This is Matt Lutz of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center
 with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for
 Tuesday, January 22, 2008 at 7:30 am.

 The Wattis Dumke Foundation & the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche
 Center bring you this advisory.

 Special Announcement:
 The Avalanche Rescue Training Park will be down for a few more days.

 We think we know what the problem is and have ordered a new part. Now
 we are just waiting on the delivery guy to show up with the goods.

 Bottom Line:
 Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be MODERATE. The snow
 on most slopes in our forecast area is generally stable. The chances
 of a human triggered avalanche are decreasing with each day of stable
 weather, but by the nature of the faceted layers within the snow pack,
 if a human trigger does start a slide it will likely be un-survivable.

 Primary Avalanche Concern:
 
 
 
 
 In the South and Central Valley a large grained faceted sugary snow
 layer is approximately 1 to 2 feet deep. In the North Valley, Smoky
 Mountains, and Sawtooth Mountains there are two faceted weak layers of
 concern. The first is approximately 2 to 3 feet deep and the second is
 approximately 4 to 5 feet deep. The possibility of a human trigger
 avalanche remains a concern.

 With the recent very cold temperatures, near surface faceting is
 occurring in most locations. The near surface facets are not a
 stability issue right now, but once they get buried they will likely
 become another faceted weak layer of concern.

 A very wise and well traveled mentor of mine taught me to never trust
 a facet and never discount their presence in the snowpack. The lack of
 recent natural or human trigger avalanches combined with recent
 stability tests have shown a generalized strengthening trend in most
 locations. With this said history has proven time and again that
 faceted snow layers are difficult to predict and have the propensity
 to propagate even into areas of relative strength. Likely triggers
 include steep rocky slopes, shallow areas, areas with highly variable
 snow distribution (i.e. high elevation terrain) and exposed slopes
 with overlying wind slabs. The use of uniform moderately angled slopes
 and good mountain travel technique should keep backcountry users out
 of trouble.

 Current Conditions:
 Sheltered terrain offers nice soft snow riding conditions in many
 locations. Higher elevation exposed slopes and ridgelines have been
 battered by winds over the last week. Steep south aspects have started
 to develop a thin zipper crust.

 This morning clear skies reveal the full moon in all its glory. The
 current high pressure has brought the customary temperature inversion
 to our forecast area. This mornings temperature in Ketchum is negative
 eleven while high on Baldy the temperature is a cozy 4 degrees.

 Ridgeline winds are very light out of the north.

 Mountain Weather Forecast:
 Today through Wednesday expect sunny skies and continued cold
 temperatures. The Sawtooth Mountains may see some increasing clouds
 this afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to be light out of the
 north on Tuesday shifting to the northeast on Wednesday. A low
 pressure disturbance currently off the coast of California will move
 into our forecast area by Thursday afternoon and bring with it a
 chance for some light snow.

 Tip for the day:
 We are approaching mid season, check your beacon batteries.