This is Matt Lutz of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for Wednesday, December 26, 2007 at 7:30 am. Blaine County & the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche Center bring you this advisory. Bottom Line: Today the overall avalanche danger is estimated to be MODERATE, but there are localized areas of CONSIDERABLE danger on steep recently wind loaded slopes. The snowpack is currently not very trustworthy in my opinion. This is due to a highly variable early season snowpack, the presence of persistent weak layers and recent widespread wind activity. Slope by slope evaluation should take place as you move through the backcountry. Todays forecast calls for 2 to 4 more inches of new snow in the high country accompanied by light to moderate northwesterly winds. If the weather forecast pans out expect further wind slab development and increasing danger on wind deposited slopes. Primary Avalanche Concern: The South and Central Valley still have a rather thin snowpack which is generally very weak throughout. Steep wind loaded terrain in the South and Central Valley could still produce an avalanche with the right trigger. The North Valley, Salmon Headwaters and Sawtooth Mountains have a generally deeper and stronger snowpack, but persistent faceted grains can still be found in many locations. Solar aspects, ridgelines and exposed high elevation terrain in these areas likely have large grain facets near the bottom of the snowpack. The near surface facets that developed in mid December are likely slowly gaining strength, but are still present. Additionally there is now around 2 to 3 feet of newer snow sitting on top of that potential weak layer. Secondary Avalanche Concern: Over the last week we have seen a few wind events blow through our forecast area. Christmas Eve saw a wind event that seemed to affect almost all exposed slopes regardless of elevation. Be aware of recently deposited wind slabs, especially in areas with an overall thin weak snowpack and along steep exposed ridgelines. Many of these wind affected areas will be visually obvious at least until they get buried with a few inches of new snow. Other clues to their presence are texture changes, supportable hollow sounding slabs, cracking, whumpfing and recent natural releases in similar terrain. Additional Discussion As I mentioned earlier in this report the snowpack is currently overall not very trustworthy. The snow pack varies a lot depending where you go. For instance the Sawtooth Mountains have a much deeper and generally stronger snow pack than the South and Central Valleys. Reports from the Soldier Mountain area suggest that they received more snow in the last week and a half than the Ketchum area did however they typically also receive more wind. There are certainly places folks can go right now and find reasonably safe snow to recreate on. However if folks were looking to get involved with an avalanche, there are areas in which that could also happen. Slope by slope evaluation, conservative decision making and good mountain travel techniques should remain a priority. Current Conditions: Nice soft snow riding can be found in sheltered terrain in most areas. Exposed terrain offers a mixed bag of soft snow to semi punchy wind slab due to recent winds. Ketchum is currently under clear skies. Ambient temperatures at elevation are currently in the low single digits, but with the wind chill factored in the temperature will likely feel below zero. Winds are light with moderate gusts out of the northwest. Mountain Weather Forecast: Scattered snow showers are expected today as another weak system moves into our area this morning, lasting until mid afternoon. Today expect light to moderate northwest winds with daytime ridge top temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees. Several weak systems are expected to roll through over the next few days. Temperatures will remain cold until Friday when another small system should usher in some milder air. Our next shot at a decent sized storm will be Saturday.