This is Matt Lutz of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for Thursday, February 14, 2008 at 7:30 am. The Sun Valley Telemark Series & Smiley Creek Lodge & the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche Center bring you this advisory. Special Announcement: As many of you probably read in yesterdays local newspaper, this years deep snowpack is making life particularly tough for the local deer and elk populations. Please make a concerted effort not to disturb wildlife. If you notice your presence causing the animals to move around youre already to close. If you find animals in places that you wanted to go, please change your plan and dont force the animals to change theirs. This includes motorized and non-motorized recreationalists and especially dogs. Please keep Fido on a leash and under control. Thanks Bottom Line: Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be MODERATE. This means human triggered avalanches are possible. The areas with the highest potential for a human triggered avalanche are on southerly aspects that have been recently wind loaded. Most solar aspects within our forecast area have a troubling crust/facet interface approximately 2 feet deep. The last 24 hours have seen moderate to strong northerly winds. Look for newly deposited wind slabs along any ridgelines that face the southern half of the compass. Primary Avalanche Concern: In the South and Central Valley the snowpack is generally thin and weak. The North Valley and Sawtooth Mountains have a deeper and generally stronger snowpack. Throughout our forecast area most southerly and some westerly aspects have an ugly crust/facet interface approximately 2 feet deep. This interface continues to produce easy planar shears with stability tests. Caution should be used in any area where this interface exists and in areas that have a thin and variable snowpack. The good news here is that the riding conditions on most southerly aspects are so poor that anybody with a desire for healthy knee cartilage probably will not venture into these areas. Secondary Avalanche Concern: Over the last 24 hours our forecast area has seen consistent moderate to strong winds out of the north. Although these winds have been significant there has not been a lot of snow available for transport since last Thursdays wind event battered our snowpack. Yesterday nights inch of new snow did get rapidly redistributed to exposed slopes and ridgelines on aspects that face the southern half of the compass. Be on the lookout for newly formed wind slabs and pillows. Snowpack Discussion The recent warm temperatures by now have had an overall positive effect on the stability of our snowpack. Yesterday and todays high temperatures are generally cooler and this is also helping to solidify the snowpack. In conversations I have had with folks about the warm temperatures over the last few days, people have used phrases like locked up and welded when referring to the recent settling of the snow pack. In my opinion these types of phrases are overstatements. Although I do think that non solar aspects with a deep snowpack have gained considerable strength, areas with a thin variable snowpack and any solar aspect with the crust/facet interface are still highly suspect and should be approached with caution. Stability is slowly getting better but we are not out of the woods yet. Current Conditions: Sheltered north and east aspects currently offer nice soft snow riding conditions. West and south aspects offer many great options if you are into survival skiing. The wind has done a number on most exposed slopes. Have fun! Ketchum is under clear skies with a temperature of 26 degrees. Baldy has a temperature of 9 degrees. Ridge tops are seeing light northerly winds with moderate gusts. Mountain Weather Forecast: Today through the weekend our forecast area will be under the influence of high pressure. Today expect mostly clear skies with a northerly flow. Winds are expected to slowly decrease through the day. Ridge top high temperatures today will be in the high 20s around Baldy and in the high teens in the Central Mountains. Higher temperatures are in store for the upcoming Presidents day weekend.