This is Matt Lutz of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center
 with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for
 Wednesday, February 20, 2008 at 7:30 am.

 Blaine County Search and Rescue & the Friends of the Sawtooth
 Avalanche Center bring you this advisory.

 Bottom Line:
 Today the avalanche danger in the South Valley, Central Valley and
 Soldier Mountain area is estimated to be MODERATE. The combination
 of a poor overall snowpack structure and 2 nights of only light
 freezes mean that human triggered avalanches are possible especially
 through the warmer hours of the day.

 The avalanche danger in the North Valley and Sawtooth Mountains is
 estimated to be LOW. The avalanche danger on solar aspects in
 these areas will move to MODERATE in the pm hours with daytime
 warming. A crust facet interface about 2 feet deep on solar aspects is
 still present and still producing easy clean shears.

 Expect increasing danger on all solar aspects with daytime warming.

 Primary Avalanche Concern:
 
 
 
 
 There has only been a light freeze both of the last two nights. Today
 our forecast area should see slightly cooler temperatures than
 yesterday. Higher elevations will likely spend most of the day near or
 above freezing. I think it is unlikely that we will see natural wet
 slab avalanching today. Due to the overall poor snowpack structure in
 the southern terrain and the crust facet interface on solar aspects
 through out our forecast area, I do think that there is a chance of
 human trigger avalanching on solar aspects. The highest chances for
 this to occur will be during the pm hours when daytime warming is at
 its peak.

 The skiing on solar aspects is pretty darn close to corn. This may
 start to draw more folks out on to these slopes. Keep in mind that wet
 snow avalanching is notoriously hard to predict. Additionally many of
 the natural signs of instability like cracking and whumpfing do not
 really occur in moist wet snow as obviously as they do in cold winter
 snow. As soon as solar aspects soften to the point where you are
 penetrating more than 2 inches into the snow surface, it is time to
 get off them.

 Secondary Avalanche Concern:
 
 
 
 
 In the southern terrain the snowpack depth is highly variable,
 generally very thin and weak. Although we have not seen much as far as
 recent natural or human triggered avalanches in these areas and
 snowmobilers have been putting up some very impressive lines, the
 overall structure of the snowpack is not trustworthy. This is why I
 cannot with a good conscious place the danger rating in these areas at
 LOW. I believe that human triggered avalanches in these areas are
 definitely possible especially with daytime warming.

 Through out our forecast area and this includes or northern terrain
 and higher elevations solar aspects have a crust facet interface about
 2 feet deep. This layer is not to be trusted especially as the
 snowpack picks up heat with daytime warming. As long as these slopes
 are frozen I think the avalanche danger is LOW, but as they thaw
 the avalanche danger will increase to MODERATE.

 Current Conditions:
 Optimists can find reasonable riding conditions on sheltered shady
 slopes and corn is on the horizon! Realists are praying for a 12 inch
 reset. Pessimists are going ice fishing. There is something out there
 for everyone.

 Ketchum is under mostly clear skies with a temperature of 14 degrees.

 Upper elevation ridgelines have temperatures in the mid to high 20s
 with very light winds out of the southeast.

 Mountain Weather Forecast:
 A high pressure ridge is causing a split jet over the northwestern
 states. This condition will keep the Central Idaho Mountains dry until
 Thursday night. Light snow is expected late Thursday night through
 Friday. More precipitation is expected Saturday night into Sunday.

 Significant accumulations with these two storms are not expected.

 Neither of these storms is expected to be packing much wind, so if we
 can squeezes 6 to 8 inches of snow out of them those realists may get
 their reset.