This is Chris Lundy of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for Tuesday, January 1, 2008 at 7:30 am. The Wattis Dumke Foundation & the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche Center bring you this advisory. Special Announcement: The Ketchum RD has closed the southerly facing Warm Springs slopes for winter elk range. Call 622-5371 for more details. Bottom Line: Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be MODERATE. A Moderate danger means that it remains possible to trigger an avalanche in some locations. Triggered and natural slides observed yesterday in wind loaded terrain reiterate the need to use caution on any steep slope with recent deposits of wind drifted snow, especially where wind slabs are sitting atop faceted snow. It is also possible to trigger a slide in isolated pockets of weak, sugary snow existing primarily in shallow areas, steep and rocky terrain, or in the high alpine. Primary Avalanche Concern: Yesterday, a wind slab was apparently triggered immediately north of the top of Galena Summit. This is the same slope that killed two young men in 1996. The slab was about 30 feet wide and up to 3 feet deep (see photos below). It ran on old faceted snow lying beneath the recent wind deposit. Two large wind-related avalanches released yesterday in the alpine terrain near Easley Peak in the Boulder Mountains, and recent naturals were reported on wind loaded slopes in a side canyon of the East Fork of the Big Wood in the South Valley. This past weekends wind event loaded many leeward slopes while leaving many untouched, requiring a little detective work to avoid wind drifted snow. By now many of these wind slabs will have bonded to the underlying snow, but any drift that has formed atop weak, sugary snow should still be avoided. Secondary Avalanche Concern: In the South and Central Valleys faceted snow can be found under a slab of variable thickness. In most places there is not quite enough load to cause unstable conditions, but where there is more than about a foot of snow atop the weak facets, it could be possible to trigger a slide on a steep enough slope. As mentioned above, youll want to use extra caution where past or recent winds have developed a thicker or denser slab over the gutless, sugary snow. In the North Valley, Salmon Headwaters, and Sawtooths weaker snow also exists, but it is more isolated and pockety in nature. Yesterday, I was up Frenchmans Creek in the Salmon Headwaters area, where the snowpack is generally deeper and consequently stronger. But even in this area I was still able to find areas where the snowpack was shallow and punchy, and I caused two large collapses with cracks propagating 50 feet wide. If these slopes had been steeper, I am almost certain they would have avalanched. Many if not most slopes throughout our area are stable, yet we keep seeing evidence that you could trigger a slide in some locations. Warming mountain temperatures today combined with sunshine may make these weak spots even touchier. By sticking to more uniform slopes and avoiding steep, rocky terrain or shallow, punchy areas, you are much less likely to happen upon one of these weak spots. Current Conditions: Out like a lion, in like a lamb isnt that how the New Years phrase goes? No wait, thats for March weather. Well, in any case, the stormy weather of the past two weeks has give way to a benign start to the New Year. Yesterday most mountain weather stations only reported temperatures reaching the single digits to low teens, but sunshine gave welcome relief from the cold air. Winds during the past 24 hours have been fairly light, but have increased slightly this morning and are currently blowing 15-20 mph from the west to northwest. Temperatures this morning are inverted, with below zero temps in the valley and single digits above in the high country. Backcountry conditions are only good if youre into the bluebird powder sort of thing. As for me, Im only out there because its my job. Fortunately the weekends wind had little effect on the snow conditions, and excellent powder conditions can be found almost anywhere there is enough snow to ski or ride. Mountain Weather Forecast: High pressure will continue to dominate today, producing partly cloudy skies and warmer mountain temperatures. Upper elevation temps should reach the low to mid 20s, and although its hard to believe now, the valley should climb to a forecasted high of 29 degrees. Ridgeline winds should blow 5-15 mph from the west, shifting southwest as the ridge axis passes overhead.