Colorado Avalanche Bulletins

This bulletin is from the CAIC, which is an agency of the State of Colorado.

Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) Advisory

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Issued 03/18/2010 7:23 AM by Scott Toepfer

Highlights

One more scorcher Thursday before winter returns Thursday night. Over night low temperatures were fairly mild so wet slide potential begins a little earlier today. There have been no slides reported to the center in March from this zone.

One more day to be concerned with wet slide activity.

The avalanche danger for the Gunnison zone has on SE-SW-W aspects near and below treeline for wet slide activity this afternoon.

We have pockets of on SW-W-N-NE due to some wind loaded pockets in steeper terrain after recent easterly winds. It is elsewhere.

Snow & Avalanche Discussion

Little in the way of new snow recently across the zone. The eastern end had the best results from the upslope and so have the more reactive snowpack. Winds were strong primarily from the east to northeast. There was not a lot of available snow to move across the western end ofthe zone, but the east side had much more snow and has seen the recent avalanche activity. Expect to find some stiff wind slab on the westerly aspects above treeline. Stiff wind slab sitting on top of buried weak layers and a foundation of depth hoar are the areas of greatest concern for triggered slides. You will most likely fine these areas on steep exposed slopes above treeline. Continue to use caution around steep, shady, wind-affected slopes. A persistent weak layer remains in the midpack, and the basal facets have not gained strength yet on shadier slopes above treeline. As temperatures warm through Wednesday, you must also watch for the development of wet, loose activity on sunny, lower elevation aspects. Plan your trips accordingly so that you avoid these areas at the end of your tours.

Weather Discussion

A complex weather system is dropping southward from Canada today. This means our tables in the details section are not going to get all the info in so reading the text below for specifics will help see a pattern....of sorts...Might be a good idea to check out the afternoon weather update too...This weather system is a tough one.

One more warm day, close to as warm as Wednesday when temperatures were above freezing at 14,000 ft in numerous locations. Increasing afternoon clouds and winds will help suppress a complete melt-down this afternoon. Next comes the hard part...The short wave trough slips into northern Colorado near sunset, Winds shift from WSW across the west slope to easterly on the east side of the Divide around 10 pm...

getting east slope snowfalls underway. Winds along and just west of the divide are confused but eventually trend easterly, remaining more northerly further west. On Friday they trend easterly which makes it tough for snowfall accums west of the Divide.

In the Central zones winds become more NW overnight, and upslope easterly winds get underway around mid-morning Friday. Further west winds are WNW but the atmosphere seems a little moisture starved.

In the San Juan moisture looks to arrive around 3 AM with winds shifting from SW to NW overnight. This pattern favors the northern portion of the zone. These winds remain NW Friday except the Sangre's which switch to easterly mid-morning.

All zones see high temperatures early Friday morning with colder air following for some chilly daytime highs. As winds become easterly they should increase along the Divide, Sawatch, Steamboat and the Sangre's.

Models don't show anything big, but the downslope component could bring some 50 mph gusts at times.

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