This is Matt Lutz of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center
 with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for
 Thursday, January 24, 2008 at 7:30 am.

 The Sun Valley Telemark Series & Smiley Creek Lodge & the Friends of
 the Sawtooth Avalanche Center bring you this advisory.

 Bottom Line:
 Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be MODERATE. With the
 recent stable weather our snowpack has also been fairly stable. The
 specter of faceted snow still exists in most locations and requires
 slope by slope evaluation and conservative decision making. Human
 triggered avalanches remain a possibility and by the nature of our
 current snowpack would likely be large.

 Today a storm will start to impact our forecast area. Daytime snow
 accumulations are expected to be light and will not likely add enough
 weight to the snowpack to increase the hazard through today. Where
 ever you end up in the mountains today be aware of changing
 conditions.

 Primary Avalanche Concern:
 
 
 
 
 In general the majority of our forecast area has faceted snow
 somewhere within the snowpack. In the South and Central Valley faceted
 snow is approximately one to 2 feet deep. Many northerly aspect slopes
 in the South Valley have faceted throughout and there is hardly a slab
 left.

 In the North Valley, Smoky Mountains and Sawtooth Mountains the facet
 layer patterns a bit harder to pin point. In areas with a total
 snowpack depth of around six feet there are 2 facet layers of concern.

 The first is between 2 to 3 feet deep and the second is between 4 to 5
 feet deep. In areas with a total snowpack depth of less than 4 feet
 there is a facet layer down about 2 feet. Low to mid elevation terrain
 where ever you go, basically has a rotten faceted snow pack.

 Over the last week there have been no natural or human triggered
 avalanches reported. Stability test scores frankly have been all over
 the map. Some areas are producing hard to very hard results while many
 areas are still producing easy results. In situations like this it is
 important to remember that the 2 basic fundamental elements of an
 avalanche remain within the snowpack. That is a slab of cohesive snow
 sitting on top of an inherently weak layer. The third element is a
 trigger. If a human does trigger an avalanche with the current
 conditions it will likely be large and destructive.

 Due to the highly variable nature of our snowpack slope by slope
 analysis and conservative decision making remain prudent. The use of
 moderately angled slopes with uniform snow cover should keep
 backcountry users out of trouble.

 Current Conditions:
 I am happy to see the Weather Service calling for some new snow. There
 are sheltered northerly aspects that still offer nice soft snow riding
 conditions but they have been increasingly harder to find. Solar
 aspects now have a series of zipper crusts and high elevation terrain
 has been wind hammered. Some fresh snow will be very nice.

 Ketchum is under clear skies this morning with a temperature of
 negative three degrees. Baldy has a temperature of thirteen degrees
 with light but increasing winds out of the southeast. The Central
 Mountains are seeing moderate southeast winds.

 Mountain Weather Forecast:
 Today expect increasing clouds with light snow developing by mid
 afternoon. Snow totals for the Central Mountains will likely be
 between 3 to 5 inches by tomorrow morning. Today ridge top high
 temperatures with be in the 20s with light to moderate southerly
 winds. Friday and Saturday should see partly to mostly cloudy skies
 with occasional snow showers. A stronger Pacific storm is expected to
 roll in Sunday with the possibility of a solid shot of snow.