This is Janet Kellam of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for Saturday, February 16, 2008 at 7:30 am. The Sawtooth Society in partnership with Idaho's SNRA Mountain Goat license plate program & the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche Center bring you this advisory. Bottom Line: In the North Valley and Sawtooth Mountains: Generally LOW danger exists with isolated areas of MODERATE danger in rocky, wind drifted terrain. In the Central and South Valley and areas with a shallower snowpack: MODERATE danger exists. The concerns in these areas are for wind slabs and for the January snowload on a structurally weak snowpack. Weak snow layers are still widespread near the base of the snowpack and deeper, larger slides are possible. Today should be cooler and cloudier, but watch for an increasing danger of triggering wet sluffs on steep, southerly facing slopes in areas that become quite warm or get much sun. Primary Avalanche Concern: The greatest chance of triggering an avalanche today will be where wind drifts or windslabs have formed on top of weak, loose grained faceted snow. This condition will be found along or beneath exposed ridgelines and in windswept terrain. Secondary Avalanche Concern: The snowpack has been subjected to lots of wind and a number of cycles of heating and cooling. All of this weather activity has helped to consolidate the layers in the snow and left a supportive but less than appealing snow surface for recreation. The buried weak layers around the Central and South Valley have gained strength but are still weak and non-cohesive when compared to the overlying slab of January snow. The January snow averages 1 &1/2 to 2 feet deep on a foot or so of weaker base layers, but wind drifted slopes that avalanched last weekend produced fracture lines up to 5ft deep. Although not highly reactive now, this poor layering structure warrants caution. Especially where wind loaded or on sunny, steeper slopes during the warmest part of the day. Punchy, weak snow exists in isolated pockets or on windswept slopes in the northern sector. Otherwise the snowpack is deeper and more consistent up north and back in the Smoky Mountains. Low danger does not mean no danger, and we do have variable conditions even in regions with a deeper more consistent snowpack. Evaluate each area you travel into today and dont stop using safe travel practices such as one person on a slope at a time and carefully watching each other from safe locations. Current Conditions: Light snow showers this morning will leave us with dust on crust conditions, not more than an inch or two is expected. Wind and temperature crusts are prevalent on all aspects at lower elevations, but sheltered, shady slopes at mid to upper elevations do offer dense powder conditions. South facing slopes should have supportive crusts in some locations due to yesterdays sun and warm temperatures. Northwest winds have increased in speed this morning, gusting up to 40mph on Titus Ridge and stronger speeds along the Camas Prairie. Thin, shallow windslabs will form on top of older ones if we get enough snow. The winds may help keep the snow surface cool. A temperature inversion again this morning has mild 20 degree temperatures at mid to upper elevations. With much sunshine, these slopes will heat up more quickly than the valley floor. Yesterday, some sheltered weather sites at mid to upper elevations recorded temperatures in excess of 40 degrees while Ketchum Ranger District only made 32 degrees in the shade. Mountain Weather Forecast: Scattered snow showers and northwest winds 15 to 25mph with stronger gusts are forecast for today with skies clearing by afternoon or evening. The winds are expected to die down slightly by evening but pick up again tomorrow. It should be a bit cooler today in the mountains. Temperatures will reach 25 to 28 degrees at upper elevations and around 35 degrees at mid elevations. The valley floor should see temperatures climb above 30 degrees to near 40 degrees, especially if the clouds clear out. The residual cold front will lower temperatures tonight with single digits in the valleys and temperatures in the teens at upper elevations. Tip for the day: The beacon park is up and running on Sun Valley Road. We are having intermittent problems which only require a quick system reset by forecasters. We'd like to see it get lots of use so we can get things figured out. If it does freeze up, please give us a call on the observer line and leave a message 622-0099 or stop by Ketchum Ranger Station next door so we can keep it going.