Aspen ===== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, avalanche danger, cross loaded, crowns, crust, entrained, high pressure, human triggered, natural, natural avalanche, natural avalanches, settle, settling, shears, slab, stress, trough, weak layer, weak layers, wind loaded, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Aspen Zone Forecast Issued on 2/27/2008 6:18:21 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Ambient air temperatures below treeline have been getting above freezing Wednesday afternoon, but not by much. The suns angle off the horizon and the refelctivity of the new snow means much of the avaliable suns energy is reflecting back to the atmosphere. We will notice a bigger change in the suns impact on our snow as we get further into March. Near and above treeline moderate to strong winds have helped to keep the snow surface cooler. In some places the warming temperatures have helped to settle and strengthen the upper snowpack layers but in some cases the temperature rises have been too fast and too high so wet loose activity has been spiking upwards. Mainly these areas are in solar collector type scenarios. A brief break from our recent high pressure rolls through tonight into Thursday. A weak and splitting trough grazes the northern zones near sunrise on Thursday. Winds are already on the rise as this next wave approaches. The moisture looks to stay mainly above mountain top level, but a forecasted few inches should help soften the snow surface up a bit, though on southerly aspects it will be more like dust on crust. The system moves out by Thursday afternoon/evening as the high pressure ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin into Saturday. Next change appears to be Sunday when we could hear some roaring as March begins. Weather Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday Temperature(°F) 28-33 16-21 28-33 Wind Speed(mph) 6-16 5-15 8-18 Wind Direction NW WNW WNW Sky Cover Increasing Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion A couple more natural slides were reported off Highlands Ridge on E & SE aspects on Tuesday. Looks like the crowns entrained the last couple of storms. Maybe a half meter thick. These ran up to about 2,000 vertical feet, starting at around 12,400 ft. There was also a small skier triggered slide on a SW aspect Tuesday. Quick pits from observers showed clean and reactive shears on westerly aspects near treeline. So, there are still some instabilities floating around the Aspen backcountry. Rapidly warming temperatures can also stress the connection of the newer snow to the older snow layers. Rapid settling with the warm weather can create some stress at this boundary, so always raise your caution when you see a rapid warm-up The weak layers we have mentioned have been very reactive with the weight of new snow and backcountry travelers added to them the last few days. As a result, we have seen numerous natural and human triggered avalanches on a variety of aspects and elevations. Some other recent slides were reported on the W and SW aspects of Richmond Ridge. Sunday afternoon an observer noted two natural avalanches and one skier triggered avalanche from below treeline in the Richmond Ridge area. There was also a vague report of a larger natural avalanche in Ophir Gully just outside the Aspen Mountain boundaries. On Sunday, a group skiing in Marble triggered another soft slab avalanche well below treeline just above the quarry road. These avalanches have been failing at the interface with this weak layer and the new snow. Although this is just an upper snowpack problem, the amount of new snow and wind we have received in the last few days means that in places these avalanches could snow fail 2-4 feet deep becoming very large and destructive. Above treeline, winds that blew out of the SW and W on Sunday night were very strong adding to our avalanche concerns. This wind has transported snow onto slopes facing N-E-SE at higher elevations and created some tender new wind slabs. Be very aware of wind loaded and cross loaded slopes near and above treeline as they do have the potential to produce some larger avalanches. In areas of the Aspen zone where the snowpack in a bit shallower and weaker, these avalanche may step down to some lower snowpack weak layers as well. To sum up our snowpack right now, you can expect avalanche activity on all aspects and elevations in the backcountry today. Be very aware of your terrain choices and slope angles. Any terrain steeper than 30 degrees should be approached with caution until things settle down again. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Aspen zone is rated at CONSIDERABLE on all aspects and elevations except the SE-S-SW aspects below treeline. The CAIC Aspen office needs your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations. Drop us and e-mail at [57]caic@qwest.net with any observations you have from today. Front Range =========== Current Keywords: MODERATE, avalanche danger, crust, high pressure, settle, settling, shears, slab, trough, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Front Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/27/2008 4:22:42 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Ambient air temperatures below treeline have been getting above freezing Wednesday afternoon, but not by much. The suns angle off the horizon and the refelctivity of the new snow means much of the avaliable suns energy is reflecting back to the atmosphere. We will notice a bigger change in the suns impact on our snow as we get further into March. Near and above treeline moderate to strong winds have helped to keep the snow surface cooler. In some places the warming temperatures have helped to settle and strengthen the upper snowpack layers but in some cases the temperature rises have been too fast and too high so wet loose activity has been spiking upwards. Mainly these areas are in solar collector type scenarios. A brief break from our recent high pressure rolls through tonight into Thursday. A weak and splitting trough grazes the northern zones near sunrise on Thursday. Winds are already on the rise as this next wave approaches. The moisture looks to stay mainly above mountain top level, but a forecasted few inches should help soften the snow surface up a bit, though on southerly aspects it will be more like dust on crust. The system moves out by Thursday afternoon/evening as the high pressure ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin into Saturday. Next change appears to be Sunday when we could hear some roaring as March begins. Weather Wednesday Night Thursday Thursday Night Temperature(°F) 13-18 27-32 10-15 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G40 15-25 G40 15-25 G30 Wind Direction W WNW NW Sky Cover Increasing Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Snow(in) 0-1 Tr-2 0 Snowpack Discussion As we move towards the first week in March (and a return to winter) you have probably noticed more daylight hours and a little warmer feel to the day time temperatures. The snowpack does too. On the less sun exposed northern aspects the snowpack is still in a winter regime, while the E-S-W aspects are settling and gaining some strength. The upper snow pack layers especially so once the sun pops out. We are in the transition phase from winter to spring. This can be a tricky time for judging instabilities in the snowpack. Recent obs said N aspects remained winter like with several clean shears reported in the top 20-40 cm of the snow. Deeper slab problems seem to be easing on the troublesome southerly aspects, but we are still seeing some deeper slab problems on the northerly aspects. March still has a reputation for being deadly, so think about how you transition into spring. As always we recommend moving into the steeper terrain carefully. Our snowpack base is still a winter one, though the upper layers settle and bond faster than they do mid-January. Avalanche danger should ease off quicker at this time of year, but the up coming storm cycle for early March could create some big problems. Try not to let the longer days and all that vitamin D from the sunshine tweak good judgment. A couple skier triggered slides came in from the Loveland Pass area yesterday. These involved the newer snow, maybe a foot deep and ran only a couple hundred feet. One fractured on a subtle convex roll near a rock outcrop, the other in the middle of a small open bowl, both just above treeline. These were not big slides, but showed the classic pockets of instability. CDOT had good results in the Seven Sisters, northerly aspects on Loveland Pass, and on the Stanly Path, southerly aspects, of Berthoud Pass Tuesday morning. Not far away, over in Summit County & Vail area a number of wet loose slides ran mid-afternoon. There was one report of an 8 foot diameter pin-wheel of snow (some people call them cinnamon rolls) that trundled down slope. So we are still seeing fresh slide activity, always a good (bad?) sign of lingering instability. Actually, the best (worst?) sign of instability. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Front Range zone is MODERATE overall. Grand Mesa ========== Current Keywords: LOW, avalanche danger, crust, high pressure, settle, settlement, trough, wet slides, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Grand Mesa Zone Forecast Issued on 2/27/2008 3:47:45 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Ambient air temperatures below treeline have been getting above freezing Wednesday afternoon, but not by much. The suns angle off the horizon and the refelctivity of the new snow means much of the avaliable suns energy is reflecting back to the atmosphere. We will notice a bigger change in the suns impact on our snow as we get further into March. Near and above treeline moderate to strong winds have helped to keep the snow surface cooler. In some places the warming temperatures have helped to settle and strengthen the upper snowpack layers but in some cases the temperature rises have been too fast and too high so wet loose activity has been spiking upwards. Mainly these areas are in solar collector type scenarios. A brief break from our recent high pressure rolls through tonight into Thursday. A weak and splitting trough grazes the northern zones near sunrise on Thursday. Winds are already on the rise as this next wave approaches. The moisture looks to stay mainly above mountain top level, but a forecasted few inches should help soften the snow surface up a bit, though on southerly aspects it will be more like dust on crust. The system moves out by Thursday afternoon/evening as the high pressure ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin into Saturday. Next change appears to be Sunday when we could hear some roaring as March begins. Weather Wednesday Night Thursday Thursday Night Temperature(°F) 17-22 30-35 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 5-15 Wind Direction W NNW NW Sky Cover Increasing Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Snow(in) 0 0-1 0 Snowpack Discussion Warm temperatures continue to aid in the settlement and strengthening of the snowpack. The threat of wet slides will temporarily end on Thursday with the onset of more clouds and increasing winds. The avalanche danger has decreased to LOW over all and should stay that way into the weekend. LOW does not mean avalanches will not run, but the hazard is declining. Avoid terrain traps and enjoy No fresh avalanches have been reported since Monday the 25th. That slide was on a NE aspect at around 9,650 feet. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Grand Mesa zone is overall LOW. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net San Juan North ============== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, crust, high pressure, natural, powder! , settle, slab, trough, wind loading, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Northern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 2/27/2008 6:35:26 AM Forecaster: Mark Rikkers Weather Synopsis Ambient air temperatures below treeline have been getting above freezing Wednesday afternoon, but not by much. The suns angle off the horizon and the refelctivity of the new snow means much of the avaliable suns energy is reflecting back to the atmosphere. We will notice a bigger change in the suns impact on our snow as we get further into March. Near and above treeline moderate to strong winds have helped to keep the snow surface cooler. In some places the warming temperatures have helped to settle and strengthen the upper snowpack layers but in some cases the temperature rises have been too fast and too high so wet loose activity has been spiking upwards. Mainly these areas are in solar collector type scenarios. A brief break from our recent high pressure rolls through tonight into Thursday. A weak and splitting trough grazes the northern zones near sunrise on Thursday. Winds are already on the rise as this next wave approaches. The moisture looks to stay mainly above mountain top level, but a forecasted few inches should help soften the snow surface up a bit, though on southerly aspects it will be more like dust on crust. The system moves out by Thursday afternoon/evening as the high pressure ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin into Saturday. Next change appears to be Sunday when we could hear some roaring as March begins. Weather Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday Temperature(°F) 31-36 20-25 28-33 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 G20 5-15 G20 5-15 G20 Wind Direction WNW WSW W Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Increasing Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion The wind picked up overnight on north-northwest flow - hourly averages rose into the teens and 20s with gusts in the 30s. There is still plenty of snow available for transport on northerly slopes at these speeds. Recent natural activity was observed on most aspects, but high south-southeast slopes were particularly active and these aspects are set up perfectly to receive the bulk of wind loading up high. But enough about the wind, which has been with us all winter long. Let's talk about the sun! That great orb in the sky has been a welcome sight. Folks are radiating happiness, there is a palpable feel of spring in the air, and... the sun is baking our powder! The sun angle is increasing, days are getting longer, and even with the northerly flow, which generally brings cool air with it, temperatures up at 13,000' got into the mid-20s and stayed there overnight. The sun is even starting to sneak its way onto slopes that haven't seen it all winter, and rapidly altering the surface snow on east-south-west aspects in particular. At all elevations in the past few days, the results have been obvious: lots of loose avalanche activity, mostly out of steep rocky outcroppings on the sunnier aspects. Some of these slides are running quite a long way. Remember that these releases do have the power to knock you over and bring you places you don't want to be if they hit you - they also have the potential to cause more destructive slab avalanches to release. On that note, there was a decent natural slab cycle on most aspects and elevations in the past several days from recent snow, wind and sun events, particularly on sunny aspects. While activity has slowed, reports of fresh slides continue to come in. On Tuesday, observers near Silverton reported a natural hard slab release on a WNW aspect above treeline on Red Mt. #2. The dimensions of this "ugly" slide were estimated to be 5'x175'x400'. This slide stepped down into deeper layers after its initial failure - this is a good reminder that persistent weaknesses are persistent! We are in the transition phase of our snowpack, a complicated time when winter and spring-like conditions begin to intermingle. The transition doesn't happen overnight. While the upper snowpack remains the primary concern, we need to remember that there are persistent weaknesses in the snowpack and that deep slab releases remain a possibility. Avalanche Danger Near and above treeline, the avalanche danger in the Northern San Juan is CONSIDERABLE on east-south-west aspects and MODERATE on northerly slopes. Below treeline the danger is MODERATE on all aspects, though loose, wet activity is likely throughout the day as temperatures warm. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or signs of instability. San Juan South ============== Current Keywords: LOW, avalanche danger, crust, high pressure, settle, trough, wet slide, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Southern San Juan Mountain Zone Forecast Issued on 2/27/2008 4:02:47 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Ambient air temperatures below treeline have been getting above freezing Wednesday afternoon, but not by much. The suns angle off the horizon and the refelctivity of the new snow means much of the avaliable suns energy is reflecting back to the atmosphere. We will notice a bigger change in the suns impact on our snow as we get further into March. Near and above treeline moderate to strong winds have helped to keep the snow surface cooler. In some places the warming temperatures have helped to settle and strengthen the upper snowpack layers but in some cases the temperature rises have been too fast and too high so wet loose activity has been spiking upwards. Mainly these areas are in solar collector type scenarios. A brief break from our recent high pressure rolls through tonight into Thursday. A weak and splitting trough grazes the northern zones near sunrise on Thursday. Winds are already on the rise as this next wave approaches. The moisture looks to stay mainly above mountain top level, but a forecasted few inches should help soften the snow surface up a bit, though on southerly aspects it will be more like dust on crust. The system moves out by Thursday afternoon/evening as the high pressure ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin into Saturday. Next change appears to be Sunday when we could hear some roaring as March begins. Weather Wednesday Night Thursday Thursday Night Temperature(°F) 11-16 35-40 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 12-22 G30 12-22 G30 12-22 G 30 Wind Direction SW NW WSW Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Overcast Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion At this time of the year in our most southern zone the snowpack gains strength quickly once a storm cycle has ended. Areas to be more concerned with would be above treeline where it is a little colder, and winds have moved snow around, leaving some areas with a little less snow, and a potentially less stable snowpack, and some areas with tens of feet packed in hard will be stronger. Be cautious around convex rolls, and rock out-crops. The last avalanches reported from the Wolf Creek Pass area were on Monday the 25th, and from the southern Highway 550 corridor the last slides were reported on Saturday the 23rd. On Tuesday several small wet loose slides were reported, and we expect this trend to continue on the next couple of days as temperatures remain warm. We will lower the danger across the South San Juan this afternoon. Some wet slide activity may occur each afternoon for the next several days. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Southern San Juan is LOW. Be aware of an increasing chance for small wet slide activity as temperatures rise. [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or signs of instability. Sangre de Christo ================= Current Keywords: avalanche danger, crust, crusts, facets, high pressure, human triggered avalanches, settle, trough, wet slide, wind drifts, wind slabs, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sangre De Cristo Zone Forecast Issued on 2/27/2008 3:34:54 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Ambient air temperatures below treeline have been getting above freezing Wednesday afternoon, but not by much. The suns angle off the horizon and the refelctivity of the new snow means much of the avaliable suns energy is reflecting back to the atmosphere. We will notice a bigger change in the suns impact on our snow as we get further into March. Near and above treeline moderate to strong winds have helped to keep the snow surface cooler. In some places the warming temperatures have helped to settle and strengthen the upper snowpack layers but in some cases the temperature rises have been too fast and too high so wet loose activity has been spiking upwards. Mainly these areas are in solar collector type scenarios. A brief break from our recent high pressure rolls through tonight into Thursday. A weak and splitting trough grazes the northern zones near sunrise on Thursday. Winds are already on the rise as this next wave approaches. The moisture looks to stay mainly above mountain top level, but a forecasted few inches should help soften the snow surface up a bit, though on southerly aspects it will be more like dust on crust. The system moves out by Thursday afternoon/evening as the high pressure ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin into Saturday. Next change appears to be Sunday when we could hear some roaring as March begins. Weather Wednesday Night Thursday Thursday Night Temperature(°F) 17-22 30-35 12-17 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G40 15-25 G40 15-25 G40 Wind Direction SW WNW NW Sky Cover Increasing Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Snow(in) 0 0 0 Snowpack Discussion The Sangres have received plenty of wind this winter resulting in a multitude of wind slabs. Many of these windslabs sit on weak facets and may be reactive to the weight of a backcountry traveler. Sun crusts have formed on sunny aspects. It has been a long time since we have gotten any obs from the Sangres. AlI I can tell is that they have snow, because it is visibile on the satellite images. I suspect warm temps too, but those will cool off on Thursday, reducing the risk of wet slide activity. Avalanche Danger We have insufficient information to make an avalanche danger rating for the Sangres at this time. Human triggered avalanches are a concern where new snow and fresh wind drifts have accumulated, and they have the potential to break into snow layers near the ground. Please send observations from this or any other zone to [57]caic@qwest.net Sawatch ======= Current Keywords: MODERATE, avalanche danger, crust, high pressure, lee , path, settle, trough, wet slide, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Sawatch Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/27/2008 4:12:47 PM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Ambient air temperatures below treeline have been getting above freezing Wednesday afternoon, but not by much. The suns angle off the horizon and the refelctivity of the new snow means much of the avaliable suns energy is reflecting back to the atmosphere. We will notice a bigger change in the suns impact on our snow as we get further into March. Near and above treeline moderate to strong winds have helped to keep the snow surface cooler. In some places the warming temperatures have helped to settle and strengthen the upper snowpack layers but in some cases the temperature rises have been too fast and too high so wet loose activity has been spiking upwards. Mainly these areas are in solar collector type scenarios. A brief break from our recent high pressure rolls through tonight into Thursday. A weak and splitting trough grazes the northern zones near sunrise on Thursday. Winds are already on the rise as this next wave approaches. The moisture looks to stay mainly above mountain top level, but a forecasted few inches should help soften the snow surface up a bit, though on southerly aspects it will be more like dust on crust. The system moves out by Thursday afternoon/evening as the high pressure ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin into Saturday. Next change appears to be Sunday when we could hear some roaring as March begins. Weather Wednesday Night Thursday Thursday Night Temperature(°F) 14-19 25-30 10-15 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G40 15-25 G40 15-25 G40 Wind Direction WSW WNW NW Sky Cover Increasing Mostly Cloudy Decreasing Snow(in) 0 0-1 0 Snowpack Discussion A slide was reported on Clover Mountain near Monarch Pass this morning. This slide started above treeline and ran off a SE aspect. The observer noted it was as big as he had seen this path run in quite some time. It probably ran on the 26th. Prior to this slide, the last reported avalanche in the Sawatch zone was back on the 19th, on the south side of Independence Pass. With the approaching cooler air for Thursday, the threat of wet slide activity will end. Moderate to strong winds will add a little more wind deposited snow onto lee aspects, primarily NE-S aspects. These would be shallow and likely would not run far. March looks to arrive like a lion, if you are out exploring the next few days, take a look at what surfaces the new snow will fall on. The next cycle could be a good snow producer, so we do expect avalanche dangers to increase as we move into the new month. Continue to choose your terrain and slope angles wisely. Being on or below slopes steeper than 35 degrees still hold risks. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Sawatch zone is MODERATE over all. Human triggered avalanches arre possible, [57]Please let us know if you see any avalanche activity or signs of instability. Steamboat ========= Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, cross-loaded, crust, high pressure, human triggered, settle, slab, stress, trough, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Steamboat and Parks Range Zone Forecast Issued on 2/27/2008 5:48:13 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Ambient air temperatures below treeline have been getting above freezing Wednesday afternoon, but not by much. The suns angle off the horizon and the refelctivity of the new snow means much of the avaliable suns energy is reflecting back to the atmosphere. We will notice a bigger change in the suns impact on our snow as we get further into March. Near and above treeline moderate to strong winds have helped to keep the snow surface cooler. In some places the warming temperatures have helped to settle and strengthen the upper snowpack layers but in some cases the temperature rises have been too fast and too high so wet loose activity has been spiking upwards. Mainly these areas are in solar collector type scenarios. A brief break from our recent high pressure rolls through tonight into Thursday. A weak and splitting trough grazes the northern zones near sunrise on Thursday. Winds are already on the rise as this next wave approaches. The moisture looks to stay mainly above mountain top level, but a forecasted few inches should help soften the snow surface up a bit, though on southerly aspects it will be more like dust on crust. The system moves out by Thursday afternoon/evening as the high pressure ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin into Saturday. Next change appears to be Sunday when we could hear some roaring as March begins. Weather Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday Temperature(°F) 31-36 13-18 30-35 Wind Speed(mph) 5-15 5-15 10-20 Wind Direction W WSW W Sky Cover Increasing Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0-1 Tr-2 Snowpack Discussion A report came in Tuesday afternoon from observers that were in looking at the slide from Monday in Fish Creek Canyon noted a couple slides triggered from around 100 feet away on N aspects around 9,200 ft. These included the newer snow only. There was also one skier triggered slide and one person went for a short ride and was partially buried. No injuries, just a bit spooked. The avalanche on Monday afternoon in Lower Fish Creek Canyon that caught three skiers started while a party of 3 was jumping a rock and the third person released a slab that cracked above the group. Fortunately, no one was injured but some equipment was lost. The slide started at 9300' on a N aspect, 40-45 degrees, 10" deep, 50' wide, and 150' long. On Sunday, four skiers reported stable conditions in separate lines of Grand Jury northwest of Steamboat Lake. They noted some cross-loaded areas close to ridge lines that should be avoided. Yesterdays warm-up will have helped settle the upper snowpack layers. The due north aspects that are sheltered from any solar gain may be the exception. These could remain a little tender today. With another warm day on tap, all aspects should have less stress between layers by Thursday morning. We will lower the danger a bit this morning across the zone. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Steamboat Zone is CONSIDERABLE on NW-NE aspects all elevations, MODERATE elsewhere. Human triggered slides involving new snow sliding on the old snow surface are probable. If you have any observations or data to share, please send them to [57]caic@qwest.net. Vail ==== Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, crust, high pressure, settle, settling, shears, slab, trough, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 2/27/2008 6:16:49 AM Forecaster: Scott Toepfer Weather Synopsis Ambient air temperatures below treeline have been getting above freezing Wednesday afternoon, but not by much. The suns angle off the horizon and the refelctivity of the new snow means much of the avaliable suns energy is reflecting back to the atmosphere. We will notice a bigger change in the suns impact on our snow as we get further into March. Near and above treeline moderate to strong winds have helped to keep the snow surface cooler. In some places the warming temperatures have helped to settle and strengthen the upper snowpack layers but in some cases the temperature rises have been too fast and too high so wet loose activity has been spiking upwards. Mainly these areas are in solar collector type scenarios. A brief break from our recent high pressure rolls through tonight into Thursday. A weak and splitting trough grazes the northern zones near sunrise on Thursday. Winds are already on the rise as this next wave approaches. The moisture looks to stay mainly above mountain top level, but a forecasted few inches should help soften the snow surface up a bit, though on southerly aspects it will be more like dust on crust. The system moves out by Thursday afternoon/evening as the high pressure ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin into Saturday. Next change appears to be Sunday when we could hear some roaring as March begins. Weather Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday Temperature(°F) 22-27 13-18 25-30 Wind Speed(mph) 4-14 5-15 7-17 Wind Direction W WSW W Sky Cover Increasing Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 0 0-1 Tr-2 Snowpack Discussion As we move towards the first week in March (and a return to winter) you have probably noticed more daylight hours and a little warmer feel to the day time temperatures. The snowpack does too. On the less sun exposed northern aspects the snowpack is still in a winter regime, while the E-S-W aspects are settling and gaining some strength. The upper snow pack layers especially so once the sun pops out. We are in the transition phase from winter to spring. This can be a tricky time for judging instabilities in the snowpack. Recent obs said N aspects remained winter like with several clean shears reported in the top 20-40 cm of the snow. Deeper slab problems seem to be easing on the troublesome southerly aspects, but we are still seeing some deeper slab problems on the northerly aspects. March still has a reputation for being deadly, so think about how you transition into spring. As always we recommend moving into the steeper terrain carefully. Our snowpack base is still a winter one, though the upper layers settle and bond faster than they do mid-January. Avalanche danger should ease off quicker at this time of year, but the up coming storm cycle for early March could create some big problems. Try not to let the longer days and all that vitamin D from the sunshine tweak good judgment. A couple skier triggered slides came in from the Loveland Pass area yesterday. These involved the newer snow, maybe a foot deep and ran only a couple hundred feet. One fractured on a subtle convex roll near a rock outcrop, the other in the middle of a small open bowl, both just above treeline. These were not big slides, but showed the classic pockets of instability. CDOT had good results in the Seven Sisters, northerly aspects on Loveland Pass, and on the Stanly Path, southerly aspects, of Berthoud Pass Tuesday morning. In Tenmile Canyon of Summit County and the Vail area a number of wet loose slides ran mid-afternoon, nothing very big, but good knee wrenchers if you got tangled up with one. There was one report of an 8 foot diameter pin-wheel of snow (some people call them cinnamon rolls) that trundled down slope. So we are still seeing fresh slide activity, always a good (bad?) sign of lingering instability. Actually, the best (worst?) sign of instability. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Vail-Summit zone is rated CONSIDERABLE on N-E-S aspects near and above treeline, MODERATE elsewhere. Thanx to all those that have sent us recent obs. Most appreciated.