This is Chris Lundy of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center
 with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for
 Monday, January 14, 2008 at 7:30 am.

 Bottom Line:
 Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be MODERATE. Layers of
 faceted snow exist on many slopes throughout our region. In the South
 and Central Valley, weak, sugary snow is widespread and can be found
 buried 1-2 feet deep. As you head north and west towards Galena
 Summit, the western Smokies, and the Sawtooth Mountains, the
 distribution of the facets becomes more sporadic and difficult to
 evaluate. In some locations, facet layers exist around 2-3 feet deep
 and also at the ground. Due to natural and triggered avalanches over
 the past 5 days and the difficulty of evaluating our current avalanche
 conditions, a cautious and conservative approach is still recommended.

 Primary Avalanche Concern:
 
 
 
 
 In the South and Central Valley, the pattern of instability is a
 little less complicated. On nearly every slope, weak, sugary snow can
 be found buried 1-2 feet deep. Although the snowpack is gaining
 stability, there is no getting around the very poor layering of the
 snowpack. To illustrate that the facets havent quite give up the
 ghost, a natural slab avalanche released yesterday on the northern
 aspect of the mountain behind Gimlet, probably as a result of
 yesterdays warming temperatures.

 Besides the out of bounds terrain on Baldy, most backcountry skiers
 and riders are recreating north and west of Ketchum where the
 distribution of the facet layers becomes more sporadic and less
 predictable. Yesterday I poked around on Durrance and while the
 snowpack looks pretty good in some places, in others it still shows
 the possibility of triggering a slide. In particular, a snowpit on the
 west side of Durrance in Konrad Creek grabbed my attention (check out
 the video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AphiVHsJy1Y ). Stability
 tests failed with moderate to hard force, but did so very cleanly on a
 thin layer of facets about 2 feet deep. These facets were on the snow
 surface prior to the Jan 4-5 storm. A very similar layering was
 responsible for at least several of the recent natural and triggered
 slides. What this snowpit told me is that the ability to propagate a
 fracture still exists in some places, all you need to do is find a
 weaker spot to trigger it.

 No human triggered slides were reported yesterday, and I think things
 are settling down in the backcountry. The stability will continue to
 improve through the week with little significant weather in the
 forecast. However the recent spate of natural and triggered slides
 over the past five days indicates that we are dealing with somewhat
 unusual conditions and it remains possible to trigger an avalanche in
 the right (or wrong) spot. Unfortunately it is extremely difficult to
 identify suspect slopes, and given the size of recent slides, being
 wrong in this case would likely have dire consequences. Despite the
 Moderate danger rating, I would still encourage caution in the
 backcountry by sticking to moderate slope angles and avoiding large
 terrain features that could produce unsurvivable avalanches.

 Current Conditions:
 A light breeze yesterday kept temperatures cool along ridgelines, but
 in the sun and out of the wind it was very warm. Sunny slopes became
 wet on the surface and you can count on a serious crust on these
 aspects. Shady slopes stayed cool and should continue to hold great
 recrystallized powder.

 Most weather stations reported highs yesterday in the upper 20s to low
 30s. This morning there is a strong temperature inversion with the mid
 to upper 20s up high and only the single digits in Ketchum.

 Mountain Weather Forecast:
 The axis of the high pressure ridge will move over us today bringing
 another day of mild weather. Skies should be partly cloudy and light
 winds are expected from the west, shifting southwest later today. High
 temperatures are forecasted to reach the low 30s at most elevations.

 Overnight, a minor system moves through the Idaho Panhandle and we may
 be close enough to get a dusting of snow. A cold front will follow
 this system bringing colder temperatures for Tuesday.