This is Chris Lundy of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center
 with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for
 Monday, December 31, 2007 at 7:30 am.

 Bottom Line:
 Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be CONSIDERABLE on
 steep, wind loaded slopes along upper elevation ridgelines. On slopes
 sheltered from recent winds the avalanche danger is estimated to be
 MODERATE.

 Strong west to northwest winds over the past 24-48 hours have created
 wind slabs that were sensitive yesterday and will likely remain touchy
 today. It remains possible to trigger a slide in isolated pockets of
 weak, sugary snow existing primarily in shallow areas, steep and rocky
 terrain, or in the high alpine. In our far northern and western
 mountains where more recent snow has fallen, it may be possible to
 trigger a soft surface slab around 1-2 feet deep on steep slopes.

 Primary Avalanche Concern:
 
 
 
 
 The winds have decreased since yesterday but are still blowing strong
 enough to transport the fluffy new snow that has fallen over the past
 several days. On Titus Ridge yesterday I found sensitive wind slabs
 that I could release with small cornice drops. These were about 6-10
 inches deep and would propagate up to 50 feet wide. I observed
 shooting cracks when stomping around on thicker drifts. In exposed,
 upper elevation terrain and in alpine areas, I think that these wind
 slabs could be large enough to produce a decent sized avalanche that
 you would not want to be involved with. Fortunately the fresh wind
 drifts seem to be confined to the ridge tops so are easily avoided.

 In the South and Central Valleys, less snow available for transport
 means that wind slabs will be more isolated. However, any wind slab
 that does exist will have formed atop a very weak, faceted snowpack
 that will have a difficult time supporting the extra weight.

 Secondary Avalanche Concern:
 
 
 
 
 In the South and Central Valleys weak, faceted snow is the norm, but
 there is generally not enough of a slab to cause a widespread problem.

 The obvious exception is where past or recent winds have developed a
 thicker slab over the gutless, sugary snow.

 In the North Valley, Salmon Headwaters, and Sawtooths weaker snow also
 exists, but it is more isolated and pockety in nature. Yesterday above
 Titus Lake, I triggered a small pocket on a very steep, rocky slope
 where snowfall from the last two weeks was sitting atop loose, sugary
 snow (see picture below). It broke out 20 feet wide and about 1.5 feet
 deep, but in larger scale terrain, this could have been a more
 significant slide capable of burying a skier or rider. By sticking to
 more uniform slopes and avoiding steep, rocky terrain that tends to
 harbor early season faceted snow, you are much less likely to happen
 upon one of these weak spots.

 Heads up for the Salmon Headwaters and Sawtooths:
 This area has received much more snow over the past few days and we
 havent received any observations to indicate how well it is bonding.

 If you head into these areas, evaluate steep slopes carefully as it
 may be possible to trigger a soft surface slab 1-2 feet deep.

 Current Conditions:
 Ridgeline winds have lessened overnight but are still averaging 10-20
 mph from the northwest. Temperatures this morning range from the
 single digits to a few degrees below zero under partly cloudy skies.

 Since yesterday morning, most of our northern mountains picked up
 another 2-4 inches of new snow, with the notable exception of the
 Salmon Headwaters area, where 8-12 inches of snow fell. Snowfall
 totals since last Friday are around 2-4 inches in the mountains around
 Ketchum, 8-12 inches in the North Valley, and 1-2 feet in the Salmon
 Headwaters and Sawtooth Mountains.

 Mountain Weather Forecast:
 A ridge of high pressure is just entering the Pacific Northwest and
 should give us fair weather for the next several days. Skies today
 should be partly cloudy, and upper elevation temperatures are expected
 to reach the upper single digits to low teens. Down in the valley,
 high temperatures should reach the low 20s. Ridgeline winds will
 continue to blow at 10-20 mph from the northwest, easing later in the
 day.