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: MODERATE, avalanche danger, high pressure, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, natural avalanches, settle, slab, slabs, weak layers, windloaded, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/18/2008 2:45:43 PM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing over all but the Wyoming border. There are a few clouds upstream, but nothing exciting. Tonight starts the long promised high pressure. The high pressure ridge along the coast shifts east into the Great Basin. That means Tuesday will be mostly clear, warm, and calm. Tuesday night a low tries to reach under the ridge. The southern mountains will see increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon and mostly cloudy skies by Wednesday. The next storm system should break the ridge down on Wednesday, and it looks like snow will spread across the state Wednesday night. Friends of the CAIC: A number of folks stopped receiving the forecasts Friday. All their email are comcast.net addresses. Our email server is sending out the correct forecasts. As far as I can tell, Comcast blacklisted our server as a spam machine on the 14th. I am attempting to resolve the issue with Comcast, but the issue is not in our control. Weather Monday Night Tuesday Tuesday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 25-30 10-15 Wind Speed(mph) 10-20 10-20 5-15 Wind Direction W WNW W Sky Cover Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Avalanche activity has dropped off with no new reported slides in almost a week. There were several triggered and natural avalanches northwest of Taylor Reservoir on Saturday. Check the Gunnison forecast if you will be riding on the west side of the Sawatch Zone. Recent mild weather helped to settle the snowpack, and the few inches of new snow has not increased the load significantly. Avalanches have become less frequent though weak interfaces persist, keeping human triggered slides possible in most locations. We have a complex snowpack with variable layering, including stacks of both soft and hard slabs and a variety of weak layers. This can be a tricky time. Look for unstable layers near the snowpack surface. Shallow accumulations and winds from a variety of directions have formed windslabs on many slopes near and above treeline. Take a few minutes to poke at the upper layers before you get into avalanche terrain. Deep slabs remain an infrequent but very real problem; particularly near and above treeline. The most likely place to trigger a deep slab is near rock bands, vegetation or low on the slope where slabs are thinner and weak layers are closer to the surface. Once initiated, fractures often propagate long distances and into much deeper snow. Deep slabs are tricky to predict, and often result in very large slides. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Sawatch Zone is MODERATE on all aspects and elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible on steep, windloaded slopes, and have the potential to break deeply. Stability is improving, but we are not out of the woods yet. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability. Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: LOW, MODERATE, avalanche danger, consolidated, crossloading, drifting, drifts, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, sluff, windslabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/18/2008 2:36:24 PM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing over all but the Wyoming border. There are a few clouds upstream, but nothing exciting. Tonight starts the long promised high pressure. The high pressure ridge along the coast shifts east into the Great Basin. That means Tuesday will be mostly clear, warm, and calm. Tuesday night a low tries to reach under the ridge. The southern mountains will see increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon and mostly cloudy skies by Wednesday. The next storm system should break the ridge down on Wednesday, and it looks like snow will spread across the state Wednesday night. Friends of the CAIC: A number of folks stopped receiving the forecasts Friday. All their email are comcast.net addresses. Our email server is sending out the correct forecasts. As far as I can tell, Comcast blacklisted our server as a spam machine on the 14th. I am attempting to resolve the issue with Comcast, but the issue is not in our control. Weather Monday Night Tuesday Tuesday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 25-30 10-15 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 10-20 5-15 Wind Direction W W WSW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Things have gotten quiet in the Steamboat Zone. Snow has been adding up, fast enough to keep things fresh but not enough to tip the stability balance in wind sheltered areas. On windy slopes it is another story. Winds were northwesterly and the ideal speed for drifting some snow from Saturday through Monday. Watch for fresh windslabs on high elevations or exposed slopes. Most of the slabs will be on east to south aspects, but you will find some crossloading all aspects. Those fresh drifts and windslabs are the main avalanche concern. Check the bond within upper layers before committing to steeper terrain. New snow may not stick well to older, harder surfaces and even a relatively small sluff may take you somewhere you do not want to be. The older snowpack has consolidated under the recent mild temperatures, and is now fairly strong. With the problem near the surface, there is no excuse for not digging around. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Steamboat Zone is MODERATE on all aspects near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are possible on all aspects near and above treeline. Watch for recent drifting and loading. The danger is LOW on all aspects below treeline. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [57]caic@qwest.net. Vail ==== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cornice, drift, facets, high pressure, human triggered, human triggered avalanches, ski cut, slab, slabs, suncrusts, wind loaded, windloaded, windloading, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 2/18/2008 2:44:55 PM Forecaster: Spencer Logan Weather Synopsis Skies are clearing over all but the Wyoming border. There are a few clouds upstream, but nothing exciting. Tonight starts the long promised high pressure. The high pressure ridge along the coast shifts east into the Great Basin. That means Tuesday will be mostly clear, warm, and calm. Tuesday night a low tries to reach under the ridge. The southern mountains will see increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon and mostly cloudy skies by Wednesday. The next storm system should break the ridge down on Wednesday, and it looks like snow will spread across the state Wednesday night. Friends of the CAIC: A number of folks stopped receiving the forecasts Friday. All their email are comcast.net addresses. Our email server is sending out the correct forecasts. As far as I can tell, Comcast blacklisted our server as a spam machine on the 14th. I am attempting to resolve the issue with Comcast, but the issue is not in our control. Weather Monday Night Tuesday Tuesday Night Temperature(°F) 5-10 23-28 15-20 Wind Speed(mph) 20-30 15-25 10-20 Wind Direction WNW W W Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Mostly Clear Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion Northwest winds picked up on Saturday afternoon and have continued. Any available snow has been loaded onto east, southeast, and south aspects near and above treeline. Sunday morning, observers reported reactive slabs just below the ridgelines on east through south aspects. The slabs are 2 to 4 feet thick, and sandwich a thin layer of facets on top of suncrusts. When triggered with cornice kicking or ski cuts, the slides were narrow but ran quite far downslope. On Saturday an observer near Breckenridge noted reactive soft slabs in wind loaded areas above treeline. Those slabs propagated widely, but only ran a short distance before stopping. Narrow or wide, these new slabs are our main avalanche concern. Additional snow accumulations will be modest, though winds can drift even a few inches of snow into shallow slabs. Use caution in wind loaded areas where fresh slabs will become increasingly reactive to the weight of a backcountry traveler. Avalanche activity slowed down with just a few slides to report. Saturday there was a skier triggered avalanche in Peru Creek, near Montezuma. It was reported as big, capable of destroying buildings (D4), but no other details. There was another skier triggered slide just south of the Breckenridge ski area. You have to hit just the right (or wrong) spot to trigger a large avalanche. The most likely place to trigger a deep slab is on convexities, near rock bands, vegetation, or low on the slope where slabs are thinner and weak layers are closer to the surface. Once initiated, fractures often propagate into much deeper snow. We still have a complex snowpack where human triggered slides remain possible, so continue to practice smart travel procedures and sound decision making. While triggering a deep slide has become less likely, if you find the right trigger point, the resulting slide may be deep and very large. Avalanche Danger There are pockets of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on windloaded east, southeast, and south aspects near and above treeline. Watch slopes steeper than 30 degrees with fresh windloading. The danger is MODERATE on all other aspects and elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible to probable on steep, windloaded slopes, and have the potential to break deeply. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or experienced signs of instability.