This is Janet Kellam of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for Saturday, February 9, 2008 at 7:30 am. The Sawtooth Society in partnership with Idaho's SNRA Mountain Goat license plate program & the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche Center bring you this advisory. Bottom Line: Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be CONSIDERABLE on steep windloaded slopes, especially any slopes that face east, south and west and get direct sun. This means natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches probable where these conditions are found. If the snow begins to feel warm and slightly sticky, seek lower angle terrain and avoid being directly beneath steep slopes. Sheltered, northerly facing slopes in areas with a deeper season long snowpack, such as Galena Summit and the Sawtooth Mountains, have MODERATE avalanche danger where wind slabs have not formed. Good stability and terrain evaluation skills are needed to travel in avalanche terrain with the existing variable conditions and warmer temperatures today. Primary Avalanche Concern: The wind will help to keep temperatures cool at upper elevations today, but mid to lower elevations will be susceptible to what may be our first truly warm and sunny day in a month. Lower elevation slopes have very weak snow at the base of the snowpack. Warm temperatures and sunshine cause the surface slabs of snow to creep downhill creating extra strain on the buried weak layers. Due to rapid windloading, recent slides off of Della Mountain and Carbonate in Hailey broke into these weak layers near the ground and were visible yesterday. Very steep, rocky slopes that pitch up into the sun will be the most susceptible to triggering today so avoid getting on or beneath these as the day warms up. This includes the slopes and side canyons around Hailey and Bellevue, too. Slopes with extra loading from wind drifted snow will be under additional stress. Yesterday, collapsing and whumphing of the snowpack occurred while I was at low elevations around Proctor Mountain and along upper exposed ridgelines. In the long term, warm days combined with cooler night time temperatures will help to stabilize the snowpack. Today is a transitional day. In general, the snowpack is consolidating and gaining some strength. Due to highly variable depths and some weak layering, ongoing evaluation as you travel is necessary to find the stable snow and avoid the unstable slopes. Weak snow exists 1 to 2 feet deep at most lower elevations on all aspects. At mid to upper elevations, other weak layers show poor stability approximately 2 feet deep between old sun crusts on southeast, south and southwest facing slopes. And finally, weak pockets and slopes exist at all elevations in steep rocky terrain. Secondary Avalanche Concern: Strong and sometimes relentless winds dominated our weather the past two days. A number of natural slides released at or beneath wind drifted ridgelines. Many of the slides were smaller surface slabs and did not run far, but several slides became quite large running full slope. For example, the upper east face of Sun Peak out Trail Creek propagated along most of a bowl and ran 1,000 vertical feet to the side canyon floor. The adjacent slope only produced a small slide from a wind loaded ridgeline. What this tells me is to be very cautious around any wind slabs today. The best option is to seek more sheltered slopes. We have no recent information from the Galena Summit area due to yesterdays road closure. The Galena area received more snow the past week and just as much wind so keep an eye out for surface instabilities in this region today on sheltered and wind affected slopes. Current Conditions: Winds decreased overnight in many locations but picked up in speed before sunrise. Baldy is reporting northwest winds gusting 30-40mph, Titus Ridge 20 to 30mph and Soldier Mountain gusting 90mph. Temperatures are on a warming trend with Baldy reporting 24 degrees at 6AM, Stanley 29, Titus 18 degrees and Ketchum and Hailey inverted but warming up from 8 degrees at 7AM. Skies are clear in the valley but the high peaks appear to have some clouds at 7AM. Very good powder conditions exist on slopes with a wind dappled texture. Other snow surfaces require sampling to get an idea of consistency, light sun crusts began to develop in a few places yesterday. Mountain Weather Forecast: Today we can expect a mix of sun and clouds with a chance of snowshowers in the mountains. At this point it is difficult to tell if the clouds will promote some greenhouse heating or help to keep temperatures cooler. High temperatures are forecast to be near 40 degrees on the valley floor, 30 degrees on Baldy and 24 degrees at 10,000ft. Temperatures will drop into the teens. Winds are expected to die down by evening but will huff and puff a bit more during the day, especially at upper elevations. Northwest winds should decrease from 20 mph average speeds and stronger gusts to an average 10mph from the west. A southwesterly flow with another round of snow storms beginning Sunday night.