This is Chris Lundy of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center
 with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for
 Tuesday, February 12, 2008 at 7:30 am.

 The Wattis Dumke Foundation & the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche
 Center bring you this advisory.

 Bottom Line:
 Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be MODERATE. Warm
 temperatures are helping to strengthen the snowpack, but it remains
 possible to trigger a slide in some areas. In the South and Central
 Valley, weak faceted snow buried about 2 feet deep is gaining
 stability but its hard to trust such a poor snowpack structure. In our
 northern mountains, the snowpack is generally deeper and stronger and
 unstable conditions are more isolated. Use caution in steep, rocky
 terrain where the snowpack remains weak and shallow, and also on
 southerly facing slopes where a crust-facet combination may be buried
 2-3 feet deep.

 Primary Avalanche Concern:
 
 
 
 
 In the South and Central Valley, layers of weak faceted snow exist
 about 2 feet deep and also at the ground. In shallower locations,
 these layers are one in the same. Recent wind events have developed
 very thick wind slabs in some locations, and an observer sent in a
 great photo (see below) of a 6 foot deep wind slab on Morgan Ridge
 that probably released late last week. By definition I believe the
 avalanche danger to be Moderate in this area but I would never trust
 my life to such a poor, top-heavy snowpack structure. Carefully
 evaluate steeper terrain or any slope with poor consequences, and
 avoid large pillows of wind blown snow. Often deep wind slabs are
 triggered from the edges where theyre thin and your weight can affect
 the underlying weak layer.

 I have more confidence in the snowpack north of about the SNRA,
 although there are still some areas to keep an eye on. On Titus Ridge
 yesterday I dug on several solar aspects and found that the
 crust-facet layer 2-3 feet deep was strengthening. However, until we
 get more data supporting this trend I would continue to use caution on
 sunny slopes. Based on the breakable crust I found, most skiers and
 riders will avoid these aspects anyway. More northerly slopes in this
 region generally have a stronger, well consolidated snowpack but areas
 remain where weak snow still exists. Pay attention to steep, rocky
 slopes or anywhere the snowpack remains shallow as these areas tend to
 harbor weak, faceted snow.

 Current Conditions:
 Consolidated powder and near surface faceted conditions can be found
 on many sheltered, northerly facing slopes, but it definitely takes
 some hunting to avoid effects from recent wind events. Sunny slopes
 should be ruled out by all but the most masochistic.

 Mountain temperatures yesterday reached the low 30s under mostly sunny
 skies, and valley temperatures reached the mid 40s. Strong ridgeline
 winds dropped off fairly abruptly late yesterday morning, except on
 the high peaks near Soldier Mountain where theyve continued to average
 35-45 mph with much stronger gusts. On Baldy and Titus, winds this
 morning are averaging 10-20 mph from the northwest, and temperatures
 are in the low to mid 20s.

 Mountain Weather Forecast:
 Partly cloudy skies will continue today, with increasing clouds
 expected in the afternoon to evening in advance of a minor storm
 system passing to our north. Temperatures today are forecasted to
 reach the upper 20s to mid 30s in the high country and the low 40s
 down in the valley. Ridgeline winds should continue at 10-20 mph from
 the northwest. The aforementioned system will reach our area after
 midnight, followed by a cold front early tomorrow morning. We may see
 1-2 inches of new snow, but the bulk of the moisture will be further
 north.