This is Chris Lundy of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for Monday, January 28, 2008 at 7:30 am. Bottom Line: Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be HIGH on all slopes. This means that natural and human triggered slides are likely. Since yesterday morning, our area has received 16-20 inches of new snow accompanied by very strong southerly winds. The greatest avalanche danger will exist on wind loaded slopes where wind slabs could break out several feet deep. Temperatures increased during the first part of the storm and there will likely be instability within the new storm snow. This storm added significant weight to facet layers that were buried 6-12 inches deep and near the ground prior to this storm. Natural avalanches have already been reported this morning at low elevations near Ketchum. Backcountry travel on or beneath slopes steeper than 30 degrees is not recommended today. This includes out of bounds areas on Baldy, as well as steep slopes above roads and side canyon trails. If youre on a slope steep enough to ski in the deep snow, youre pushing your luck. Primary Avalanche Concern: All this new snow combined with very strong southerly winds means one thing: you dont want to be anywhere near wind loaded slopes. Yesterday on Mushroom and Gladiator Ridges I got shooting cracks that propagated up to 30 feet just by stepping on a wind loaded slope. Keep in mind this was before the snowfall and wind really kicked in overnight. Winds began yesterday morning from the southeast and overnight shifted south to southwest. During the day today, they are forecasted to shift more westerly. This means that snow will have been transported on to a variety of aspects ranging from west to northwest to north, and today many east facing slopes will become loaded. Secondary Avalanche Concern: While the new snow that fell since yesterday morning is fairly low density, it still added a wallop of weight to the snowpack. Most weather stations are reporting around 1.5 inches of water weight. Adding to the problem is that from the time the storm started late yesterday morning, temperatures increased at least 5 degrees and peaked last night. Increasing temperatures during snowfall is not a good thing and usually results in instability within the storm snow. While I was in the field yesterday, only about 4-6 inches of snow had fallen but it was extremely sensitive. It failed very easily in shear tests and on steep slopes my partner and I could ski cut shallow slabs propagating up to 30 feet wide. It wasnt much of a danger yesterday, but today these new snow slabs will be deeper and much more hazardous. All this new snow is adding weight to a snowpack that has buried facet layers in many locations. During the dry spell in mid-January, loose sugary facets formed on the snow surface on many slopes. Prior to this storm, these layers were buried 6-12 inches deep. Some areas also have weak facets near the ground that are still a concern. This is especially true in the South and Central Valleys, and on some lower elevations slopes in this region the entire snowpack is weak and bottomless. Any slide breaking into a buried facet layer will likely be large and very dangerous. As you can see, our problem list today is long. The short of it is that it will be a poor choice to be on or under avalanche terrain today, and this includes the out of bounds terrain on Baldy and steep slopes above town or side canyon trails. Natural avalanches have already been reported crossing the road just north of Ketchum near Lake Creek. I wholeheartedly recommend going to the ski area or playing in the meadows with your snowmobile. Current Conditions: Somewhere between Oregon and here the storm stalled and we received more snow than forecast. Although the avalanche danger is High, enjoy the moment because this doesnt happen often. Overnight, most weather stations are reporting around 16-20 inches of new snow since yesterday morning. Mountain temperatures yesterday started out in the teens but reached the low to mid 20s by last night. This means that the new snow is likely inverted and top heavy. Currently its in the high teens to low 20s up high, and near 30 in the valley. Ridgeline winds over the past 24 hours have averaged 20-30 mph on both Baldy and Titus Ridge, with consistent gusts into the 40s and even 50s. The winds have been blowing from a southeast to south direction. Mountain Weather Forecast: A cold front that was supposed to reach our area about 4am has been rescheduled for late morning. Ahh, delays. Once the cold front hits, temperatures should start dropping and winds will become gusty and shift more westerly. Snowfall should taper off today but we could still pick up 4-6 inches of new snow by tomorrow morning in the lingering instability behind the cold front. Mountain temperatures might increase a few degrees this morning to the low 20s before plummeting this afternoon into the low teens to single digits. Valley temperatures are forecasted to fall into the single digits by tonight as well. Ridgeline winds will shift more westerly later today with speeds averaging 20-30 mph and gusting into the 40s.