This is Chris Lundy of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for Monday, February 11, 2008 at 7:30 am. Bottom Line: Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be MODERATE. Warm temperatures are helping to strengthen the snowpack, but it remains possible to trigger a slide in some areas. In the South and Central Valley, weak faceted snow buried about 2 feet deep is gaining stability but its hard to place much faith in such a poor snowpack structure. In our northern mountains, the snowpack is generally deeper and stronger and unstable conditions are more isolated. Use caution in steep, rocky terrain where the snowpack remains weak and shallow, and also on southerly facing slopes where a crust-facet combination may be buried 2-3 feet deep. Primary Avalanche Concern: In the South and Central Valley, beneath the top 2 feet of snow the snowpack is generally weak and rotten all the way to the ground. A ski pole poked into the snowpack eventually falls through a trap door into weaker snow beneath the overlying slab. Stability tests in Indian Creek yesterday showed that these facets are gaining strength, but we still experienced a few collapses which tells me all is not hunky-dory. By definition I believe the avalanche danger to be Moderate in this area but I would never trust my life to such a poor, top-heavy snowpack structure. Carefully evaluate steeper terrain or any slope with poor consequences. Depth hoar snowpacks like we have in our southern mountains can be notoriously tricky. I have more confidence in the snowpack north of about the SNRA, although there are still some problem areas that need to be taken into consideration. Some southerly aspects have an ugly crust-facet layer buried about 2-3 feet deep, but given the poor sliding and riding conditions on these slopes this problem can be easily avoided. Another concern are shallow weak spots that can often be found in steep, rocky terrain. Slides triggered in these pockets of weaker snow tend to propagate out into areas with a stronger snowpack. If you travel from an area where the snowpack was deep and strong to somewhere where it feels shallow, punchy, or bottomless, your hackles should be up. Additional Snowpack Discussion Strong northwest winds blew again overnight, but after last week I dont think theres much snow left to transport. Nonetheless, watch out for fresh wind drifts today, and while youre at it, you might as well avoid older wind slabs as well, especially in our southern mountains where they may be sitting atop weak, faceted snow. Current Conditions: Yesterday mountain temperatures climbed into the low 30s under partly cloudy skies, and a high of 40 degrees was recorded in Ketchum. Northwest winds increased early this morning and are blowing 20-30 mph on both Titus Ridge and Bald Mountain. Currently, mountain temperatures are in the upper teens to low 20s and its 33 degrees in the valley. Mountain Weather Forecast: A dirty northwest flow will remain over our region today, bringing partly to mostly cloudy skies. Ridgeline winds will continue from the northwest at 15-25 mph, and winds on the valley floor are expected to persist through the morning. Mountain temperatures should reach the mid 20s to near 30 degrees, and a high in the upper 30s is expected in the valley.