This is Matt Lutz of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for Wednesday, February 6, 2008 at 7:30 am. Blaine County Search and Rescue & the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche Center bring you this advisory. Bottom Line: Today in the South and Central Valley the avalanche danger is estimated to be CONSIDERABLE. Overnight these areas only received a few new inches of snow. The snowpack in these areas is generally weak and southerly aspects are of particular concern due to a crust over facets layering problem approximately 2 feet deep. The danger in the North Valley and Sawtooth Mountains is estimated to be CONSIDERABLE on south through east aspects and MODERATE on west through north aspects. Overnight these areas received about 4 to 6 inches of new light density snow. Solar aspects in these areas also have problematic crust/facet layering approximately 2 feet deep. Additionally yesterday a moderate northerly wind built new wind slabs along higher elevation southerly facing exposed slopes and ridgelines. Todays outlook includes increasing northwest winds which may well continue to build new wind slabs on south and east aspects and the potential for daytime radiant heating on solar aspects. Primary Avalanche Concern: The snowpack in the South and Central Valley is generally very weak, variable and thin. Mid to low elevation snow is especially weak. Solar aspects are of particular concern as there is a crust/facet laminate buried approximately 2 feet deep that continues to produce very clean easy shears and whumpfing. East aspects are also of concern and the culprits here are faceted layers that continue to produce clean and easy shears. These layers are also approximately 2 feet deep. In the North Valley and Sawtooth Mountains the biggest problem seems to be located on solar aspects and involves a crust/facet interface approximately 2 to 2.5 feet deep. Yesterday I observed and received reports of large south facing natural avalanches that appeared to have released as a result of daytime warming. East aspects are also holding onto shears caused by buried near surface facets within the top couple of feet of snow. In addition to these pre-existing layering problems yesterdays wind and todays increasing winds are building new wind slabs and wind pillows on both south and east aspects. As the wind deposits snow onto these aspects the problem layers will get deeper and potentially produce fracture lines 3 to 4 feet deep. On north and west aspects in our northern terrain where the snow pack is generally deeper, we have not recently been seeing consistent troubling deep shears. Additionally the vast majority of natural activity in these areas has been occurring on south and east aspects. By definition I think that the danger on west and north aspects is MODERATE. With this said I do not have a lot of confidence in the snowpack anywhere there are buried persistent weak layers which still seems to be the predominate pattern. Avoid shallow, steep or rock terrain, areas with variable snow cover and terrain traps. To identify safer areas look for lower angle terrain with a deeper more consistent snow distribution. Secondary Avalanche Concern: Yesterday northerly winds were moving considerable amounts of snow around at higher elevations. This snow was primarily being deposited on south and east facing aspects. Last nights snow although not particularly deep will be easily transported by todays wind. This morning the winds are increasing in intensity and are out of the northwest. Today the winds are expected to continue to blow throughout the day. Expect newly formed wind slabs and wind pillows on south and east facing exposed slopes and ridgelines. Additional Discussion Today we will likely see periods of blue sky and sunshine. New snow is particularly vulnerable to daytime warming. If we do get periods of sunshine and the temperature warms even moderately I suspect that the danger on solar aspects will rise. Solar aspects are not to be trusted, especially in the South and Central Valley and around Baldy. Current Conditions: The National Weather Service has cancelled the Winter Storm Warning that was to be in affect until 4 pm today. At 6 am Ketchum is under mostly clear skies with a temperature of 5 degrees. The temperature on top of Baldy is 7 degrees and on Titus is 2 degrees. Winds are in the moderate range and increasing out of the northwest. Ridge top wind gusts are into the 30s in our core forecast area and into the 80s around the Soldier Mountain area. Nice soft snow riding conditions are easily found in sheltered terrain on most aspects. Ridgelines and exposed terrain is either wind pressed or has newly formed wind slabs. Mountain Weather Forecast: Today isolated snow showers may linger over the Central Mountains but I expect mostly clear conditions for the first half of the day. Daytime ridge top high temperatures are expected to be around 10 to 17 degrees. Another fast moving system is headed our way and we will likely see increasing clouds through the second half of the day. The next system will move into our area tonight and continue through most of tomorrow. The winds with this next storm are expected to remain in the 25 to 30 mph range out of the west. We may see another 4 to 6 inches of snow as well.