This is Matt Lutz of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center
 with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for
 Wednesday, January 23, 2008 at 7:30 am.

 Blaine County Search and Rescue & the Friends of the Sawtooth
 Avalanche Center bring you this advisory.

 Special Announcement:
 The Avalanche Rescue Training Park should be working again today.

 Chris got the new part installed yesterday. Hopefully that will fix
 the problem that we have been having. If you have any problems with
 the Avalanche Rescue Training Park please let us know.

 Bottom Line:
 Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be MODERATE. The snow
 on most slopes in our forecast area is generally stable. The chances
 of a human triggered avalanche are decreasing with each day of stable
 weather, but by the nature of the faceted layers within the snow pack,
 if a human trigger does start a slide it will likely be un-survivable.

 Primary Avalanche Concern:
 
 
 
 
 In the South and Central Valley a large grained faceted sugary snow
 layer is approximately 1 to 2 feet deep. In the North Valley, Smoky
 Mountains, and Sawtooth Mountains there are two faceted weak layers of
 concern. The first is approximately 2 to 3 feet deep and the second is
 approximately 4 to 5 feet deep. Additionally widespread near surface
 faceting is occurring throughout our forecast area. The possibility of
 a human trigger avalanche remains a concern.

 The lack of recent natural or human trigger avalanches combined with
 recent stability tests have shown a generalized strengthening trend in
 most locations. With this said history has proven time and again that
 faceted snow layers are difficult to predict and have the propensity
 to propagate even into areas of relative strength. Likely terrain
 triggers include steep rocky slopes, shallow areas, areas with highly
 variable snow distribution (i.e. high elevation terrain) and exposed
 slopes with overlying wind slabs. Additionally weather triggers
 include spikes in temperature, rapid wind loading or rapid snow fall.

 The use of uniform moderately angled slopes and good mountain travel
 technique should keep backcountry users out of trouble.

 Additional Discussion Lately I have been getting very interesting
 results with stability tests. Yesterday in the Mushroom Ridge area I
 got no results with a Rutschblock test but easy results with a
 Compression Test in the same pit. Additionally I have been seeing
 quite variable results from pit to pit within the same general
 vicinity. It is my opinion that the basic structure of the snow pack
 and the presence of a persistent weak layer are far more important
 then what a particular stability test shows you. When looking into a
 snowpit ask yourself the following 2 questions; first, is there a slab
 sitting on top of a weak layer? Second, does the weak layer consist of
 facets or surface hoar? If you are answering yes to these questions,
 then even a strong stability test score should not be weighed very
 heavily within your overall stability evaluation.

 Current Conditions:
 Sheltered terrain offers nice soft snow riding conditions in many
 locations. Higher elevation exposed slopes and ridgelines have been
 battered by winds over the last week. Steep solar aspects have
 developed a series of thin zipper crusts.

 Again this morning the full moon illuminates our valley. High pressure
 continues to provide stable weather, clear skies, and temperature
 inversions. Ketchum is sitting at negative seven degrees with calm
 winds. Baldy has a temperature of 15 degrees with light northwest
 winds.

 Mountain Weather Forecast:
 High pressure will dominate through today. Expect high elevation ridge
 top temperatures to reach the mid to high teens. Thursday should see
 increasing clouds with a chance of light snow showers during the
 afternoon and into the night. Friday through Sunday will see cloudy to
 mostly cloudy conditions with occasional snow showers.