This is Matt Lutz of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center
 with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for
 Tuesday, February 5, 2008 at 7:30 am.

 The Wattis Dumke Foundation & the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche
 Center bring you this advisory.

 Bottom Line:
 Today the overall avalanche danger is estimated to be
 CONSIDERABLE. Southerly aspects through out our forecast area have
 a very dangerous crust layer buried approximately 2 feet deep. Any
 daytime heating or direct sunshine today will increase the danger on
 solar aspects.

 The South and Central Valley has a generally thin and weak snowpack
 with numerous problematic layers on all aspects. The North Valley and
 Sawtooth Mountains have a generally deeper snowpack and northerly
 aspects with more than 6 feet of snow probably offer the best
 stability found within our forecast area. Slope by slope terrain and
 snow analysis is required to increase safety margins.

 Primary Avalanche Concern:
 
 
 
 
 Through out our forecast area southerly aspect slopes are down right
 dangerous right now. These areas will become more dangerous today with
 any level of daytime heating or direct sunshine. In most south aspect
 locations there is a laminate of crust layers with facets in between.

 This problematic layering is approximately 2 feet deep. Yesterday from
 Baldy I observed notable slides in Warm Springs, Eagle Creek, Corral
 Creek and Parker Gulch. All of these slides appeared to have popped
 out on the 3rd of February when we got that brief shot of slightly
 warmer air and intense sunshine during the morning hours.

 Yesterday while touring off the back side of Seattle Ridge in the
 headwaters of Clear Creek I dug a pit at 8200 feet on a south aspect.

 The slope had a dozen ski tracks on it and was definitely step enough
 to slide. I got a Rutschblock Block two, quality 1 down about 2 feet.

 The failure layer was a crust with facets above and below. Scary.

 Additionally we keep getting reports of large settlements and creepy
 shears on solar aspects in our northern terrain.

 The South and Central Valley continues to see shears on faceted layers
 on all aspects. Steep slopes or gullies should be avoided especially
 in low to mid elevation terrain where the snowpack is very thin and
 weak.

 The North Valley and Sawtooth Mountains have a generally deeper
 snowpack. Northerly aspect terrain with more than 6 feet of snow seems
 to offer the best stability that our forecast area currently has to
 offer. With that said I personally have little confidence in the
 snowpack right now and I am sticking to low angle sheltered terrain
 for my powder turning. The solar aspects in our northern terrain are
 also dangerous at this time. Other potential problems to look out for
 are exposed slopes and ridgelines with wind slabs present, steep
 breakovers, thin rocky spots, areas with variable snow distribution or
 buried persistent weak layers. All of these areas should be avoided.

 Look for areas with a generally deeper and more homogenous snowpack.

 Two days ago there was a human/dog triggered avalanche on the north
 side of Galena Summit. This event goes to show that even in areas that
 have a generally deeper snowpack constant terrain and snow evaluation
 need to be conducted. Luckily the folks who were involved with this
 event were using good mountain travel techniques and it had a good
 outcome.

 Additional Discussion As we always teach in avalanche classes
 temperature is a very important weather component that influences
 stability. Right now our snowpack is still in its cold mid winter
 stage. Most forecasters around the west are currently nervously
 waiting for the first substantial February thaw that inevitably
 happens each year. When this first warm up happens our snowpack is
 primed to have a widespread cycle. This will be a significant event.

 Be aware of this as it is somewhere on our horizon.

 Current Conditions:
 This morning Ketchum is under mostly clear skies with a temperature of
 zero degrees. Ridge top winds are light out of the northwest with
 temperatures in the low single digits. Nice soft snow riding
 conditions are abundant in most locations so there is little need to
 recreate on or under steep slopes.

 Mountain Weather Forecast:
 Today we will briefly be under the influence of a high pressure
 system. Expect partly cloudy skies increasing to mostly cloudy by this
 evening. Winds should be light out of the northwest increasing into
 the moderate range and shifting to the west by tonight. A Winter Storm
 Warning has been issued and will take effect from 10 pm tonight thru 4
 pm on Wednesday. The Central Mountains could see another 6 to 10
 inches of snow and the valley bottoms 2 to 6 with this incoming storm.

 Additionally this next storm is expected to be packing significant
 westerly winds. Yet another storm is expected late Wednesday night and
 into Thursday.