Colorado Avalanche Bulletins

This bulletin is from the CAIC, which is an agency of the State of Colorado.

Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) Advisory

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Issued 03/17/2010 6:07 AM by Scott Toepfer

Highlights

Mild temperatures and light winds are allowing the recent storm snow to settle quickly across the southern San Juan. A similar day on tap for Wednesday, warm, light winds, and a few high thin clouds. Wet slide activity in the late afternoon from steep terrain where rocks are exposed to help spread melting water into the pack are also a concern.

In general the danger is trending towards

aspects. Otherwise danger trending

The avalanche danger for the Southern San Juan is above treeline on NW-NE-SE aspects, and on N-NE-E aspects near treeline. It is elsewhere.

Snow & Avalanche Discussion

Around a foot of new snow last weekend has settled and is bonding to older snowpack layers. A buried surface hoar layer is randomly spread around the colder aspects near treeline. It's been several days since the last reported slide activity. The older activity ran on N-NE-E aspects near treeline.

The next several days will bring abundant sunshine and mild temperatures. While it will feel like spring, the snowpack near and above treeline elevations will retain its winter characteristics. The snowpack foundation may be weaker in shallower areas and these are regions to be cautious while approaching steep slopes. Look for exposed rock islands as these would be areas where it would be easier to trigger weak layers to fail. An observer noted a buried surface hoar layer about two feet below the snow surface on a north aspect near Wolf Creek Pass. At lower elevations, sunny aspects are starting the transition to a spring snowpack. Expect to find sluffing within the new snow into Thursday as temperatures warm. Avoid terrain traps and be aware of your surroundings. Shallow slides may not have big consequences unless they strain you through trees or push you over cliffs.

Weather Discussion

The high pressure ridge to our west continues to inch eastward. There are some high clouds pushing over the ridge and these will be over us today into Thursday. Wednesday looks to be as warm as Tuesday. Thursday looks similar, although increasing clouds in front of the next trough on Thursday afternoon will keep the snowpack from getting as warm. The next storm system drops southward out of Canada and will bring colder temperatures as well as snow for Thursday night into Friday. Initially it favors the northern and central zones, but there is a short wave impulse for the San Juan near sunrise Friday. A second impulse crosses the state Friday night, again favoring the north and central zones. Our weather looks to begin drying Saturday afternoon as a high pressure ridge builds to the west.

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