This is Matt Lutz of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for Thursday, January 10, 2008 at 7:30 am. The Sun Valley Telemark Series & Smiley Creek Lodge & the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche Center bring you this advisory. Bottom Line: Today the avalanche danger in the South and Central Valley is estimated to be CONSIDERABLE. In the South and Central Valley weak faceted snow is widespread. The avalanche danger in the North Valley and Sawtooth Mountains is estimated to be MODERATE, but I would approach these areas as if the danger were CONSIDERABLE. In the North Valley and Sawtooth Mountains faceted layers still exist but finding their patterns is proving to be difficult. Faceted snow layers within the snowpack are still a major concern throughout our forecast area. Human triggered avalanches are definitely possible. Primary Avalanche Concern: The South and Central Valley have widespread faceted sugary snow on almost every aspect and at all elevations. The weakest faceted layers are deep within the snow pack and below 8500 feet. Last weekends storm snow has now consolidated into a homogeneous slab overlying this very weak snow. Although you are not likely to see a lot of natural avalanche activity in the South and Central Valley today the possibility for human triggered avalanches is good. Be especially careful on steep or wind loaded slopes. Watch out for cracking, whumpfing, hollow feeling slabs and natural activity as key indicators of unstable snow. The North Valley and Sawtooth Mountains have a generally deeper and stronger snowpack, but faceted layers are still a major concern and safety hazard. By definition the danger rating in these areas is MODERATE but I would approach terrain in these areas as if the danger rating were CONSIDERABLE. See the non-technical Glossary on our links page for exact definitions. Yesterday the East Bowl of Butterfield avalanched as a result of a remote skier trigger. This slide was 2 to 3 feet deep, 100 feet wide and ran over 1000 vertical feet. The scary thing about this slide was that it was remotely triggered from about 500 feet away, and the starting zone was only 32 degrees. The slope was east facing at 9600 feet. The failure layer appears to have been a faceted snow layer about 3 feet deep. Yesterday I was in the Salmon Headwaters area poking around and found evidence of numerous natural avalanches that probably came out over the weekend. I am fairly sure that at least 2 of the slides that I observed probably failed on a deep facet layer and both of these were on an east aspect. Additionally I dug a pit at 8750 feet on an east aspect. The total snowpack depth was 7 feet. I was able to see multiple shears although there were 2 that I found significant. The first was a clean shear down about 4.5 feet that failed on a faceted snow layer. The second was down about 2.5 feet. This layer was about an inch thick and consisted of graupel that probably fell last Friday afternoon during the storm. This was probably the shear layer that resulted in the other natural avalanches that I observed. As far as finding patterns for these faceted snow layers, my best guess is that east and north facing slopes have a greater potential for failure. Additionally observations and reports indicate the possibility of avalanches on slopes greater than 32 degrees and on slopes that do not normally avalanche on most years. Sorry to be so vague but I do not honestly see a clear pattern evolving just yet. Slope by slope analysis and conservative decision making should be at the forefront of your mind for the near future. Secondary Avalanche Concern: This morning the winds are forecast to be moderate with occasional stronger gusts out of the southwest. The southern most terrain and Soldier Mountain area have seen strong westerly winds over the last 24 hours. There is currently plenty of low density snow available for transport. This combination of factors will likely cause wind slab formation on north, northeast and east facing exposed slopes and ridgelines at higher elevations. Again, watch out for cracking, whumpfing, hollow feeling slabs and natural activity as key indicators of unstable snow. Current Conditions: Beautiful powder snow riding conditions predominate throughout our forecast area. Definitely get out there and enjoy, but please just be careful. Ketchum is waking up to light snowfall with a temperature of 15 degrees. Ridge top winds are light out of southwest with moderate gusts. Ridge top temperatures are hovering around 10 degrees. Mountain Weather Forecast: Today expect cloudy conditions with another couple of inches of snowfall throughout the day. Ridgeline daytime high temperatures will be around 18 to 24 degrees and valley temperatures around 30 degrees. 24 hour snow totals for Baldy should be around 2 to 4 inches and for Titus 2 to 6 inches. In the morning ridge top winds will be moderate out of the southwest decreasing through the day.