This is Matt Lutz of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center with
 your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for Wednesday,
 February 27, 2008 at 7:30 am.

 Blaine County Search and Rescue & the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche
 Center bring you this advisory.

 Bottom Line:
 This morning the avalanche danger is estimated to be LOW. By midday
 the avalanche danger on solar aspects will move to MODERATE due to
 daytime heating. Todays upper elevation ridge top temperatures in the
 South Valley are expected to be in the mid 40s and in the North Valley
 in the high 30s to low 40s. Human triggered wet slides will be possible
 on solar aspects as these areas heat up and the surface snow becomes
 wet.

 Thin sensitive wind slabs are present on steep high elevation
 ridgelines. These slabs are primarily found on east, northeast and
 north facing aspects.

 Primary Avalanche Concern:

 
 

 

 

 Todays high temperatures are expected to be quite warm. Expect solar
 aspects to become wet, loose and unstable. This will likely happen
 around 11 oclock and continue to deteriorate until dusk. There are 2
 main issues of concern with this scenario. First, the surface snow will
 likely be easily triggered by human activity on any moderately steep
 solar aspect. These slides will likely be on the small side but have
 the potential to entrain a lot of snow and become more threatening. The
 second concern is that one of these wet loose slides could stress a
 deeper layer and kick off a much bigger slide. Many solar aspects at
 higher elevations through out our forecast area still have a crust
 facet interface approximately 2 feet deep that continues to be a
 concern.

 Stay off solar aspects as the day heats up and the surface snow becomes
 wet. Watch for roller balls and fresh point releases as evidence of
 deteriorating stability. Steer clear of gullies and any slopes with
 steep solar aspects above.

 Secondary Avalanche Concern:

 
 

 

 

 Thin sensitive soft wind slabs can still be found on steep east,
 northeast and north facing slopes along high elevation ridgelines.

 These slabs are generally within the top 6 inches of new snow and are
 easily ski cut. These slabs are unlikely to bury a person, but could
 knock a skier off his or her feet in terrain that is much better
 navigated while standing.

 Current Conditions:
 Northerly and easterly facing slopes at higher elevations currently
 offer excellent powder snow riding. Solar aspects at all elevations
 have surface crusts. Lower elevations offer a mixed bag of riding
 conditions. Most slopes in these areas have a surface crust from the
 sun, recent warm temperatures or both.

 Ketchum is under mostly clear skies with a temperature of 17 degrees.

 Baldy has a temperature of 36 degrees and the Titus weather station has
 a temperature of 31 degrees. Ridgeline winds are light out of the
 northwest.

 Mountain Weather Forecast:
 Today expect partly to mostly cloud skies as a high pressure ridge
 slides through our forecast area. Tonight through Friday a series of
 weak systems will slide through our forecast area and bring cloudy
 conditions but not much in the way of precipitation. Higher elevation
 temperatures are expected to be at or above freezing for the next 2 to
 3 days. A stronger storm system is expected Friday evening into
 Saturday. This system should bring a breezy southwest flow and a
 combination of snow and rain.