This is Matt Lutz of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center
 with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for
 Thursday, January 31, 2008 at 7:30 am.

 The Sun Valley Telemark Series & Smiley Creek Lodge & the Friends of
 the Sawtooth Avalanche Center bring you this advisory.

 Special Announcement:
 This is Avalanche Awareness Week. See the Friends of the Avalanche
 Center link http://www.sawtoothavalanche.com/friends.php for a
 complete schedule.

 The Best of Banff Film Festival and SNFAC Fundraiser is this Thursday,
 Friday, and Saturday at the NexStage Theater in Ketchum.

 Film Trailer:
 http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=xeBYLLYnd_I&feature=related
 Film List: http://www.sawtoothavalanche.com/banff_film_list.doc
 Bottom Line:
 This morning the avalanche danger in the South Valley, Central Valley
 and Soldier Mountain area is estimated to be CONSIDERABLE. The
 avalanche danger in the North Valley, Smoky Mountains and Sawtooth
 Mountains is estimated to be CONSIDERABLE on wind loaded slopes.

 There is a storm approaching and should start to impact our forecast
 area by early to mid morning. In the next 24 hours this storm is
 expected to drop up to 10 inches of new snow around Ketchum and 10 to
 14 inches in the Central Mountains. Strong southwesterly winds are
 expected to accompany the storm. I expect the avalanche danger to rise
 rapidly as this storm intensifies through the day. If this storm hits
 us hard today the avalanche danger may well reach HIGH by this
 afternoon or evening.

 Primary Avalanche Concern:
 
 
 
 
 There is a widespread near surface faceted layer buried beneath
 Sundays storm snow. From my touring adventures over the last few days
 and numerous reports that we have received it appears that this layer
 is consistently been producing easy shears through out our forecast
 area. This layer is between 1 and 2 feet deep. With the addition of
 todays storm snow this could become a problem. I expect to see a
 nature cycle with this next storm and I highly suspect this layer will
 be a factor.

 The other common theme through out our forecast area at this time is
 weak faceted layers sandwiched between crust layers on solar aspects.

 During Sundays storm and on Monday this layer was responsible for
 numerous natural avalanches on solar aspects. These layers are now
 about 1.5 to 2 feet deep.

 The other aspect of our snowpack that we should not forget about is
 deeper buried faceted layers. Recently we have not seen much activity
 on these layers but they are still present in many locations. I
 suspect either of the following situations will reawaken these beasts;
 the first could be a large precipitation event and the second could be
 a significant rapid warming event. Diligent detective work is needed
 to determine if these layers are present where ever you go. These
 layers will be found between 3 and 4 feet deep.

 Secondary Avalanche Concern:
 
 
 
 
 The approaching storm is not expected to produce huge quantities of
 new snow but 10 to 14 inches is a respectable amount. The big story
 with this storm may end up being the strong southwesterly winds. The
 combination of these two factors will likely lead to significant new
 snow amounts deposited on southeast, east, northeast and north
 aspects. Watch out for newly formed wind pillows and drifts on exposed
 slopes and ridgelines at all elevations. Additionally the increasing
 daytime temperatures during the storm could lead to an upside down
 situation within the new snow.

 Additional Discussion Today the avalanche danger will likely rise
 rapidly as the storm intensifies. Avoid travel on or beneath slopes
 over 30 degrees. This includes the urban interface that surrounds
 Ketchum, Sun Valley, Hailey and Bellevue. Take your dog for a walk
 through town today and avoid side canyons and local hiking trails that
 lead into the hills. Please do not take your children sledding
 anywhere near or under step slopes.

 Current Conditions:
 This morning at 6 am we have light snow in Ketchum with a temperature
 of 9 degrees. Ridge top winds are moderate out of the south and slowly
 gaining intensity. Ridge top temperatures are in the single digits.

 Through out our forecast area low angle sheltered terrain offers
 excellent and safe powder snow riding.

 Mountain Weather Forecast:
 Today the National Weather Service has issued a Heavy Snow Warning for
 our area. This warning is in effect from 6 am this morning until 6 am
 Friday morning. Strong southwesterly winds are expected to develop
 through this morning. Snowfall intensity will likely be strongest
 through the early afternoon and into tonight.

 Friday is expected to see a clearing trend with only occasional
 lingering snow showers. Another storm is expected to roll into our
 area Saturday night into Sunday.