This is Matt Lutz of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center with
 your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for Thursday,
 February 28, 2008 at 7:30 am.

 The Sun Valley Telemark Series & Smiley Creek Lodge & the Friends of
 the Sawtooth Avalanche Center bring you this advisory.

 Bottom Line:
 This morning the avalanche danger is estimated to be LOW. By midday
 the avalanche danger on solar aspects will move to MODERATE due to
 daytime heating. Overnight our forecast area had a reasonable freeze at
 all elevations. Todays upper elevation high temperatures will be in the
 mid 40 degree range. Human triggered wet slides will be possible on
 solar aspects as these areas heat up and the surface snow becomes wet.

 It may still be possible to find thin wind slabs on steep high
 elevation ridgelines. These slabs will primarily be found on east,
 northeast and north facing aspects.

 Primary Avalanche Concern:

 
 

 

 

 Todays high temperatures will be very similar to yesterdays and are
 again expected to be quite warm. Expect solar aspects to become wet,
 loose and unstable. This will likely happen around 11 oclock and
 continue to deteriorate until dusk. There are 2 main issues of concern
 with this scenario. First, the surface snow will likely be easily
 triggered by human activity on any moderately steep solar aspect. These
 slides will likely be on the small side but have the potential to
 entrain a lot of snow and become more threatening. The second concern
 is that one of these wet loose slides could stress a deeper layer and
 kick off a much bigger slide. Many solar aspects at higher elevations
 through out our forecast area still have a problem crust facet
 interface approximately 2 feet deep.

 Stay off solar aspects as the day heats up and the surface snow becomes
 wet. Watch for fresh roller balls and point releases as evidence of
 deteriorating stability. Limit exposure on slopes that have large
 cornices hanging overhead. Steer clear of gullies, terrain traps and
 any slopes with steep solar aspects above.

 Secondary Avalanche Concern:

 
 

 

 

 Thin soft wind slabs may still be found on steep east, northeast and
 north facing slopes along high elevation ridgelines. These slabs are
 generally within the top 6 inches of snow and are easily ski cut. These
 slabs are unlikely to bury a person, but could knock a skier off his or
 her feet in terrain that is much better navigated while standing.

 Current Conditions:
 High elevation shady slopes offer some very nice soft snow riding
 conditions. Solar aspects and most slopes at lower elevations currently
 have a surface crust caused by either the sun, temperature or a
 combination of both. This is a good time to go for that high mountain
 tour that you have been pondering.

 This morning Ketchum is under clear skies with a temperature of 24
 degrees. The Titus weather station has a temperature of 19 degrees and
 Baldy has a temperature of 25 degrees. Winds are light out of the
 northwest with occasional moderate gusts.

 Mountain Weather Forecast:
 Today expect warm temperatures and mostly clear skies with increasing
 clouds this afternoon and evening. Occasional very light snow showers
 are possible in the high central mountains. These conditions will
 persist through Friday. A storm is expected to enter our forecast area
 on Saturday. This system is expected to be warm and windy at upper
 elevations. Valley locations should see a combination of rain and snow.

 Upper elevations should see snow with totals in the 3 to 6 inch range.