This is Matt Lutz of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center
 with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for
 Wednesday, December 19, 2007 at 7:30 am.

 Blaine County & the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche Center bring you
 this advisory.

 Bottom Line:
 Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be MODERATE with
 isolated areas of CONSIDERABLE along north, northwest and
 northeast facing ridgelines at higher elevations. Over the last 4 days
 we have picked up between 6 to 12 inches of low density snow. This
 snow is sitting on a widespread weak old snow surface. However I do
 not believe that there is currently enough newer snow to create any
 widespread instability.

 The weather forecast is calling for another storm to drop another 8 to
 16 inches of snow. This storm is expected to start this afternoon or
 evening. The avalanche danger will increase as this next system starts
 to impact our forecast area.

 Primary Avalanche Concern:
 
 
 
 
 Yesterday afternoon saw just enough southerly wind to create shallow
 sensitive soft slabs along northerly facing ridgelines at elevations
 above 9000 feet. Although yesterday I did not witness any natural
 avalanching I was able to easily ski cut small thin wind slabs along
 high elevation ridgelines.

 Secondary Avalanche Concern:
 
 
 
 
 Since Saturday we have picked up between 6 to 12 inches of new snow,
 with the North Valley and Sawtooth Mountains receiving the most. This
 new snow fell onto a widespread weak old snow surface. In areas with
 less than 2 to 3 feet of old snow the entire snowpack is weak and
 sugary. In areas of the North Valley and Sawtooth Mountains that have
 more than 3 feet of old snow, the deep snow pack is more consolidated,
 but the old surface snow is faceted and sugary.

 The newer snow has probably not yet accumulated enough weight to
 create a widespread instability. The exception to this could be areas
 of the Sawtooth Mountains that may have seen greater accumulation. I
 believe that with another 6 to 12 inches of additional snow the
 avalanche danger will increase. If we see significant precipitation
 intensity and/or strong winds with this next storm expect the
 avalanche danger to rise rapidly.

 As you travel in the backcountry today look out for natural activity,
 whumpfing, cracking and low stability test scores as evidence of the
 avalanche danger increasing. Continue to look at the snow as you move
 from aspect to aspect and change in elevation. If you observe any
 signs of instability, move to low angle terrain that will not likely
 avalanche.

 Current Conditions:
 Nice soft snow riding conditions exist in most locations. The South
 and Central Valley snowpack is still very thin and weak. The North
 Valley and Sawtooth Mountains have a deeper and more supportable
 snowpack but it is still possible to find many rocks, snow snakes and
 bugger trees that are barely covered. Ridgeline winds are light to
 moderate out of the southwest and temperatures are in the mid teens to
 mid twenties.

 Mountain Weather Forecast:
 Today our forecast area should see cloudy skies with occasional snow
 showers. This afternoon or evening another storm is expected to kick
 in and last through Thursday. This next storm is expected to be
 slightly warmer and windier than yesterdays storm. Accumulations are
 expected to be between 8 to 16 inches in mountain locations with some
 mountain areas seeing upwards of 20 inches. Valley locations can
 expect between 5 to 10 inches of new snow.

 Tip for the day:
 Early season variable conditions can be difficult to forecast. Keep
 your own eyes open and look for signs of instability.